Ukraine conflict lounge

Roosh

Cardinal
“It is expected that Ukraine to start an offensive next Monday on March 15 against Russia
Journalist Dmitri Gordon says next Monday will be a “difficult”, “fateful” and “historic day” for Ukraine.

Footage from days ago showed another large amount of military equipment by Ukrainian Army, sent to the front line of Donbas, occupied by Russia.

The Ukrainian Army conducted counter-sabotage exercises on the border with Russian occupied Crimea ... with a hint of sending their own saboteurs to the adjacent side.”

Greece is being heavily armed by US.
Greece?
 
Russia is not messing around.

These are Ukrainian sources. I'd take them with a grain of salt. The battle will be between the Russia-supported LDNR and the NATO-supported Ukrainian Army. There is a lot of propaganda out there already trying to paint this conflict from the angle of the 'Russian aggressor bullying its weaker neighbours around'


It´s probably related to Turkey. Wrong thread.
It's just Turk propaganda anyway. The Turks could be in Athens in a week if they wanted to, that is unfortunately the cold hard reality

There is this conspiracy theory doing the rounds in Turkey of a combined US-Russo-Chinese pact to keep the Mighty Turk down. This type of propaganda feeds into that.

Never mind that one of the main US bases for operations in the Middle East is located in Incirlik.

That 'journalist' Dimitri Gordon has very un-Slavic face bytheway.


TB2 Bayraktars. From as far as I know Ukraine has only 6 of them right now (could be wrong).

Reposting these links here.



 
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Foolsgo1d

Peacock
Ukraine moving on the cities would provoke Russia into action. The Russians themselves have stated they have put units on high alert.

Propaganda or not, the Ukies have a lot of new toys and want to use them. Biden is in power and he has some nice dealings over there.
 

budoslavic

Owl
Gold Member
Video description
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defence has released a lengthy statement claiming on Monday there were ten instances of ceasefire violations by Russian forces, including weapons prohibited by the Minsk agreements. The Government department said in the Donetsk sector, in the suburbs of Verkhnotoretske and Vodiane in the Azov Sea region, "the enemy opened fire towards the positions of Ukrainian soldiers with 82 mm and 120 mm mortars prohibited by the Minsk agreements, as well as grenade launchers of various systems and heavy machine guns".


Video description
Trains loaded with large amounts of Russian military hardware, including tanks and other heavy armored vehicles, as well as heavy artillery, appear to be streaming toward the country's borders with Ukraine. There are unconfirmed reports that the scale of these movements is so significant that it has, to the dismay of Russian farmers, disrupted shipments of tractors and other agricultural equipment ahead of the spring harvest season. U.S. officials are now worried that a new major round of fighting between Russia and Ukraine may be imminent as a ceasefire is at risk of expiring tomorrow.
 

911

Peacock
Gold Member
The Ukraine is literally run by clowns, starting with their comedian turned president:
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Their foreign minister spent most of the last decade working for an arts NGO, probably funded by oligarchs:

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These guys are not in the same league as Putin or Lavrov, I wonder if they really know what they're doing. It kind of reminds me of Armenia's NATO-compatible disaster of a president who has destroyed his country.

Their NATO handlers are playing hardball with Russia, but if they don't come to their senses this is going to blow up in their faces. I think they probably will back down now that Russia has shown it means business with their massive deployment.
 

Arado

Pelican
Gold Member
It's a nonsense theory, regurgitated by Kiev aligned misinformation channels like the one above and designed to give fake credit to the fake 'Russian aggressor' narrative

There is only on side playing the drums of war, and that's definitely not Rudsia
I would think the water theory makes Russia seem more justified since everyone needs water - after all most wars in human history are about territory and resources, and ideology is the convenient cover.


The Ukrainian Army is much stronger relative to the NAF than it was in 2014, so absent Russian intervention, the success of Ukraine’s “Operation Storm” is assured. There may be pro-Russian/Donbass cheerleaders who will claim otherwise, but the facts are that in 2014, the Ukrainian Army was dysfunctional, and the conflict was primarily fought by high-asabiya volunteers from both sides, with Russia lending its support to the rebels at critical moments. Today, after six years of spending 3.5% (SIPRI) or 5% (official numbers) of its GDP on the military – whatever the precise numbers, drastically higher than the 1% it was spending before 2014 – the Ukrainian military is much more capable. Meanwhile, most of the high-asabiya NAF volunteers have left and the bulk of it now consists of former Donbass miners collecting paychecks. This will now be more of a “classic” state vs. state struggle, and with Ukraine’s population and GDP being 8-10x bigger than that of the LDNR, the outcome of such a contest isn’t hard to guess. One can compare this with Karabakh War II, with the LDNR in the place of Armenia and Ukraine in the place of Azerbaijan (down to having received Turkish drones).

Putin can’t allow this to happen, so it will have to intervene, and more openly than in 2014. There will be a ramp up in American-European sanctions against Russia and what is very likely to be a last minute kibosh on NS2.

I would array the probabilities something like this:

  • 10% Russia allows Ukrainian Operation Storm to succeed
  • 50% Russia moves troops in forcing Ukrainians to retreat, but otherwise retains status quo
  • 25% chance it recognizes LDNR/officially incorporates it
  • 10% chance it expands LDNR to encompass the entire Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts and recognizes/incorporates it
  • 5% chance it expands elsewhere (e.g. Kharkov)
 

get2choppaaa

Pelican
I would think the water theory makes Russia seem more justified since everyone needs water - after all most wars in human history are about territory and resources, and ideology is the convenient cover.

This whole war from a military standpoint is about access to a warm water port and resources.

All the other stuff about Ethnicities and the flavor of justification are there just to conflate that fact.

Ukraine was always something that Russia has coveted.
 
I would think the water theory makes Russia seem more justified since everyone needs water - after all most wars in human history are about territory and resources, and ideology is the convenient cover.

No, again, it doesn't. It's aimed at linking an interventionist motive to current Russian 'troop build ups' and 'divisive rhetoric'

As it currently stands water shortages are not a big issue in Crimea. Other things are, as foreign and domestic companies are currently unable to operate and/or sell their products in the Crimea. Same goes for banks. If the Crimeans need to have their banking issues fixed they need to travel to Russia proper across the Strait of Kerch.

If interested in this I suggest you follow auslander, who is a Crimean local and very active in thesaker comment section and other pro-Russia English forums. I believe he has also written several books on the matter, using the pseudonym R. H. Auslander.
 
This whole war from a military standpoint is about access to a warm water port and resources.

All the other stuff about Ethnicities and the flavor of justification are there just to conflate that fact.

Ukraine was always something that Russia has coveted.
I am going to say this in the nicest way possible, but the average American is unable to even slightly grasp any reasoning influenced by non-Mercantile motives

If Russia would have only cared about resources to they could have just taken Sevastopol, as that's the city that houses the naval base

If Russia would have only cared about resources to they could have ditched Transnistria decades ago, as it's a dirtpoor backwater

If Russia would have only cared about resources they would have ditched Chechnya decades ago, as it's a bottomless money pit and economic backwater

Etc. Etc.
 

get2choppaaa

Pelican
I am going to say this in the nicest way possible, but the average American is unable to even slightly grasp any reasoning influenced by non-Mercantile motives

If Russia would have only cared about resources to they could have just taken Sevastopol, as that's the city that houses the naval base

If Russia would have only cared about resources to they could have ditched Transnistria decades ago, as it's a dirtpoor backwater

If Russia would have only cared about resources they would have ditched Chechnya decades ago, as it's a bottomless money pit and economic backwater

Etc. Etc.
I won't feel personally attacked...so please enlighten me and don't read this as me being snarky as I'd love commentary from a non-American about other country's attempts at empire.

My family on my mother's side left Ukraine to escape Bolshevik Jews and their effect on Ukraine.

I understand this conflict as an embodiment of the attempt for Russia to reunite itself with it's image of the 3rd Rome and it's belief that it is the way forward as an Empire.


Subjugation of Ukraine had always been crucial for the Russian empire identity. Belarus, Russia and Ukraine all tie their ethnic origin stories to Kiev to some degree and it's a source of conflict with in the culture to this day.

That not withstanding beyond the matters of ethos, the empirical reality is that the warm water port is a geostrategic goal... And it's convenient that the crimean russians and tartars view themselves as sympathetic to Russia.

Or is there something else I am missing?
 

get2choppaaa

Pelican
They let the Crimean people speak for themselves

I'm no Putin hater. He acts in what he believes is his/the oligarchs ((())) of Russia and the Russian images' best interest...that's why he and Trump got along.

But don't feed me the business that this was not about a geopolitical goal, and that they would not have invaded if it weren't for the access to warm water ports in addition to whatever goals Putin has in reuniting the Image of a Russian Motherland.

I don't hate Russia. We should be allies...but I am not just gonna go with the x ethnic group doesn't want to participate in their government so it's cool for war mentality.

Change my mind though, as I'm open... And am also aware of the Victoria Nuland effect in Ukraine
 

ScannerLIV

Woodpecker
I'm quite muddy here-but what of Crimean's possible revolt against Kiev as Donbass has done so? Maybe Kiev government would have opened another front on Crimea to put down the revolt?

Anyway, Crimea is historically part of Russian empire. Crimea was given to Ukraine during Soviet Union times, the act which was seen as a historical mistake.

Crimea has received almost no investment from Ukraine since 1991 (I might be wrong, but that is unlikely considering Ukraine has been broken the entirely lifespan of its independence).

Go to Crimea as Ukrainian to investigate how they feel about being "invaded" by Russia and the locals would laugh at you and feel pity for you.

If Kosovo can be declared independent from Serbia (this set the precedent), then Crimea can too.

Lastly-no shit. It was about geopolitics! Russia isn't going to give away Crimea to NATO.

If Ukraine had voted to join EU, by legitimate government!-then it is unlikely Russia would have taken Crimea.

There was a coup, sponsored by the west, the support without which the event wouldn't have transpired.

And so here we are
 
Right now it's not entirely clear what Putin's modus operandi and main objectives are.

In my opinion, what matters most in the Ukraine*, for Russia is

*I don't consider Crimea Ukrainian. Crimea has never been Ukrainian in history and culture, and was handed to the Ukrainian SSR in 1954 by Khrutshev for a plethora of non-reasons - none of them related to the will or ethnic composition of the peninsula's population

In 1991 there was a Crimean plebiscite on independence/ more autonomy - 94 percent was in favor. Western lapdog Yeltsin threw the plebiscite in the trashcan and decided that Crimea would be part of the new independent state of Ukraine.

Fastforward to 2014. Democratic elections in Ukraine get overturned by a violent Western backed color revolution. Heavy anti-Russian sentiment, which had been whipped in the Western part of the country for decades results in dozens of deaths in Odessa and elsewhere. Anti Russian laws and kill all moskals attitudes get common.

One day green little men suddenly appear on the island, speaking a familiar language. They organise a plebiscite on the future of the peninsula. I guess it wasn't a difficult choice. Crimea is home

1. Block any further NATO encroachment towards Russia borders.

2. Maintain access to the Black Sea and by extension the Mediterranean

3. Protect the Russian speaking population in Crimea/Donbass (yesterday the Duma stated that they will protect Russian citizens in the Donbass if necessary - they have been handing out hundreds of thousands of Russian passports to the local populace)

4. Create a pattern of deterrence against Uncle Sam and his minions

5. If necessary, create the needed conditions for the new state of Novorossiya to thrive

As for the return of the birthplace of the Russian people and its culture to the Russian Federation, at this point that will likely not happen. The general attitude in much of Ukraine has become incredibly anti-Russia in the last 7 years, this is even the case in previously majority Russian speaking cities like Dniepropetrovsk.

Russifying these people (like the Ukraine Ukrainiasized them) will be a decades long process. On top of that the Ukraine is in a horrible state economically, and pulling this rotting carcas out of the mud (the most advanced and prosperous SSR in Soviet times) will take tens of billions USD per year - Russia simply doesn't have that kind of money available for a people that hate Russia with a vigor.

For now they can only work on minor areas like the Donbass and Crimea. However, this might change in the future. It wouldn't surprise when in 15-20 years time Russia will enter a union with (post Lukashenko) Belarus and the Eastern part of the by then defunct state of Ukraine.

As an addition: Crimean Tatars are generally not pro-Russian (Stalin deported them to Siberia) , but pro-Ukrainian (not to be confused with the actual Tatars in Tatarstan who are generally proud Russian citizens)
 
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get2choppaaa

Pelican
Right now it's not entirely clear what Putin's modus operandi and main objectives are.

In my opinion, what matters most in the Ukraine*, for Russia is

*I don't consider Crimea Ukrainian so I will leave that out of the equation. Crimea has never been Ukrainian in history and culture, and was handed to the Ukrainian SSR in 1954 by Khrutshev for a plethora of non-reasons - none of them related to the will or ethnic composition of the peninsula's population

In 1991 there was a Crimean plebiscite on independence/ more autonomy - 94 percent was in favor. Western lapdog Yeltsin threw the plebiscite in the trashcan and decided that Crimea would be part of the new independent state of Ukraine.

Fastforward to 2014. Democratic elections in Ukraine get overturned by a violent Western backed color revolution. Heavy anti-Russian sentiment, which had been whipped in the Western part of the country for decades results in dozens of deaths in Odessa and elsewhere. Anti Russian laws and kill all moskals attitudes get common.

One day green little men suddenly appear on the island, speaking a familiar language. They organise a plebiscite on the future of the peninsula. I guess it wasn't a difficult choice. Crimea is home

1. Block any further NATO encroachment towards Russia borders.

2. Maintain access to the Black Sea and by extension the Mediterranean

3. Protect the Russian speaking population in Crimea/Donbass (yesterday the Duma stated that they will protect Russian citizens in the Donbass if necessary - they have been handing out hundreds of thousands of Russian passports to the local populace)

4. Create a pattern of deterrence against Uncle Sam and his minions

5. If necessary, create the needed conditions for the new state of Novorossiya to thrive

As for the return of the birthplace of the Russian people and its culture to the Russian Federation, at this point that will likely not happen. The general attitude in much of Ukraine has become incredibly anti-Russia in the last 7 years, this is even the case in previously majority Russian speaking cities like Dniepropetrovsk.

Russifying these people (like the Ukraine Ukrainiasized them) will be a decades long process. On top of that the Ukraine is in a horrible state economically, and pulling this rotting carcas out of the mud will take tens of billions USD per year - Russia simply doesn't have that kind of money available for a people that hate Russia with a vigor.

For now they can only work on minor areas like the Donbass and Crimea. However, this might change in the future. It wouldn't surprise when in 15-20 years time Russia will enter a union with (post Lukashenko) Belarus and the Eastern part of the by then defunct state of Ukraine.

As an addition: Crimean Tatars are generally not pro-Russian, but pro-Ukrainian (not to be confused with the actual Tatars in Tatarstan who are generally proud Russian citizens)
I tend to agree with a majority of what you said here. I think it is worth noting that Ukraine has always seen itself as not Russian...hence a separate language.

Crimeans may view themselves as Russian but again, I don't for a second buy the "we are here to protect the fellow Russian semi-diaspora" if It didn't serve major economic and military benefit for Russia.

I have seen russia abroad during my time in the Marines to know that they are just as much a geopolitical operator as Uncle Sam.

For Russia it is hard to tell how successful they will be in coming decades. Alliances with China/Iran may not serve them well if they can't get off the petrodollar.
 
Russia does act as the guarantor of both ethnic Russians and Russian citizens abroad, be it in the Baltics, Ukraine, Moldova or Kazakhstan

In the state Duma declared the right of Russia to protect its citizens in the Donbass

SIMFEROPOL, 2 APR-RIA Novosti. Deputy of the State Duma of the Russian Federation, head of the Russia — Donbass integration CommitteeAndrey Kozenko said that in the event of an increase in military operations in theIn the Donbas Russia will have the full right to protect its citizens living there.
Previously, the press service of the Ukrainian defense Ministry said that official Washington promised to provide supportTo Kiev in the event of an escalation of the situation in the Donbass. In a statement, the Ukrainian defense Ministry claims that the us Secretary of defense stressed that "in the event of an escalation of Russian aggression, the United States will not abandonUkraine in private."

"In The Pentagon habitually forgets that it has no right to interfere in the Affairs of other States. To the conflict in the DonbasWashington has nothing to do with it. And if in the event of increased military operations, especially with the participation of the us military, in the Donbass, this will be open aggression on the part of the United States, then Russia will have every right to protect citizens living in the Donbass and its compatriots, to whom it is obliged to provide comprehensive support in accordance with the recently approved amendments to the Constitution,"

According to him, in this case, the balance of power "is unlikely to be on the side of the ukro-Americans."


"In fact, Ukraine and the United States discussed a common combat readiness for joint military operations against the residents of Donbass, not very skillfully hiding all this with the mythical "aggression" of Russia. After such statements, obviously, it is necessary to prepare for provocations from Ukraine. In addition, it is clear who the customer is, all the cards that hide the us concern about strengthening Russia's positions are revealed, " the Deputy said.

https://ria.ru/20210402/donbass-1603935647.html
 
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