Roosh
Cardinal
Greece?
Ukraine conflict lounge
- Thread starter Roosh
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Pelican
It´s probably related to Turkey. Wrong thread.
La Águila Negra
Pelican
These are Ukrainian sources. I'd take them with a grain of salt. The battle will be between the Russia-supported LDNR and the NATO-supported Ukrainian Army. There is a lot of propaganda out there already trying to paint this conflict from the angle of the 'Russian aggressor bullying its weaker neighbours around'
It's just Turk propaganda anyway. The Turks could be in Athens in a week if they wanted to, that is unfortunately the cold hard reality
There is this conspiracy theory doing the rounds in Turkey of a combined US-Russo-Chinese pact to keep the Mighty Turk down. This type of propaganda feeds into that.
Never mind that one of the main US bases for operations in the Middle East is located in Incirlik.
That 'journalist' Dimitri Gordon has very un-Slavic face bytheway.
TB2 Bayraktars. From as far as I know Ukraine has only 6 of them right now (could be wrong).
Reposting these links here.
Is the Ukraine on the brink of war (again)? | The Vineyard of the Saker
A bird's eye view of the vineyard
thesaker.is
They May Try Again.
Everybody writes about it and the signs are there--Ukraine is trying to attack Donbass, again. As Patrick Armstrong notes today: The team th...
smoothiex12.blogspot.com
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The Ukraine is literally run by clowns, starting with their comedian turned president:
Their foreign minister spent most of the last decade working for an arts NGO, probably funded by oligarchs:
These guys are not in the same league as Putin or Lavrov, I wonder if they really know what they're doing. It kind of reminds me of Armenia's NATO-compatible disaster of a president who has destroyed his country.
Their NATO handlers are playing hardball with Russia, but if they don't come to their senses this is going to blow up in their faces. I think they probably will back down now that Russia has shown it means business with their massive deployment.
Their foreign minister spent most of the last decade working for an arts NGO, probably funded by oligarchs:
These guys are not in the same league as Putin or Lavrov, I wonder if they really know what they're doing. It kind of reminds me of Armenia's NATO-compatible disaster of a president who has destroyed his country.
Their NATO handlers are playing hardball with Russia, but if they don't come to their senses this is going to blow up in their faces. I think they probably will back down now that Russia has shown it means business with their massive deployment.
La Águila Negra
Pelican
It's a nonsense theory, regurgitated by Kiev aligned misinformation channels like the one above and designed to give fake credit to the fake 'Russian aggressor' narrative
There is only on side playing the drums of war, and that's definitely not Rudsia
get2choppaaa
Pelican
So they didn't seize crimea from Ukraine?
I would think the water theory makes Russia seem more justified since everyone needs water - after all most wars in human history are about territory and resources, and ideology is the convenient cover.
get2choppaaa
Pelican
This whole war from a military standpoint is about access to a warm water port and resources.
All the other stuff about Ethnicities and the flavor of justification are there just to conflate that fact.
Ukraine was always something that Russia has coveted.
La Águila Negra
Pelican
No, again, it doesn't. It's aimed at linking an interventionist motive to current Russian 'troop build ups' and 'divisive rhetoric'
As it currently stands water shortages are not a big issue in Crimea. Other things are, as foreign and domestic companies are currently unable to operate and/or sell their products in the Crimea. Same goes for banks. If the Crimeans need to have their banking issues fixed they need to travel to Russia proper across the Strait of Kerch.
If interested in this I suggest you follow auslander, who is a Crimean local and very active in thesaker comment section and other pro-Russia English forums. I believe he has also written several books on the matter, using the pseudonym R. H. Auslander.
La Águila Negra
Pelican
They let the Crimean people speak for themselves
2014 Crimean status referendum - Wikipedia
en.m.wikipedia.org
La Águila Negra
Pelican
I am going to say this in the nicest way possible, but the average American is unable to even slightly grasp any reasoning influenced by non-Mercantile motives
If Russia would have only cared about resources to they could have just taken Sevastopol, as that's the city that houses the naval base
If Russia would have only cared about resources to they could have ditched Transnistria decades ago, as it's a dirtpoor backwater
If Russia would have only cared about resources they would have ditched Chechnya decades ago, as it's a bottomless money pit and economic backwater
Etc. Etc.
get2choppaaa
Pelican
I won't feel personally attacked...so please enlighten me and don't read this as me being snarky as I'd love commentary from a non-American about other country's attempts at empire.
My family on my mother's side left Ukraine to escape Bolshevik Jews and their effect on Ukraine.
I understand this conflict as an embodiment of the attempt for Russia to reunite itself with it's image of the 3rd Rome and it's belief that it is the way forward as an Empire.
Subjugation of Ukraine had always been crucial for the Russian empire identity. Belarus, Russia and Ukraine all tie their ethnic origin stories to Kiev to some degree and it's a source of conflict with in the culture to this day.
That not withstanding beyond the matters of ethos, the empirical reality is that the warm water port is a geostrategic goal... And it's convenient that the crimean russians and tartars view themselves as sympathetic to Russia.
Or is there something else I am missing?
get2choppaaa
Pelican
I'm no Putin hater. He acts in what he believes is his/the oligarchs ((())) of Russia and the Russian images' best interest...that's why he and Trump got along.They let the Crimean people speak for themselves
2014 Crimean status referendum - Wikipedia
But don't feed me the business that this was not about a geopolitical goal, and that they would not have invaded if it weren't for the access to warm water ports in addition to whatever goals Putin has in reuniting the Image of a Russian Motherland.
I don't hate Russia. We should be allies...but I am not just gonna go with the x ethnic group doesn't want to participate in their government so it's cool for war mentality.
Change my mind though, as I'm open... And am also aware of the Victoria Nuland effect in Ukraine
ScannerLIV
Woodpecker
I'm quite muddy here-but what of Crimean's possible revolt against Kiev as Donbass has done so? Maybe Kiev government would have opened another front on Crimea to put down the revolt?
Anyway, Crimea is historically part of Russian empire. Crimea was given to Ukraine during Soviet Union times, the act which was seen as a historical mistake.
Crimea has received almost no investment from Ukraine since 1991 (I might be wrong, but that is unlikely considering Ukraine has been broken the entirely lifespan of its independence).
Go to Crimea as Ukrainian to investigate how they feel about being "invaded" by Russia and the locals would laugh at you and feel pity for you.
If Kosovo can be declared independent from Serbia (this set the precedent), then Crimea can too.
Lastly-no shit. It was about geopolitics! Russia isn't going to give away Crimea to NATO.
If Ukraine had voted to join EU, by legitimate government!-then it is unlikely Russia would have taken Crimea.
There was a coup, sponsored by the west, the support without which the event wouldn't have transpired.
And so here we are
Anyway, Crimea is historically part of Russian empire. Crimea was given to Ukraine during Soviet Union times, the act which was seen as a historical mistake.
Crimea has received almost no investment from Ukraine since 1991 (I might be wrong, but that is unlikely considering Ukraine has been broken the entirely lifespan of its independence).
Go to Crimea as Ukrainian to investigate how they feel about being "invaded" by Russia and the locals would laugh at you and feel pity for you.
If Kosovo can be declared independent from Serbia (this set the precedent), then Crimea can too.
Lastly-no shit. It was about geopolitics! Russia isn't going to give away Crimea to NATO.
If Ukraine had voted to join EU, by legitimate government!-then it is unlikely Russia would have taken Crimea.
There was a coup, sponsored by the west, the support without which the event wouldn't have transpired.
And so here we are
La Águila Negra
Pelican
Right now it's not entirely clear what Putin's modus operandi and main objectives are.
In my opinion, what matters most in the Ukraine*, for Russia is
*I don't consider Crimea Ukrainian. Crimea has never been Ukrainian in history and culture, and was handed to the Ukrainian SSR in 1954 by Khrutshev for a plethora of non-reasons - none of them related to the will or ethnic composition of the peninsula's population
In 1991 there was a Crimean plebiscite on independence/ more autonomy - 94 percent was in favor. Western lapdog Yeltsin threw the plebiscite in the trashcan and decided that Crimea would be part of the new independent state of Ukraine.
Fastforward to 2014. Democratic elections in Ukraine get overturned by a violent Western backed color revolution. Heavy anti-Russian sentiment, which had been whipped in the Western part of the country for decades results in dozens of deaths in Odessa and elsewhere. Anti Russian laws and kill all moskals attitudes get common.
One day green little men suddenly appear on the island, speaking a familiar language. They organise a plebiscite on the future of the peninsula. I guess it wasn't a difficult choice. Crimea is home
1. Block any further NATO encroachment towards Russia borders.
2. Maintain access to the Black Sea and by extension the Mediterranean
3. Protect the Russian speaking population in Crimea/Donbass (yesterday the Duma stated that they will protect Russian citizens in the Donbass if necessary - they have been handing out hundreds of thousands of Russian passports to the local populace)
4. Create a pattern of deterrence against Uncle Sam and his minions
5. If necessary, create the needed conditions for the new state of Novorossiya to thrive
As for the return of the birthplace of the Russian people and its culture to the Russian Federation, at this point that will likely not happen. The general attitude in much of Ukraine has become incredibly anti-Russia in the last 7 years, this is even the case in previously majority Russian speaking cities like Dniepropetrovsk.
Russifying these people (like the Ukraine Ukrainiasized them) will be a decades long process. On top of that the Ukraine is in a horrible state economically, and pulling this rotting carcas out of the mud (the most advanced and prosperous SSR in Soviet times) will take tens of billions USD per year - Russia simply doesn't have that kind of money available for a people that hate Russia with a vigor.
For now they can only work on minor areas like the Donbass and Crimea. However, this might change in the future. It wouldn't surprise when in 15-20 years time Russia will enter a union with (post Lukashenko) Belarus and the Eastern part of the by then defunct state of Ukraine.
As an addition: Crimean Tatars are generally not pro-Russian (Stalin deported them to Siberia) , but pro-Ukrainian (not to be confused with the actual Tatars in Tatarstan who are generally proud Russian citizens)
In my opinion, what matters most in the Ukraine*, for Russia is
*I don't consider Crimea Ukrainian. Crimea has never been Ukrainian in history and culture, and was handed to the Ukrainian SSR in 1954 by Khrutshev for a plethora of non-reasons - none of them related to the will or ethnic composition of the peninsula's population
In 1991 there was a Crimean plebiscite on independence/ more autonomy - 94 percent was in favor. Western lapdog Yeltsin threw the plebiscite in the trashcan and decided that Crimea would be part of the new independent state of Ukraine.
Fastforward to 2014. Democratic elections in Ukraine get overturned by a violent Western backed color revolution. Heavy anti-Russian sentiment, which had been whipped in the Western part of the country for decades results in dozens of deaths in Odessa and elsewhere. Anti Russian laws and kill all moskals attitudes get common.
One day green little men suddenly appear on the island, speaking a familiar language. They organise a plebiscite on the future of the peninsula. I guess it wasn't a difficult choice. Crimea is home
1. Block any further NATO encroachment towards Russia borders.
2. Maintain access to the Black Sea and by extension the Mediterranean
3. Protect the Russian speaking population in Crimea/Donbass (yesterday the Duma stated that they will protect Russian citizens in the Donbass if necessary - they have been handing out hundreds of thousands of Russian passports to the local populace)
4. Create a pattern of deterrence against Uncle Sam and his minions
5. If necessary, create the needed conditions for the new state of Novorossiya to thrive
As for the return of the birthplace of the Russian people and its culture to the Russian Federation, at this point that will likely not happen. The general attitude in much of Ukraine has become incredibly anti-Russia in the last 7 years, this is even the case in previously majority Russian speaking cities like Dniepropetrovsk.
Russifying these people (like the Ukraine Ukrainiasized them) will be a decades long process. On top of that the Ukraine is in a horrible state economically, and pulling this rotting carcas out of the mud (the most advanced and prosperous SSR in Soviet times) will take tens of billions USD per year - Russia simply doesn't have that kind of money available for a people that hate Russia with a vigor.
For now they can only work on minor areas like the Donbass and Crimea. However, this might change in the future. It wouldn't surprise when in 15-20 years time Russia will enter a union with (post Lukashenko) Belarus and the Eastern part of the by then defunct state of Ukraine.
As an addition: Crimean Tatars are generally not pro-Russian (Stalin deported them to Siberia) , but pro-Ukrainian (not to be confused with the actual Tatars in Tatarstan who are generally proud Russian citizens)
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get2choppaaa
Pelican
I tend to agree with a majority of what you said here. I think it is worth noting that Ukraine has always seen itself as not Russian...hence a separate language.
Crimeans may view themselves as Russian but again, I don't for a second buy the "we are here to protect the fellow Russian semi-diaspora" if It didn't serve major economic and military benefit for Russia.
I have seen russia abroad during my time in the Marines to know that they are just as much a geopolitical operator as Uncle Sam.
For Russia it is hard to tell how successful they will be in coming decades. Alliances with China/Iran may not serve them well if they can't get off the petrodollar.
La Águila Negra
Pelican
Russia does act as the guarantor of both ethnic Russians and Russian citizens abroad, be it in the Baltics, Ukraine, Moldova or Kazakhstan
In the state Duma declared the right of Russia to protect its citizens in the Donbass
SIMFEROPOL, 2 APR-RIA Novosti. Deputy of the State Duma of the Russian Federation, head of the Russia — Donbass integration CommitteeAndrey Kozenko said that in the event of an increase in military operations in theIn the Donbas Russia will have the full right to protect its citizens living there.
Previously, the press service of the Ukrainian defense Ministry said that official Washington promised to provide supportTo Kiev in the event of an escalation of the situation in the Donbass. In a statement, the Ukrainian defense Ministry claims that the us Secretary of defense stressed that "in the event of an escalation of Russian aggression, the United States will not abandonUkraine in private."
"In The Pentagon habitually forgets that it has no right to interfere in the Affairs of other States. To the conflict in the DonbasWashington has nothing to do with it. And if in the event of increased military operations, especially with the participation of the us military, in the Donbass, this will be open aggression on the part of the United States, then Russia will have every right to protect citizens living in the Donbass and its compatriots, to whom it is obliged to provide comprehensive support in accordance with the recently approved amendments to the Constitution,"
According to him, in this case, the balance of power "is unlikely to be on the side of the ukro-Americans."
"In fact, Ukraine and the United States discussed a common combat readiness for joint military operations against the residents of Donbass, not very skillfully hiding all this with the mythical "aggression" of Russia. After such statements, obviously, it is necessary to prepare for provocations from Ukraine. In addition, it is clear who the customer is, all the cards that hide the us concern about strengthening Russia's positions are revealed, " the Deputy said.
https://ria.ru/20210402/donbass-1603935647.html
In the state Duma declared the right of Russia to protect its citizens in the Donbass
SIMFEROPOL, 2 APR-RIA Novosti. Deputy of the State Duma of the Russian Federation, head of the Russia — Donbass integration CommitteeAndrey Kozenko said that in the event of an increase in military operations in theIn the Donbas Russia will have the full right to protect its citizens living there.
Previously, the press service of the Ukrainian defense Ministry said that official Washington promised to provide supportTo Kiev in the event of an escalation of the situation in the Donbass. In a statement, the Ukrainian defense Ministry claims that the us Secretary of defense stressed that "in the event of an escalation of Russian aggression, the United States will not abandonUkraine in private."
"In The Pentagon habitually forgets that it has no right to interfere in the Affairs of other States. To the conflict in the DonbasWashington has nothing to do with it. And if in the event of increased military operations, especially with the participation of the us military, in the Donbass, this will be open aggression on the part of the United States, then Russia will have every right to protect citizens living in the Donbass and its compatriots, to whom it is obliged to provide comprehensive support in accordance with the recently approved amendments to the Constitution,"
According to him, in this case, the balance of power "is unlikely to be on the side of the ukro-Americans."
"In fact, Ukraine and the United States discussed a common combat readiness for joint military operations against the residents of Donbass, not very skillfully hiding all this with the mythical "aggression" of Russia. After such statements, obviously, it is necessary to prepare for provocations from Ukraine. In addition, it is clear who the customer is, all the cards that hide the us concern about strengthening Russia's positions are revealed, " the Deputy said.
https://ria.ru/20210402/donbass-1603935647.html