Ukraine 2019 Election Thread

Who do you think is likely to win?

  • Poroshenko

    Votes: 3 18.8%
  • Tymoshenko

    Votes: 7 43.8%
  • Uncertain/Third Option

    Votes: 6 37.5%

  • Total voters
    16

Oaks

Robin
First of all, let me explain the importance of this thread.
The election is coming up on 31 March 2019 with at second and final round on 21 April 2019.

There are 2 candidates that have a realistic shot- Poroshenko and Tymoshenko.

If Poroshenko wins, the status quo remains (slow IMF mandated reforms, continued IMF loans).

If Tymoshenko wins, we are likely to see major change. For anyone following the rhetoric and past history, her presidency means lower chances for IMF loans as she clearly rejects IMF mandated reforms.

You can see the way Western politicians view her by reading the Atlantic council's articles on her. (http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/ukraine)


Without IMF loans, the other option would be Russian/Chinese loans and/or a major crisis.

If the global economy enters a recession or period of slowed growth ("OECD lowers global growth forecast for 2019"), this combined with the political turmoil can lead to significant changes for Ukraine. This is likely to have significant effects on Europe as a whole as well as other countries.


What do people here predict?
A currency crisis? Increased armed conflict? Status quo?

Latest polls here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Ukrainian_presidential_election,_2019

Let's try and keep things civil and relatively objective.
 

Batka

 
Poroshenko is trailing badly in the polls and his approval rating is through the floor. What better way to distract the proles than to provoke another war with Russia...

this time in the Sea of Azov.

https://news.sky.com/story/russia-fires-at-ukraine-ships-in-black-sea-11563775

Ukraine says Russia has opened fire on its ships in the Black Sea.

One vessel was hit by the strikes, injuring a crew member, the Ukrainian navy said.

There were also unconfirmed reports that three Ukrainian ships had been captured by Russia - after a day of rising tensions off the coast of Crimea.
 

Oaks

Robin
Nothing too special happening with the currency, seems like the national banks has that stabilized.

People on the steet are saying this is due to Poroshenko trailing in the polls to Tymoshenko.

Newspapers saying that martial law will not prevent IMF cooperation with Ukraine.
 

Foolsgo1d

Peacock
The current leader is unpopular isn't he? I expect some form of military control with him at the helm so he doesn't get booted out and thus ends up getting killed by someone who doesnt like him.

He wants to escalate and is intending to bring his cousins - aka US and EU into the fray.
 

Oaks

Robin
Yes, Poroshenko is fairly unpopular: highest unfavorability ratings in the polls, consistently trailed Tymoshenko in polling (not a single poll I have seen places him ahead).

Analysts are saying escalation of conflict may be desired by both sides. (Putin's popularity has dropped to its lowest level in 5 years, last time it was so low was 2013.)

This situation is still evolving and may change rapidly.
 

Shemp

 
>>What happens if Ukraine blows that bridge up?

Angers people in Russia, forcing Putin to retaliate. Situation could then spiral out of control and that is risky to powers that be. So probably won't take such a drastic step.

As Blake2 suggested, watch the exchange rate. If it doesn't move much, this is all play acting.
 

Oaks

Robin
Shemp said:
As Blake2 suggested, watch the exchange rate. If it doesn't move much, this is all play acting.

"Ukrainian Assets Tumble as Crimea Tensions Eclipse IMF Progress"
Bloomberg Article:

-Ukrainian government bonds fell the most since their issuance
-The hryvnia was on track for its biggest drop in more than a month against the dollar. hryvnia slipped as much as 1.6 percent against the dollar


""The IMF, eventually, will maintain its financial aid to Ukraine, and for Russia, as long as there is no extension on the conflict on land, I don’t think there will be meaningful consequences.""
===================

So far, nothing major, but keep an eye out.
 

Philosopher

Woodpecker
It appears that Poroshenko is implementing martial law so he can delay the election. https://twitter.com/search?q=martial+law+in+ukraine&ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^search

Think the whole incident today was Putin giving Poroshenko enough rope to hang himself as a prolonged confrontation with Russia will give moderates the chance to oust him, similar to what happened with Saakashvilli in Georgia. Perhaps a dark horse candidate like Segey Tihipko or someone from the Opposition Bloc as Yuriy Boyko has 14% to Timoshenko's 16. http://sg-sofia.com.ua/elektoralni-orientazii-ukr-gromadyan
 

Oaks

Robin
As of now, martial law is partial and temporary.
Only 10 provinces are affected (Kyiv, Lviv not included).

The elections are not affected and martial law ends in 30 days.


This is what the situation is +at the moment+. According to the news, martial law can be extended as a result of new "aggressive actions".
 

Rocha

Ostrich
Gold Member
Porky's chances at winning are none to zero. He is the ridicule and laughingstock of Ukrainian society and independent media. Nobody likes him.

With or without martial law his days are numbered.
 
I watched some episodes of Zelensky's TV show Servant of the People, in which he plays a high school history teacher that becomes President of Ukraine after a video of him ranting about politics went viral on Youtube. It's actually pretty good.

I hope he becomes president.

 

Louis IX

Pelican
I don't deny Zelenskiy s talent for.comedy but he is 100% alien and during.the "crisis" said that he would support Ukrainian army Vs Russia.
He said he would.not talk to Lugansk or Donetsk leaders as they are russian puppets.
But he said he would try to end the conflict with Russia peacefully .

If he wasn't alien I would believe that a miracle can happen but I feel that he was just téléguidéd by alien leaders as a "last chance" for Ukraine .

After all; they have entered the democratic western type of circus ; so why not be ridiculous to the maximum . Smart move from the Ukrainian alien mafia
 

Oaks

Robin
In 2 recent polls Zelensky leads with 28 percent vs Poroshenko (18 percent) and Timoshenko in 3rd (15 percent).

He has a lot of young supporters, who usually have lower turnout %

...but it looks like a good deal to bet on Zelensky still with such a large lead.

(4.5 betting Odds for Zelensky :)
 
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