NomadofEU said:I was having a conversation with students last night and we got on the subject of Ukrainian politics and all of the students defaulted to a helpless state wherein they just make fun of the system and the group agrees that votes don't count and no one can do anything to change the shitty system. Then they asked me if I was going to vote in the upcoming election and the inevitable "who are you going to vote for?" question came up.
I asked them if they had been following American politics and most had only heard the bad headlines about Trump. I told them that Trump was the only choice because he's the first candidate in decades who dictates his own policies due to the fact he is a self-made billionaire and has no "campaign contributors" to answer to.
The class had a unanimous distaste for Trump because of his talk about scaling back American military presence overseas. Ukrainians believe that if the US presence in Europe diminishes they will be helpless against a Russian invasion. I told them that if Putin wanted Ukraine he would have already taken it. They started to listen when I told them about how NATO shouldn't even exist because it was founded as an 'Anti-Soviet Coalition' and ever since the Soviet Union collapsed, instead of disbanding or scaling back, NATO has continued expansion towards Russia's borders. All the while the US installs military bases as it creeps further east coupled with western war mongering politicians talking about installing ballistic missile platforms in Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltics.
The conversation wasn't a bad one but it didn't really go anywhere as the general feeling was of unanimous helplessness and a complete dependence on the US for protection. But it got me thinking:
If a Trump presidency means reduced US military presence around the world and indeed in EE, what effect would that have on the current situation in Ukraine? If American and/or UN presence in Ukraine evaporates I think the opposite of what Ukrainians believe will happen (The DPR will push westward and takeover with Russia backing them!) would occur. Without any American influence in Ukraine the civil war would lose its purpose. When Putin sees that Ukraine is no longer a military objective of the west he won't have to focus on the region as the fire in his backyard will have been extinguished. Yes the Ukrainian politicians are still corrupt puppets of western bankers, however the chances for reunification would be strengthened because Ukraine would finally see stability return as American and Russian military presence will diminish.
Trump stated that he could make deals with Putin and Putin said that he liked Trump. It's crazy to think how quickly things can change when two men of greatness come together with only the best interest of their people at heart.
Cr33pin said:So whats the latest with this?
Should I hunker down at the US embassy here in Kiev
Cr33pin said:So whats the latest with this?
Should I hunker down at the US embassy here in Kiev
Roosh said:Feel free to post random thoughts, images, or links here that you feel don't deserve their own thread.
Philosopher said:I have a thought that the whole incident with the seizure of Ukrainian ships had the following purposes:
1) Payback for the Russian fishing vessel that Ukraine detained this past summer
2) Give Poroshenko enough rope to hang himself by making it look like he is using the martial law to delay the election
3) Force the issue of recognizing the new borders after the return of Crimea
It seems that yesterday he was constantly in contact with Angela Merkel who was not happy about this martial law and finally only a twenty days geographically limited martial law was adopted yesterday in the Ukrainian parliament.
We'll see how he manages to extend this martial law. The first step is always the most important (in pick up or politics...).
[email protected] said:Oh shit. One scoop wasn't enough. I was planning on staying here past the 21st but i might have to flee to Poland. Im supposed to meet up with a girl in Zaporizhzhia but it's too close to the invasion. Not worth it.
Lika said:Good news for Ukraine who might be forced by the US to make peace in Donbass soon:
http://thesaker.is/ukraine-will-be-coerced-into-making-peace-in-donbass/
Lika said:Good news for Ukraine who might be forced by the US to make peace in Donbass soon:
http://thesaker.is/ukraine-will-be-coerced-into-making-peace-in-donbass/
H1N1 said:Lika said:Good news for Ukraine who might be forced by the US to make peace in Donbass soon:
http://thesaker.is/ukraine-will-be-coerced-into-making-peace-in-donbass/
This is a very strange article. I don't see this happening at all, and the reasoning, to the extent there is any at all, strikes me as pretty tenuous. America is still taking a firm line against Russia. Chief negotiator for the US in the conflict, Volker, made a statement two days ago that makes it very clear that the conflict will end when Minsk is enacted and Russian troops are withdrawn from Ukraine's territory. Russia still denies that it has active duty troops in Ukraine's territory. We are a long way from resolution to the conflict, and it is unlikely to be solved by the Americans in my view.
American foreign policy is fairly non-committal, except for the occasions where it is actively interventionist (and usually disastrous). The American's were heavily involved in 2014, calling quite a lot of shots, installing Poroshenko et al. But in recent years their engagement has been very low indeed. Ukraine is not a foreign policy priority for the US, whatever lip service it pays it, and Ukraine is not going to be coerced into permanently ceding territory.
Aquarius said:The likely result is some type of frozen conflict situation and restoration of civilian economic relations that will occur sometime next decade. While I don't see the US warming up to Russia anytime soon, I can see Europe doing so out of purely economic interests. And neither Europe nor Russia is truly willing to be a geopolitical and economic lapdog of the US and China, respectively. The recent decision to give Europeans, but not Americans, 16 day e-visa is a sign of things to come next decade.
Granted, political relations between Ukraine and Russia won't be solved for decades. Georgia (the country) doesn't even have diplomatic relations with Russia while trade has resumed. Likewise with Taiwan and China. I see Ukraine morphing into essentially Georgia but with 10 times the population, both in terms of strength of US ties and the extent of the restoration of relation with Russia.
reciproke said:Lika said:Good news for Ukraine who might be forced by the US to make peace in Donbass soon:
http://thesaker.is/ukraine-will-be-coerced-into-making-peace-in-donbass/
Ah, "The Saker", the ominously duginist, neobolshevist geopolitics expert, dedicatedly anti-european, anti-white, living everywhere else than in the motherland where he can actually enjoy a stable society, but writing enthusiastically about the benefits of his mafia-run Eurasian Empire