Ukraine conflict lounge

Don Quixote

Pelican
Orthodox Inquirer
It sounds like a Russian invasion is imminent and Russia is pressing the envelope so to speak. Almost as if Putin is turning the tables on the U.S. and wants to pressure us into destroying the Western economy. If he can successfully manage that without war there might be breakup of the EU.

"Kremlin’s aide Ushakov: Biden says several times that there should be no Nuclear war." As if nuclear war as an option is a given. That is extremely unnerving and very bizarre that Biden should state that multiple times.
 

Pointy Elbows

Woodpecker
Orthodox
Talking about the West's double standards. Just facts:
After listening twice to Putin's answer to the second question, I remembered the famous "cornered rat" story of Putin's youth.

Agree with him or not, it appears Putin believes he is a cornered rat. Per Putin, there are 5 NATO/US violations of the 1990s verbal agreement that NATO would not go "one inch east." US intelligence support of violence in north Caucasus is well known to him. As FSB Director, sounds like he ran a few double-agents against US intelligence and "sussed out" our culpability in stirring those pots. Per Putin, Russian is exasperated that the West remains doubled-down against a country of 146M. Decades of sanctions (and the unspoken Wall Street piracy of '90s Russia) have likely also left him dismayed. Paraphrasing: "why did the US NEVER seek to make us an ally, but only sought damage for us?!"

Now, as for Putin's "cornered rat" story... Years ago, Putin told the story of encountering a cornered rat in the stairwell of his St. Petersburg apartment building. As a foolish boy, he chased the rat into a corner. The rat couldn't go left, right, up, or down the stairs to get away. So the rat attacked him. Putin learned then: leave your adversaries a way out.

In Putin's mind, he is the cornered rat now.

Now, per Don Quixote's post, Biden-ites have vague, implied threat: words about a nuclear war. Yes, this all seems quite bizarre to me.

The 10k withdrawal seems like a "head fake" to me. At best, it is a withdrawal to test Western response. Lord help us, with this crowd running the show.

Dangerous times. I hope cool heads prevail on both sides.
 
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Don Quixote

Pelican
Orthodox Inquirer
After listening twice to Putin's answer to the second question, I remembered the famous "cornered rat" story of Putin's youth.

Agree with him or not, it appears Putin believes he is a cornered rat. Per Putin, there are 5 NATO/US violations of the 1990s verbal agreement that NATO would not go "one inch east." US intelligence support of violence in north Caucasus is well known to him. As FSB Director, sounds like he ran a few double-agents against US intelligence and "sussed out" our culpability in stirring those pots. Per Putin, Russian is exasperated that the West remains doubled-down against a country of 146M. Decades of sanctions (and the unspoken Wall Street piracy of '90s Russia) have likely also left him dismayed. Paraphrasing: "why did the US NEVER seek to make us an ally, but only sought damage for us?!"

Now, as for Putin's "cornered rat" story... Years ago, Putin told the story of encountering a cornered rat in the stairwell of his St. Petersburg apartment building. As a foolish boy, he chased the rat into a corner. The rat couldn't go left, right, up, or down the stairs to get away. So the rat attacked him. Putin learned then: leave your adversaries a way out.

In Putin's mind, he is the cornered rat now.

Now, per Don Quixote's post, Biden-ites have vague, implied threat: words about a nuclear war. Yes, this all seems quite bizarre to me.

The 10k withdrawal seems like a "head fake" to me. Lord help us, with this crowd running the show.

Dangerous times. I hope cool heads prevail on both sides.
I agree. This reveals to me the complete desperation on the part of the West. They literally have no more cards left. If they let Russia take Ukraine without sanctions, NATO pretty much loses all credibility as an alliance. Much of Europe will start to reconsider whether it is in their best interests to remain partners and might become closer to Moscow. That is pretty much not an option.

If the West sanctions Russia financially but not militarily, Russia will automatically fire back and shut down relations with the U.S. China may follow suit to add pressure. Europe is not prepared to handle this scenario, and America will be severely damaged too. This will again lead towards the break up of the European Union as Eastern Europe builds stronger partnerships with the East.

The one chip that the U.S. and NATO have remaining is military action – in this case nuclear weapons. The way Biden phrases it, it's clear he is saying "we can use it if we want," but in a way so as to make Russia seem like it is the aggressor. In this scenario, something like a limited nuclear exchange occurs after a trip-wire or false flag event in a Ukrainian conflict. It's sad to say but many people would actually like this scenario. Some have been clamoring for it for a long time and others perceive that their careers and power is over if the status quo holds. The cornered rat analogy is useful here for those politicians as well, as they might see "going all in" as their only option left. At the very least it seems like we are on track for some kind of economic disaster.
 

Pointy Elbows

Woodpecker
Orthodox
I agree. This reveals to me the complete desperation on the part of the West. They literally have no more cards left. If they let Russia take Ukraine without sanctions, NATO pretty much loses all credibility as an alliance. Much of Europe will start to reconsider whether it is in their best interests to remain partners and might become closer to Moscow. That is pretty much not an option.

If the West sanctions Russia financially but not militarily, Russia will automatically fire back and shut down relations with the U.S. China may follow suit to add pressure. Europe is not prepared to handle this scenario, and America will be severely damaged too. This will again lead towards the break up of the European Union

The one chip that the U.S. and NATO have remaining is military action – in this case nuclear weapons. The way Biden phrases it, it's clear he is saying "we can use it if we want," but in a way so as to make Russia seem like it is the aggressor. In this scenario, something like a limited nuclear exchange occurs after a trip-wire or false flag event in a Ukrainian conflict. It's sad to say but many people would actually like this scenario. Some have been clamoring for it for a long time and others perceive that their careers and power is over if the status quo holds. The cornered rat analogy is useful here for those politicians as well, as they might see "going all in" as their only option left. At the very least it seems like we are on track for some kind of economic disaster.
Biden, that Republican Senator on the Armed Services Committee, and all their ilk need to calm down with the Nuke talk.

Keep in mind, it isn't a penis-size competition between Russia and the US alone. Plenty of other countries have a lot at stake, and none of us need this headache (except for a special chosen few that love this idea).

Ukraine's very special President is a wild card in this to me. Many Ukes consider him a joke, but, well, enough liked him to get him into office. Some think he's a Russia stooge (Ukrainian ultra-ethnic types), while others see him as an effete Western wannabe.

(Paging El Draque and other hands-on/better informed brothers here).

We have: Two mega-powers, lots of friction points, and a few wing-nuts. Seems like a great place for a "trip-wire or false flag event."

Somebody needs to pull both sides back from the edge. The only country that can pull back Russia is China, and they may be looking for a two-front conflict with the US, so don't bet on it. Who's going to pull back the US from the edge? Even if they want to, with this strange administration, how do they do it?
 

Don Quixote

Pelican
Orthodox Inquirer
Biden, that Republican Senator on the Armed Services Committee, and all their ilk need to calm down with the Nuke talk.

Keep in mind, it isn't a penis-size competition between Russia and the US alone. Plenty of other countries have a lot at stake, and none of us need this headache (except for a special chosen few that love this idea).

Ukraine's very special President is a wild card in this to me. Many Ukes consider him a joke, but, well, enough liked him to get him into office. Some think he's a Russia stooge (Ukrainian ultra-ethnic types), while others see him as an effete Western wannabe.

(Paging El Draque and other hands-on/better informed brothers here).

We have: Two mega-powers, lots of friction points, and a few wing-nuts. Seems like a great place for a "trip-wire or false flag event."

Somebody needs to pull both sides back from the edge. The only country that can pull back Russia is China, and they may be looking for a two-front conflict with the US, so don't bet on it. Who's going to pull back the US from the edge? Even if they want to, with this strange administration, how do they do it?
My ongoing theory has been that the U.S. needs to destroy itself from within. China, Russia, and Davos all want U.S. hegemony gone. It is necessary for their new world order for a new "synthesis" to be made that mashes the Eastern and Western dialectics together to create a new identity. Of course these are false dialectics though. I think, looking through a biblical lens, the coming of the Antichrist can only make sense in a new world order without U.S. as the dominant leader. A major global shift would have to take place. How does that happen without a war? Almost all times in history where major reorientations occurred, a war was closely accompanied.

We know the Davos group and those corporate globalists have no real allegiance to the U.S. and bet on both sides, so what is to stop them from tipping the U.S. over the edge into complete chaos? Nothing in my opinion. As long as they have a demented puppet for a ruler, the United States is capable of committing any range of folly at the moment. I think this is all part of the plan. The U.S. is at a point where its delusions of grandeur will bring a severe and catastrophic downfall upon itself.
 

Going strong

Crow
Trad Catholic
Gold Member
After listening twice to Putin's answer to the second question, I remembered the famous "cornered rat" story of Putin's youth.

Agree with him or not, it appears Putin believes he is a cornered rat. Per Putin, there are 5 NATO/US violations of the 1990s verbal agreement that NATO would not go "one inch east." US intelligence support of violence in north Caucasus is well known to him. As FSB Director, sounds like he ran a few double-agents against US intelligence and "sussed out" our culpability in stirring those pots. Per Putin, Russian is exasperated that the West remains doubled-down against a country of 146M. Decades of sanctions (and the unspoken Wall Street piracy of '90s Russia) have likely also left him dismayed. Paraphrasing: "why did the US NEVER seek to make us an ally, but only sought damage for us?!"

Now, as for Putin's "cornered rat" story... Years ago, Putin told the story of encountering a cornered rat in the stairwell of his St. Petersburg apartment building. As a foolish boy, he chased the rat into a corner. The rat couldn't go left, right, up, or down the stairs to get away. So the rat attacked him. Putin learned then: leave your adversaries a way out.

In Putin's mind, he is the cornered rat now.

Now, per Don Quixote's post, Biden-ites have vague, implied threat: words about a nuclear war. Yes, this all seems quite bizarre to me.

The 10k withdrawal seems like a "head fake" to me. At best, it is a withdrawal to test Western response. Lord help us, with this crowd running the show.

Dangerous times. I hope cool heads prevail on both sides.
The 10k withdrawal, it depends if they were elite soldiers, or not-so-good regiments. Also it can be a mere rotation, for rest and family time.

If I were Putin I would send those 10k at the border of Latvia. One hour' drive from Riga and its 50/50 Russian population... That would blow MSM's head! Like :

"Is Putin planning to attack both Ukraine, and the Baltic lands? Or one but not the other, but which one, or one after the other but in which order??"

I would also send another 10k soldiers in Sochi, "will Putin also invade Georgia?". Then I would station naval ships a few miles from Odessa, "will Putin land in Odessa, and process northwest to Kyiv, or, will Putin go South to invade Moldova and its Pridniestria, or maybe both?".

I mean, Putin has so many options to mess with NATO's heads, he can invade Ukraine Georgia Latvia Moldova or any combination of. Or not.

Or he can invade Ukraine Georgia Latvia and Moldova, meeting little to none opposition, while the same day China gets Taiwan back, while also Maduro attacks Colombia, while the same day the Wagner Group takes Mali and Centrafrique. The Russian peacekeepers might also chose the same day to expel Azeris from Nagorny K, while the Serbs move on Kosovo. Multiple worldwide coordinated offensive.

That would be quite a day for Biden and MSM. Good day also if you have bought gold or btcs, or just plain food.
 

Pointy Elbows

Woodpecker
Orthodox
My ongoing theory has been that the U.S. needs to destroy itself from within. China, Russia, and Davos all want U.S. hegemony gone. It is necessary for their new world order for a new "synthesis" to be made that mashes the Eastern and Western dialectics together to create a new identity. Of course these are false dialectics though. I think, looking through a biblical lens, the coming of the Antichrist can only make sense in a new world order without U.S. as the dominant leader. A major global shift would have to take place. How does that happen without a war? Almost all times in history where major reorientations occurred, a war was closely accompanied.

We know the Davos group and those corporate globalists have no real allegiance to the U.S. and bet on both sides, so what is to stop them from tipping the U.S. over the edge into complete chaos? Nothing in my opinion. As long as they have a demented puppet for a ruler, the United States is capable of committing any range of folly at the moment. I think this is all part of the plan. The U.S. is at a point where its delusions of grandeur will bring a severe and catastrophic downfall upon itself.
Interesting points. As a fairly recent convert to Orthodox Christianity, I generally avoid eschatological discussions. I don't have proper doctrinal education on these very touchy matters.

I do recall, from early Protestant education, that many believe there is no biblical basis that the US would be a major end-times power. The Revelations, Daniel, etc., were not clearly supportive of this conclusion. I am confused with such divinations. I don't understand them enough to say, "yay, or nay."

Still, and from a simply secular position, it is a persuasive argument - the US is playing a game. The stakes are higher than the US (and the West) are calculating. The risk factors are poorly controlled. Russia is telegraphing - in bold letters - that they are out of options. Beware.
 

Pointy Elbows

Woodpecker
Orthodox
The 10k withdrawal, it depends if they were elite soldiers, or not-so-good regiments. Also it can be a mere rotation, for rest and family time.

If I were Putin I would send those 10k at the border of Latvia. One hour' drive from Riga and its 50/50 Russian population... That would blow MSM's head! Like :

"Is Putin planning to attack both Ukraine, and the Baltic lands? Or one but not the other, but which one, or one after the other but in which order??"

I would also send another 10k soldiers in Sochi, "will Putin also invade Georgia?". Then I would station naval ships a few miles from Odessa, "will Putin land in Odessa, and process northwest to Kyiv, or, will Putin go South to invade Moldova and its Pridniestria, or maybe both?".

I mean, Putin has so many options to mess with NATO's heads, he can invade Ukraine Georgia Latvia Moldova or any combination of. Or not.

Or he can invade Ukraine Georgia Latvia and Moldova, meeting little to none opposition, while the same day China gets Taiwan back, while also Maduro attacks Colombia, while the same day the Wagner Group takes Mali and Centrafrique. The Russian peacekeepers might also chose the same day to expel Azeris from Nagorny K, while the Serbs move on Kosovo. Multiple worldwide coordinated offensive.

That would be quite a day for Biden and MSM. Good day also if you have bought gold or btcs, or just plain food.
Username checks out. Again.

Man, what a game changer that would all be. Could be highly effective, but (and to Putin's credit), I would be shocked if he opens a multi-front offensive, if only to hold the position of the "just, reluctant warrior."
 

Going strong

Crow
Trad Catholic
Gold Member
Username checks out. Again.

Man, what a game changer that would all be. Could be highly effective, but (and to Putin's credit), I would be shocked if he opens a multi-front offensive, if only to hold the position of the "just, reluctant warrior."
Putin just has to open one little front. Then, accidentally, coincidentally, behind his back, China choses the same day to launch its offensive to get Taipei back, while coincidentally the Serbs roll their tanks into Kosovo the same evening, while, unbeknownst to Putin, the private company called Wagner Group takes Centrafrique, while opportunist Maduro enters Colombia, all coincidences... Putin would bear no further responsibility, the Chinese, Serbs, and private mercenaries or exotic generals, would just take advantage of the situation, "without asking Putin's permission".
 

Don Quixote

Pelican
Orthodox Inquirer
Interesting points. As a fairly recent convert to Orthodox Christianity, I generally avoid eschatological discussions. I don't have proper doctrinal education on these very touchy matters.

I do recall, from early Protestant education, that many believe there is no biblical basis that the US would be a major end-times power. The Revelations, Daniel, etc., were not clearly supportive of this conclusion. I am confused with such divinations. I don't understand them enough to say, "yay, or nay."

Still, and from a simply secular position, it is a persuasive argument - the US is playing a game. The stakes are higher than the US (and the West) are calculating. The risk factors are poorly controlled. Russia is telegraphing - in bold letters - that they are out of options. Beware.
Just from a political perspective, in order for the Antichrist to round up Christians for the slaughter, I believe a whole new paradigm has to be established. A massive reorientation and restructuring of the global political system has to occur for that to be possible, and the United States as it currently is understood can't exist. The Constitution would have to be shredded completely. Obviously in order for that reorientation to occur something massive must have to happen to the U.S. as a whole such that people actually rejoice at him being appointed sole ruler. A huge conflict or at least massive global economic collapse has to occur. But that's just reverse engineering what I understand from Revelation, I may be wrong as I only have lay knowledge.
 

Don Quixote

Pelican
Orthodox Inquirer
As we all know, Biden is unfit to be called a "Commander in Chief". He isn't exactly calling the shots.

Exactly. That's why it felt like they were talking past one another. If this is really how the conversation went. How does it make sense that Biden says "we won't put weapons in Ukraine," and Putin responds with "I am going to take Ukraine and you will not give me financial sanctions." Seems like Putin is not talking to Biden, he is addressing those behind Biden. He knows that anything Biden says is probably not legitimate or credible. And Biden, by talking about nukes, seems to just be repeating what he's told by his handlers. At least that's the sense I get. It all seems weird and disjointed.
 

Pointy Elbows

Woodpecker
Orthodox
Putin just has to open one little front. Then, accidentally, coincidentally, behind his back, China choses the same day to launch its offensive to get Taipei back, while coincidentally the Serbs roll their tanks into Kosovo the same evening, while, unbeknownst to Putin, the private company called Wagner Group takes Centrafrique, while opportunist Maduro enters Colombia, all coincidences... Putin would bear no further responsibility, the Chinese, Serbs, and private mercenaries or exotic generals, would just take advantage of the situation, "without asking Putin's permission".
Brother, I get your point. But if it happens, then it happens with nuke warfare involved. The lightweights and confused geriatrics running US policy would just hit the SHTF button. It is simply above their maturity/comprehensive level. Then it is "game on."

The current Nuclear Countdown clock is at 100 seconds. They haven't moved the time since 2020 - not that I put much stock in it. US and Russia have talks scheduled for January 10, 2022. Surely, calm heads can prevail until that time at least.

 

budoslavic

Eagle
Orthodox
Gold Member

What Putin really told Biden​

So Russian President Vladimir Putin, all by himself, and US President Joe Biden, surrounded by aides, finally had their secret video link conference for two hours and two minutes – with translators placed in different rooms.

That was their first serious exchange since they met in person in Geneva last June – the first Russia-US summit since 2018.

For global public opinion, led to believe a “war” in Ukraine was all but imminent, what’s left is essentially a torrent of spin.

So let’s start with a simple exercise focusing on the key issue of the video link – Ukraine -, contrasting the White House and Kremlin versions of what happened.

The White House: Biden made it “clear” to Putin that the US and allies will respond with “decisive economic and other measures” to the military escalation in Ukraine. At the same time, Biden called on Putin to de-escalate around Ukraine and “return to diplomacy”.

Kremlin: Putin offered Biden to nullify all restrictions on the functioning of diplomatic missions. He remarked that cooperation between Russia and the US is still in an “unsatisfactory” state.

He urged the US not to shift “responsibility on the shoulders of Russia” for the escalation of the situation around Ukraine.

The White House: the US will expand military aid to Ukraine if Russia takes steps against it.

Kremlin: Putin told Biden that Russia is interested in obtaining legally fixed guarantees excluding NATO’s eastward expansion and the deployment of offensive strike systems in Russia’s neighboring countries.

The White House: Biden did not give Putin any commitments that Ukraine will remain outside NATO.

Minsk or bust

Now for what really matters: the red line.

What Putin diplomatically told Team Biden, sitting at their table, is that Russia’s red line – no Ukraine on NATO – is unmovable. The same applies to Ukraine turned into a hub of the Pentagon’s Empire of Bases, and hosting NATO weaponry.

Washington may deny it ad infinitum, but Ukraine is part of Russia’s sphere of influence. If nothing is done to force Kiev to abide by the Minsk Agreement, Russia will “neutralize” the threat in its own terms.

The root cause of all this drama, absent from any NATOstan narrative, is straightforward: Kiev simply refuses to respect the February 2015 Minsk Agreement.

According to the deal, Kiev should grant autonomy to Donbass via a constitutional amendment, referred to as “special status”; issue a general amnesty; and start a dialogue with the people’s republics of Donetsk and Lugansk.

Over the years, Kiev fulfilled less than zero of these commitments – while the NATOstan media machine kept spinning that Russia was violating Minsk. Russia is not even mentioned in the agreement.

Moscow always respected the Minsk Agreement – which establishes Donbass as an integral, autonomous part of Ukraine. Russia has made it very clear, over and over again, it has no interest whatsoever in promoting regime change in Kiev.

Before the video link, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov remarked, “Putin will listen to Biden’s proposals on Ukraine ‘with great interest.'” Even the White House states Team Biden did not propose for Kiev to obey the Minsk Agreement. So regardless of what Team Biden may have said, Putin, pragmatically, will adopt a “wait and see” approach, and then act accordingly.

In the run up to the video link, maximum hype revolved around Washington seeking to stop Nord Stream 2 if Russia “invades” Ukraine.

What never transpires out of the “invasion” narrative, repeated ad nauseam across NATOstan, is that hawks overseeing an immensely polarized US, corroded from the inside, desperately need a war in what military analyst Andrei Martyanov calls “country 404”, a black hole contiguous to Europe.

The crux of the matter is that imperial European vassals must not have access to Russian energy: only American LNG.

And that’s what led the most extreme Russophobes in Washington to start threatening sanctions on Putin’s inner circle, Russian energy producers, and even disconnecting Russia from SWIFT. All that was supposed to prevent Russia from “invading” Country 404.

Secretary of State Tony Blinken – present at the video link – said a few days ago in Riga that “if Russia invades Ukraine”, NATO will respond “with a range of high impact economic measures.” As for NATO, it’s far from aggressive: just a “defensive” organization.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, in early December, at the OCSE Ministerial Council meeting in Stockholm, was already warning that “strategic stability” in Europe was “rapidly eroding”.

Lavrov said, “NATO refuses to consider our proposals on de-escalation of tensions and prevention of dangerous incidents…On the contrary, the alliance’s military infrastructure is moving closer to Russia’s borders… The nightmarish scenario of military confrontation is returning.”

So no wonder the heart of the matter, for Moscow, is NATO encroachment. The “invasion” narrative is crass fake news sold as fact. Even the CIA’s William Burns admitted that US intel had no intel to “conclude” that Russia will dutifully answer the War Inc. prayers and finally “invade” Ukraine.

Still that did not prevent a German sensationalist rag from presenting the full contours of the Russian blitzkrieg, when the actual story is the US and NATO attempting to push “country 404” to commit suicide by attacking the people’s republics of Donetsk and Lugansk.

That legally binding guarantee

It’s idle to expect the video link to produce practical results. As NATOstan remains mired in concentric crises, the current level of high tension between NATO and Russia is a gift from heaven in terms of maintaining the convenient narrative of an external Slavic evil. It’s also an extra bonus for the military-industrial-intelligence-media-think tank complex.

The tension will continue to simmer without becoming incandescent only if NATO does not expand in any shape or form inside Ukraine. Diplomats in Brussels routinely comment that Kiev will never be accepted as a NATO member. But if things can get worse, they will: Kiev will become one of those NATO special partners, a desperately poor, hungry for territory, rogue actor.

Putin demanding from the US – which runs NATO – a written, legally binding guarantee that the alliance will not advance further eastward towards Russian borders is the game-changer here.

Team Biden cannot possibly deliver: they would be eaten alive by the War Inc. establishment. Putin studied his history and knows that Daddy Bush’s “promise” to Gorbachev on NATO expansion was just a lie. He knows those who run NATO will never commit themselves in writing.

So that allows Putin a full range of options to defend Russian national security. “Invasion” is a joke; Ukraine, rotting from the inside, consumed by fear, loathing, and poverty, will remain in limbo, while Donetsk and Lugansk will be progressively interconnected with the Russian Federation.

There will be no NATO war on Russia – as Martyanov himself has extensively demonstrated NATO wouldn’t last five minutes against Russian hypersonic weapons. And Moscow will be focused on what really matters, geoeconomically and geopolitically: solidifying the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU) and the Greater Eurasia Partnership.
 

Going strong

Crow
Trad Catholic
Gold Member
Agreed with the above, but, Ukraine was never going to implement the Minsk agreement. And NATO would not respect a "legally-binding" piece of paper, for long, either. How much longer can Putin pretend he didn't and doesn't know all this?

Putin is in a situation where, again and again, the West calls his bluff, and encroaches, and Putin dares not act. It's been going on since one year after the successful Crimea operation, Putin's masterpiece.

So at some point Putin has to flex muscles again, or Russia's foreign and internal enemies will reach the conclusion that he's never going to strike, whatever the provocations. Matter of fact I could bet the Pentagon has (erroneously?) reached this conclusion, and they sleep well.
 

911

Peacock
Gold Member
If true, you've to admit this is funny. хуй is the Russian word.


f199b6a989e46a1a.jpeg

That cyrilic dick looks photoshopped, the configuration is not optimal from a logistical point, so it would be highly unlikely that the Russian army would do such a stunt.
 

Pointy Elbows

Woodpecker
Orthodox

What Putin really told Biden​


The reference to Ukraine as "Country 404" is illuminating. Ukraine really is the doormat that is being used and manipulated. Putin knows this, and I don't think he relishes to thought of open, large-scale confrontation with Ukraine. Sure, he can win a conflict. But he can't submit the entirety of it. He can't "win the peace." The US doesn't need an expensive presence in UA, so far from home. But, well, let's face it - the war machine would certainly make tons of money off of such an "expensive presence."

It is all so cynical. US leaders acting like they are freedom-fighters in dirt poor Ukraine, keeping the evil nationalistic Russia down. Because, you know, Russia is an imminent and expanding force world-wide, what with their one foreign naval base (long-standing in Syria) and their little green men taking over Crimea and still fighting in the East. They're everywhere! Guess we need to go in there, stir up schismatic religious feelings, yap about NATO expansion, manipulate the corrupt boy-actor-playing-president (maybe throw him a few bones), and see if we can scale this up.
 

Going strong

Crow
Trad Catholic
Gold Member
That cyrilic dick looks photoshopped, the configuration is not optimal from a logistical point, so it would be highly unlikely that the Russian army would do such a stunt.
Plus, the word "penis" would actually please, sooth and motivate the gay+female Western armed forces. Not really Dracula-Vlad the Impaler's terror strategy, here.

Unless it's a honeytrap to draw in the new trans-friendly US army?
 

911

Peacock
Gold Member
Agreed with the above, but, Ukraine was never going to implement the Minsk agreement. And NATO would not respect a "legally-binding" piece of paper, for long, either. How much longer can Putin pretend he didn't and doesn't know all this?

Putin is in a situation where, again and again, the West calls his bluff, and encroaches, and Putin dares not act. It's been going on since one year after the successful Crimea operation, Putin's masterpiece.

So at some point Putin has to flex muscles again, or Russia's foreign and internal enemies will reach the conclusion that he's never going to strike, whatever the provocations. Matter of fact I could bet the Pentagon has (erroneously?) reached this conclusion, and they sleep well.

Putin's red lines are clear, any substantial escalation of offensive weapons, large NATO personnel close enough to eastern Ukraine will trigger a military response.

At that point, if Ukraine counterattacks instead of taking it on the chin and scaling back their military deployment, then the tanks could roll in and the Russians would be in Dnipro in a week.

The only way to stop such a Russian invasion of Ukraine would be to use tactical nukes, the question is, would NATO resort to their use, in an attempt to blur the line between conventional weapons and nuclear? If they did, it would almost certainly provoke a Russian retaliation and bombing of NATO bases around eastern Europe, or even beyond that.

Russia doesn't want a war in Ukraine, or even a limited one. China on the other hand is ambivalent, if they are further "decoupled" as an economy with the West, with wider sanctions applied on Chinese corporations, they might want to have a limited military engagement in the Taiwan region where they could sink a couple of large American ships, to signal to the world who the new local boss is.

China would be very happy to pursue the current course though, growing at 5%-6% annually becoming the world's largest economy by the late 20s, provided the US doesn't escalate or go out of its way to impede China's economic growth, in the pattern of the Thucydides Trap. While Russia under Putin is a very rational and careful player, China is much more of an emotional player, their national pride is conflated with their national security.

The other key geopolitical frontline here is the situation in Iran, and the intentions of Israel. If Israel wants to bomb Iran, they might like to precipitate a military engagement in the Ukraine in order to force the US to bomb Russian ally Iran for them. Israel always gets to fight its local rivals with US blood and treasure, this has been their MO since 2000.

Blinken's stepfather was Robert Maxwell's lawyer and personal confidant. Robert Maxwell is the father of Guilaine, and arguably the most important and effective Israeli spy in the history of that country, so this kind of gives you an idea of where Blinken's allegiance lie...
 

Don Quixote

Pelican
Orthodox Inquirer
Same rhetoric from Biden. Literally nothing has changed. Does anyone think by Jan 10 there will be a massive turnaround? It looks like both parties are refusing to budge and just staring at one another. If nothing changes diplomatically, then what happens?
 
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