Ukraine conflict lounge

[chicane]

There is a reason that many Americans will never give up their guns. "There will be a gun behind every blade of grass". But I suppose Ukrainians are used to being conquered by invading forces after all these centuries of it happening over and over.

 

[Louis IX]

I was having a conversation with students last night and we got on the subject of Ukrainian politics and all of the students defaulted to a helpless state wherein they just make fun of the system and the group agrees that votes don't count and no one can do anything to change the shitty system. Then they asked me if I was going to vote in the upcoming election and the inevitable "who are you going to vote for?" question came up.

I asked them if they had been following American politics and most had only heard the bad headlines about Trump. I told them that Trump was the only choice because he's the first candidate in decades who dictates his own policies due to the fact he is a self-made billionaire and has no "campaign contributors" to answer to.

The class had a unanimous distaste for Trump because of his talk about scaling back American military presence overseas. Ukrainians believe that if the US presence in Europe diminishes they will be helpless against a Russian invasion. I told them that if Putin wanted Ukraine he would have already taken it. They started to listen when I told them about how NATO shouldn't even exist because it was founded as an 'Anti-Soviet Coalition' and ever since the Soviet Union collapsed, instead of disbanding or scaling back, NATO has continued expansion towards Russia's borders. All the while the US installs military bases as it creeps further east coupled with western war mongering politicians talking about installing ballistic missile platforms in Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltics.

The conversation wasn't a bad one but it didn't really go anywhere as the general feeling was of unanimous helplessness and a complete dependence on the US for protection. But it got me thinking:

If a Trump presidency means reduced US military presence around the world and indeed in EE, what effect would that have on the current situation in Ukraine? If American and/or UN presence in Ukraine evaporates I think the opposite of what Ukrainians believe will happen (The DPR will push westward and takeover with Russia backing them!) would occur. Without any American influence in Ukraine the civil war would lose its purpose. When Putin sees that Ukraine is no longer a military objective of the west he won't have to focus on the region as the fire in his backyard will have been extinguished. Yes the Ukrainian politicians are still corrupt puppets of western bankers, however the chances for reunification would be strengthened because Ukraine would finally see stability return as American and Russian military presence will diminish.

Trump stated that he could make deals with Putin and Putin said that he liked Trump. It's crazy to think how quickly things can change when two men of greatness come together with only the best interest of their people at heart.

I have had this conversation while working and living in Ukraine millions of times. The key concept in this is Russian hatred - Ukrainians were slaughtered and their culture was confiscated during soviet time. They see Russians responsible for this , if you start to tell them and make them understand that Soviet union was a Jewish creation to weaken and divide slavic/christian people of this area , some start to understand. If you find someone who understands , then start by naming all the people involved in this conflict on the Ukrainian side , remind them that Poroshenko doesn't use his real name , and so on and so on. Sometimes it will work.
Still I am not worried because there has been many attemps to derussify Ukraine and it has always failed.

 

[Louis IX]

So whats the latest with this?

Should I hunker down at the US embassy here in Kiev

Don't worry too much. I feel that this big operation of the "defend ukraine against the invader Russia" has failed. While most people are brainwashed and believe in the story , noone but a part of determined ukrainians believe in a real action against Russia. Ukraine is not an interesting place for political journalists and does not have a huge appeal for the average westerner.

 

[Louis IX]

So whats the latest with this?

Should I hunker down at the US embassy here in Kiev

Don't worry too much. I feel that this big operation of the "defend ukraine against the invader Russia" has failed. While most people are brainwashed and believe in the story , noone but a part of determined ukrainians believe in a real action against Russia. Ukraine is not an interesting place for political journalists and does not have a huge appeal for the average westerner.

 

[Louis IX]

The more I think about this conflict , the more I start to believe that the real goal was to destroy Poland's heterogeneity.
Poland has managed to get "cheap workers" which were accepted by the public as non-muslims. But I see more and more hate towards them from Poland as they are taking all the lowest-paid jobs. There is 1 or 1.5 million of them according to various sources. This is a brand new type of migration which consolidates polish economy but will be used on long term as a dividing factors ( Remember Lvov was built by poles and all the massacres of Poles made by Bandera). Donald Tusk was particularly active in this , as he is always active in the "defend Holocaust" topic.
We can see a clear agenda here. There is also the card of orthodoxy vs catholicism to be played by the elites in the future.
All those goals were possible by uniting people around the hate of Russians.

 

[Philosopher]

I have a thought that the whole incident with the seizure of Ukrainian ships had the following purposes:

1) Payback for the Russian fishing vessel that Ukraine detained this past summer
2) Give Poroshenko enough rope to hang himself by making it look like he is using the martial law to delay the election
3) Force the issue of recognizing the new borders after the return of Crimea

 

[Trumps Intern]

Feel free to post random thoughts, images, or links here that you feel don't deserve their own thread.

This is a pivotal moment for Trump. It sounds like this could be World War III, not just a proxy war. It would be the most badass thing if the USA and Russia became allies in this conflict against Europe.

 

[Lika]

I have a thought that the whole incident with the seizure of Ukrainian ships had the following purposes:

1) Payback for the Russian fishing vessel that Ukraine detained this past summer
2) Give Poroshenko enough rope to hang himself by making it look like he is using the martial law to delay the election
3) Force the issue of recognizing the new borders after the return of Crimea

Elections are planned for March 2019. Martial law was declared in Ukraine yesterday for some regions of Ukraine (during martial law, there can be no elections).

Poroshenko whose approval ratings are very low, wanted an initial 60 days martial law but then reduced his request to 30 days so that "nobody would believe he was trying to prevent the (organization of) the
presidential elections".

It seems that yesterday he was constantly in contact with Angela Merkel who was not happy about this martial law and finally only a twenty days geographically limited martial law was adopted yesterday in the Ukrainian parliament.

We'll see how he manages to extend this martial law. The first step is always the most important (in pick up or politics...).

 

[Philosopher]

It seems that yesterday he was constantly in contact with Angela Merkel who was not happy about this martial law and finally only a twenty days geographically limited martial law was adopted yesterday in the Ukrainian parliament.

We'll see how he manages to extend this martial law. The first step is always the most important (in pick up or politics...).

Martial law in France lasted more than a year after the Paris attacks but did not help Ollande.

 

[budoslavic]

 

[BURNΞR]

Oh shit. One scoop wasn't enough. I was planning on staying here past the 21st but i might have to flee to Poland. Im supposed to meet up with a girl in Zaporizhzhia but it's too close to the invasion. Not worth it.

 

[Rocha]

Oh shit. One scoop wasn't enough. I was planning on staying here past the 21st but i might have to flee to Poland. Im supposed to meet up with a girl in Zaporizhzhia but it's too close to the invasion. Not worth it.

Not sure what is more funny. If you are really believing that there will be a Russian Invasion, or that you will go to Zaporizhia just to meet up with a girl.

 

[Lika]

Zaporizhia is cool. I go there often. There is no snow there today and the girls are nice and friendly. You should go.

There will be no invasion.

 

[Lika]

Good news for Ukraine who might be forced by the US to make peace in Donbass soon:

http://thesaker.is/ukraine-will-be-coerced-into-making-peace-in-donbass/

 

[H1N1]

Good news for Ukraine who might be forced by the US to make peace in Donbass soon:

http://thesaker.is/ukraine-will-be-coerced-into-making-peace-in-donbass/

This is a very strange article. I don't see this happening at all, and the reasoning, to the extent there is any at all, strikes me as pretty tenuous. America is still taking a firm line against Russia. Chief negotiator for the US in the conflict, Volker, made a statement two days ago that makes it very clear that the conflict will end when Minsk is enacted and Russian troops are withdrawn from Ukraine's territory. Russia still denies that it has active duty troops in Ukraine's territory. We are a long way from resolution to the conflict, and it is unlikely to be solved by the Americans in my view.

American foreign policy is fairly non-committal, except for the occasions where it is actively interventionist (and usually disastrous). The American's were heavily involved in 2014, calling quite a lot of shots, installing Poroshenko et al. But in recent years their engagement has been very low indeed. Ukraine is not a foreign policy priority for the US, whatever lip service it pays it, and Ukraine is not going to be coerced into permanently ceding territory.

 

[deleted_anonymous]

Good news for Ukraine who might be forced by the US to make peace in Donbass soon:

http://thesaker.is/ukraine-will-be-coerced-into-making-peace-in-donbass/

Ah, "The Saker", the ominously duginist, neobolshevist geopolitics expert, dedicatedly anti-european, anti-white, living everywhere else than in the motherland where he can actually enjoy a stable society, but writing enthusiastically about the benefits of his mafia-run Eurasian Empire

 

[Aquarius]

Good news for Ukraine who might be forced by the US to make peace in Donbass soon:

http://thesaker.is/ukraine-will-be-coerced-into-making-peace-in-donbass/

This is a very strange article. I don't see this happening at all, and the reasoning, to the extent there is any at all, strikes me as pretty tenuous. America is still taking a firm line against Russia. Chief negotiator for the US in the conflict, Volker, made a statement two days ago that makes it very clear that the conflict will end when Minsk is enacted and Russian troops are withdrawn from Ukraine's territory. Russia still denies that it has active duty troops in Ukraine's territory. We are a long way from resolution to the conflict, and it is unlikely to be solved by the Americans in my view.

American foreign policy is fairly non-committal, except for the occasions where it is actively interventionist (and usually disastrous). The American's were heavily involved in 2014, calling quite a lot of shots, installing Poroshenko et al. But in recent years their engagement has been very low indeed. Ukraine is not a foreign policy priority for the US, whatever lip service it pays it, and Ukraine is not going to be coerced into permanently ceding territory.

The likely result is some type of frozen conflict situation and restoration of civilian economic relations that will occur sometime next decade. While I don't see the US warming up to Russia anytime soon, I can see Europe doing so out of purely economic interests. And neither Europe nor Russia is truly willing to be a geopolitical and economic lapdog of the US and China, respectively. The recent decision to give Europeans, but not Americans, 16 day e-visa is a sign of things to come next decade.

Granted, political relations between Ukraine and Russia won't be solved for decades. Georgia (the country) doesn't even have diplomatic relations with Russia while trade has resumed. Likewise with Taiwan and China. I see Ukraine morphing into essentially Georgia but with 10 times the population, both in terms of strength of US ties and the extent of the restoration of relation with Russia.

 

[Oaks]

The likely result is some type of frozen conflict situation and restoration of civilian economic relations that will occur sometime next decade. While I don't see the US warming up to Russia anytime soon, I can see Europe doing so out of purely economic interests. And neither Europe nor Russia is truly willing to be a geopolitical and economic lapdog of the US and China, respectively. The recent decision to give Europeans, but not Americans, 16 day e-visa is a sign of things to come next decade.

Granted, political relations between Ukraine and Russia won't be solved for decades. Georgia (the country) doesn't even have diplomatic relations with Russia while trade has resumed. Likewise with Taiwan and China. I see Ukraine morphing into essentially Georgia but with 10 times the population, both in terms of strength of US ties and the extent of the restoration of relation with Russia.

EU admission is likely no earlier than 2035 as per the words of the Ukrainian foreign minister. NATO cooperation is likely to continue at the level it is now.

Once Nord Stream 2 is completed, Ukraine will be less of a key transit point for gas.
Frozen conflict along the lines of Georgia and Moldova seems likely.

 

[Mekorig]

Good news for Ukraine who might be forced by the US to make peace in Donbass soon:

http://thesaker.is/ukraine-will-be-coerced-into-making-peace-in-donbass/

Ah, "The Saker", the ominously duginist, neobolshevist geopolitics expert, dedicatedly anti-european, anti-white, living everywhere else than in the motherland where he can actually enjoy a stable society, but writing enthusiastically about the benefits of his mafia-run Eurasian Empire

And that is why i payed no attention to the article as soon i saw the web adress. The guys was hilarious to read during the active conflict. It almost sounded like a soviet official during the 70´s.

 

[TigerMandingo]

I think Putin made a huge mistake with Crimea. I know there are geostrategic considerations but I consider both Ukraine and Belarus to be huge drags on Russia. They are loser countries. I don’t care how historically close they are, the future lies with places like China, Japan, InDia etc. Now that Ukraine is defacto ruled by Jews it’s a lost cause.