The Unrest in Kazakhstan Thread

La Águila Negra

Ostrich
Protestant
This thread is for everything related to the current social unrest in Kazakhstan. Today there was rapid escalation though it's still very early to draw conclusions.

The protests started in response to a rise in fuel prices but quickly turned into protests against the current authoritarian Kazakh government.

The situation.

* The Kazakh government under Tokayev has resigned but continues to function as an interim government
* In many cities government buildings were stormed and burned down
* State of emergency has been declared
* The (some say former) residence of the President was set on fire
* Widespread clashes with security forces
* Many police officers and soldiers have been disarmed. Some rumours of protestors getting their hands on large quantities of weapons (in gun stores/ police arsenals?)
* Several videos circulate of police and military units changing sides
* Power and internet outages in large parts of the country
* In Astana and Almaty telephone communication has been cut off. Nazarbayev's personal TV channel is off air as well.
* Aktau and Almaty airports are closed
* Large number of private jets have left Kazakhstan for other Central Asian countries, Russia and some European countries. One of these jets allegedly belonged to the daughter of Nazarbayev.
* Russian and Turkish governments have voiced their concerns.

Kazakhstan shares a massive border with both China and Russia, and is a resource-rich country (gas, oil, uranium etc.). It is part of both the SCO and the CSTO, and has a central role in the BRI. Kazakhstan is a large exporter of fossil fuels to China

The smoke is clearing already:



 
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La Águila Negra

Ostrich
Protestant
In the Ukraine Lounge Thread several posts were made on the topic.

I have included them below.

By DonQuixote

Does anyone know about the massive protests in Kazakhstan over fuel price hikes? Apparently, according to some of my friends, the internet has been shut down and they have no electricity. One of my friends is afraid to go outside and fears being shot by government police. Apparently, according to her, the regime may actually start to use lethal force, and some are wondering if Russia will take northern territories.

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/kazakhstan-rocked-days-fierce-protests-after-sharp-fuel-price-hike

By LaAguilaNegra

Too early to tell. Fact that these protests coincide with a more stern Russian position on Ukraine and NATO in general is suspicious, but could be a coincidence too.

If this truly is a regime change operation on the wave of genuine anger it could mean trouble. If it's not it might also be over by tomorrow. The current Kazakh government is like Ukraine pre-Maidan. Old Soviet guard, highly corrupt, aligned to Russia through the CSTO etc but unreliable and playing all sides.

I've been checking out a couple of unofficial Russian TG/Twitter channels. They sound nervous. The Duma has not yet mentioned the motives and possible foreign (read US) actors. Up till now there is no ethnic/religious angle in these protest, but if they continue that could change. The number of Russians in Kazakhstan has decreased drastically since the Fall of the USSR but ~3.5 million still live there (aside from countless other ethnic groups like Tatars, Chechens, Koreans, Ukrainians, Germans etc)

As for the domestic Kazakh situation, it's not good. Country is in a bad economic state and has been suffering from extremely corrupt and poor Soviet-era leadership. This is despite Kazakhstan being a resource-rich country. All the gas is exported abroad and the money is going into the pockets of a select few. Maybe Nazarbayev has finally overplayed their hand, maybe not.

Kazakhstan's internal security apparatus is extremely repressive and violent. Long prison sentences for political opponents of Nazarbayev and his cronies are not uncommon. Islamist hardliners sometimes disappear. Shooting protestors would be the dumbest thing to do now - but many of these old school dictators only know the power of force

The Army has already been mobilized. State of emergency is declared. The government has resigned - but will continue as interim government until Nazarbeyev appoints the next stooge.

Like you I have a couple of Kazakh friends. One guy especially keeps me updated. Tells me everybody is fed up of Nazarbayev and his stooges. The people call Nazarbayev The Pharaoh, because that's how he behaves. Also says that Nazarbayev is an open Freemason who has constructed the new capital Astana in such a way that its rife with occult symbiology. Tells me that Nazarbayev is big buddies with Tony Blair and that Covid tyranny in Kazakhstan is on par with Austria or Lithuania.

Intel Slava has the best analysis



By LaAguilaNegra

Kazakhstan not good right now. Government buildings stormed across the country, military vehicles/police vehicles on fire. First reports of military/police shooting, some police get beaten up very heavily

The best source for videos and photos is the Telegram channel Intel Slava.

Statements from the Russian Federation.




Screenshot_20220105_175955_compress37.jpg
 
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budoslavic

Eagle
Orthodox
Gold Member
There are more videos at the disclose.tv telegram channel. Anyway, how did these videos leak if the there is no internet?
Most people in Europe own a mobile phone so if there is no internet, most likely they are using mobile network (i.e., LTE) as a fallback to leak the videos. It really depends on the mobile carrier's network coverage and whether if it's shut down or not.


Edit.

 
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budoslavic

Eagle
Orthodox
Gold Member
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Edit. One can follow @jardemalie for Kazakhstan protest updates. She's been posting tons of videos and updates on her Twitter page. Note: She's a "refugee in Belgium" and is the "sister of Kazakhstan's former political prisoner Iskander Yerimbetov" according to her Twitter profile.
 
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Don Quixote

Pelican
Orthodox Inquirer
OK, key question: is this a grass roots uprising or a Maidan-style takeover by TPTB?
And secondly, what does this mean in the greater geopolitical context? Will Russia take parts of Kazakhstan? How will U.S. respond? In light of what is going on in Ukraine I think this really throws a wrench into the mix. My friend hasn't responded in a while, my guess is the electricity is out and phones are dying.
 

Seth_Rose

Pelican
Gold Member
OK, key question: is this a grass roots uprising or a Maidan-style takeover by TPTB?
I don't see a grass roots uprising as too likely... it escalated towards violence quite quickly. The ruling elite of the country has been in power since the end of the USSR. I don't see how a hike in gas prices after 30 years would suddenly trigger such a dramatic turn. That said, if this is taken in conjunction with strict Covid measures affecting the populace it seems more likely.

I know Central Asia fairly well (spent time in the region, researched it, etc.) and despite the heavy-handed governments, they remain relatively stable. Also, if the government is thrown out, we wouldn't expect to see a fully pozzed gov. The level of NGOs and democracy activists and the like isn't on the same level as it was in Ukraine or Georgia prior to their respective coups.

Again, it's a pretty rapidly developing situation, and I haven't studied it much. But I would imagine that, given it's geopolitical importance and vast amount of resources, China and Russia will idly sit by and watch Kazakhstan be handed over to the West (if we do assume that's who's behind this).
 

presidentcarter

Ostrich
Protestant
Gold Member
Again, it's a pretty rapidly developing situation, and I haven't studied it much. But I would imagine that, given it's geopolitical importance and vast amount of resources, China and Russia will not idly sit by and watch Kazakhstan be handed over to the West (if we do assume that's who's behind this).
Fixed that for you.
 
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La Águila Negra

Ostrich
Protestant
I don't see a grass roots uprising as too likely... it escalated towards violence quite quickly. The ruling elite of the country has been in power since the end of the USSR. I don't see how a hike in gas prices after 30 years would suddenly trigger such a dramatic turn. That said, if this is taken in conjunction with strict Covid measures affecting the populace it seems more likely.

I know Central Asia fairly well (spent time in the region, researched it, etc.) and despite the heavy-handed governments, they remain relatively stable. Also, if the government is thrown out, we wouldn't expect to see a fully pozzed gov. The level of NGOs and democracy activists and the like isn't on the same level as it was in Ukraine or Georgia prior to their respective coups.

Again, it's a pretty rapidly developing situation, and I haven't studied it much. But I would imagine that, given it's geopolitical importance and vast amount of resources, China and Russia will idly sit by and watch Kazakhstan be handed over to the West (if we do assume that's who's behind this).

A bit of both.

Look at which dogs are barking and which ones are gleefully rubbing their hands. Not a peep about the violence from the EU, and the US issued a strange warning in mid December already. Some of the local leaders are already showing their true colors as agents of the West

Jenn Psaki denying involvement

Screenshot_20220106_053104.jpg

I already posted this screenshot but forgot to add the description. WarGonzo (Semen Pegov) has very good connections within the Kremlin and many other FSU states. His track record is impressive.

Screenshot_20220105_175955_compress37.jpg

Tokayev has held a press conference saying that this is a foreign operation


Having said that, a fully controlled Maidan-like uprising would never rail against vaccination. So there are loose elements within this decentralized movement


--

Intel Slava is giving mixed messages on this one. On the one hand it reports that the CSTO has convened and has stated that it will deploy peacekeepers in Kazakhstan, on the other hand it indicates that military deployment is still being mulled

Screenshot_20220106_050932_compress17.jpgScreenshot_20220106_050911_compress15.jpg

Screenshot_20220106_050515_compress28.jpgScreenshot_20220106_050741_compress50.jpg
 
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presidentcarter

Ostrich
Protestant
Gold Member
Tension between Russia and the West has soared amid concern over a Russian military buildup along Ukraine's border, and fear that Putin could be gearing up to invade Ukraine.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Wednesday that Kazakhstan had not requested Russia's help in dealing with the protests, adding that it can solve its own problems.

"It's important that no one from the outside interferes," Peskov said, according to state-run RIA Novosti news agency.

MSM Source: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kazakhstan-riots-protests-almaty-resignation-nursultan-nazarbayev/



It's a bit unclear if that last sentence applies to the Kazakh situation or the Ukraine one mentioned in the prior sentence, but I'll assume it's logical and applies to the Kazakh. So when Peskov says 'outside' he means outside the region, outside the CSTO, outside what exactly?

Also a Novosti article translated:

(https://www.novosti.rs/c/planeta/sv...edsednik-rusija-protesti-najnovije-vesti-odkb)

The President of Kazakhstan, Kasim Jomart Tokayev, addressed today for help to the heads of state of the Organization for Collective Security (CSTO), a military alliance led by Russia.

- I consider it appropriate to address the CSTO partners - said Tokayev.

He points out that terrorist gangs are taking control of the most important infrastructure facilities in the country.

It should be reminded that the CSTO members are Russia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
 

La Águila Negra

Ostrich
Protestant
Update on the largest city Almaty. Authorities have lost complete control of the city for about 24 hours now. Lots of looting going on.

A military operation has started to bring the city back under control. The airport has been taken back






Graphic videos circulating. Dozens of people killed in Almaty.
 

budoslavic

Eagle
Orthodox
Gold Member
Something doesn't add up. The whole thing reeks outside forces (i.e., foreign agents, EU, NATO, etc.) pushing for whatever agenda (i.e., change of political power). Edit. In one of La Águila Negra's posts, it mentioned "The west is preparing a new comedian or journalist for you as head government". This is what I meant by outside forces. It reminds me of the Orange Revolution in Ukraine.


German...flag
Flag is actually Belgium. Yeah, I noticed the EU flag as well, which set off an alarm bell in the back of my head. Her profile stated the following:
Lawyer, #refugee granted political asylum in Belgium, sister of #Kazakhstan former #political_prisoner Iskander #Yerimbetov


Security forces entered Almaty to regain control of the city.



Shots fired in Almaty. Civilian population is armed as they have been seizing weapons and arsenal from police and military for hours.



"Protesters" looting the Kazajistan National Security Committee building in Almaty. The airport was seized this morning.

 
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