Ukraine conflict lounge

La Águila Negra

Ostrich
Protestant
Russia was in a much weaker position in 2014. Had Putin started a hot conflagration with the US back then, Russian forces in Syria would have been completely routed,

The 2014 timeline was a worst-case scenario for Russia so what exactly was avoided in 2014?

Ukraine went from being a relatively stable kleptocracy that swung between West-aligned oligarchs and Russia-aligned oligarchs (Ukraine pre-Maidan was always considered within the Russian sphere of influence), to being a de facto failed state that gets militarized by NATO to hurt Russia as much as it can. People like to talk about how pre-Maidan Ukraine wasn't exactly heaven either but from Russia's POV Kuchma or Yanukovich ranked 10/10 compared to what they have now.

What happened in 2014 was due to a mixture of 1. political paralysis and nihilistic attitudes domestically, and 2. indecisive and risk-averse Russian leadership. Reality is that Putin was constantly on the back foot and ended up in a whack-a-mole type of situation. Russia first witnessed it's entire defense strategy getting endangered due to its Southern flank getting ripped open by yet another blatant NATO expansion, after which it had to invade and takeover part of sovereign neighboring country, and instigate and maintain a bloody civil war in another part of said country.

This then resulted in nearly a decade of economic stagnation, Russia being relegated to an international pariah state in much of the West+ allies, ruined relations with Ukraine for decades to come and a frozen conflict which it doesn't control (like the ones in Georgia, Moldovia, Azerbaijan etc.) right on it's Eastern flank.

It also gave the USA a stick to hit the dog with as they can, almost at will, crank the pressure up or down. I said it before and I will say it again. In International Relations deterrents are key. Right now Russia doesn't have any major deterrent over the USA - and if it does have them it chooses not to use them.

People really need to stop talking about Putin like he is some geopolitical 4D chess Master Yoda.

the US would have taken over their naval base along with hundreds of Russian prisoners, it would have been a disaster of huge proportion for Putin. Instead he ended up winning the Syrian war, Russia now has the upper hand, Assad is there to stay, and the US is on the way out. Putin's patience paid off.

How could Putin involving himself in the early stages of a color revolution in a neighboring state and the umptieth broken Western promise have led to a direct US attack on Russian assets/ the Russian military?!

On the Ukraine front, Putin has completely locked down Crimea and he controls the situation there, Russian troops can roll in almost unimpeded to the Dnieper if and when NATO crosses Putin's red lines. Any escalation now could result in Putin unleashing his hypersonic missile strike force, a card he didn't have back in 2014 when Russia was still rebuilding its military and its economy.
Crimea is not locked down in fact it's one of the main headache dossiers for Russian military strategists. Kaliningrad and Crimea are due to their location targets for enemy military movements.

In case of escalation Ukrainian military can easily target and destroy the Kerch Bridge after which Crimea would be practically under a land siege, submarine warfare could make naval resupply a hindrance.
On top of that Russia can count on China's backing now, back in 2014 Xi was just starting to emerge from a tough battle for the leadership of the CCP, he took out both the neoliberal wing of the party (Soros' buddies Bo Xilai and Jiang Zemin) and the hardcore commie CCP Youth apparatus. Xi's position was still tenuous back in 2014, and China was far less assertive on the world scene than they are today. Here again Putin's patience paid off.
Putin has never been interested in a Russian-Chinese alliance. He was instead pushed towards the East.

Putin is the architect of the Greater Eurasian Initiative, a policy that he fully or partly pursued up until very recently (April 2021?). It explains the abusive West vs. Russia relationship. I think it boils down to personal preferences. Putin, like many of his predecessors is a great fan of European culture (especially German culture) and considers Russia to be part of Europe. We also shouldn't forget that Russia facing East would mean a break with 300 years of Russian focus on the West, starting with Peter the Great. Putin has always tried to come to some sort of West- Russia co-existence, thereby positioning Russia in between the Rising East and the (relatively declining) West. Up until recently the Russians only mentioned a possible Russian- Chinese rapprochement as a way to increase their value to the West when at the negotiating table.

The unofficial Russia-China alliance that is now emerging is not something that you can credit Putin for. It is instead the result of decades of aggressive Western Russophobia. Putin came to that conclusion fairly late, and it remains to be seen what this 'alliance' will bring. From first hand experience I can tell that many ordinary Russians are happy that Russia is now able to assert itself more with this powerful friend, but that they don't trust the Chinese for one bit.
 

La Águila Negra

Ostrich
Protestant
Not much has changed since ~1 month ago. Russia doesn't want Ukraine in its current dysfunctional state and with its hostile population. In case of 1. continuing NATO-ization (covert or out in the open) or 2. a military offensive in the Donbass it will be forced to react, which means military intervention. This will lead to the destruction of the Ukrainian military, a complete and final economic and political decoupling of Europe/USA and Russia, quite possibly the break up of the Ukrainian state and of course cold feet for many Europeans.

Everybody will lose in this situation, except the US and China. Some analysts continue to muse about the US' loss of face if the Ukrainian military gets destroyed, but Afghanistan shows that countries around the world will continue hedging their bets on a fleeting US.

A couple of podcasts and documentaries. Some are recent, some several weeks old. If people are interested in this topic and have the time I'd suggest watching all of these videos

Andrei Martyanov on Geopolitics and Empire


Scott Ritter on the Grayzone


Richard Sakwa on the Grayzone


The Duran with one of their latest videos, this time on Lavrov's interview with Russia Today


Great cinematic documentary on the Donbass War. Documentary on Brigade 93, from Ukrainian perspective, made by Lidiya Huzhva, financed by the Ukrainian Cultural Foundation. I enjoyed watching this documentary a lot and have watched it several times now.

Part 1


Part 2

 
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Papist

Woodpecker
Trad Catholic
The 2014 timeline was a worst-case scenario for Russia so what exactly was avoided in 2014?

Ukraine went from being a relatively stable kleptocracy that swung between West-aligned oligarchs and Russia-aligned oligarchs (Ukraine pre-Maidan was always considered within the Russian sphere of influence), to being a de facto failed state that gets militarized by NATO to hurt Russia as much as it can. People like to talk about how pre-Maidan Ukraine wasn't exactly heaven either but from Russia's POV Kuchma or Yanukovich ranked 10/10 compared to what they have now.

What happened in 2014 was due to a mixture of 1. political paralysis and nihilistic attitudes domestically, and 2. indecisive and risk-averse Russian leadership. Reality is that Putin was constantly on the back foot and ended up in a whack-a-mole type of situation. Russia first witnessed it's entire defense strategy getting endangered due to its Southern flank getting ripped open by yet another blatant NATO expansion, after which it had to invade and takeover part of sovereign neighboring country, and instigate and maintain a bloody civil war in another part of said country.

This then resulted in nearly a decade of economic stagnation, Russia being relegated to an international pariah state in much of the West+ allies, ruined relations with Ukraine for decades to come and a frozen conflict which it doesn't control (like the ones in Georgia, Moldovia, Azerbaijan etc.) right on it's Eastern flank.

It also gave the USA a stick to hit the dog with as they can, almost at will, crank the pressure up or down. I said it before and I will say it again. In International Relations deterrents are key. Right now Russia doesn't have any major deterrent over the USA - and if it does have them it chooses not to use them.

People really need to stop talking about Putin like he is some geopolitical 4D chess Master Yoda.



How could Putin involving himself in the early stages of a color revolution in a neighboring state and the umptieth broken Western promise have led to a direct US attack on Russian assets/ the Russian military?!


Crimea is not locked down in fact it's one of the main headache dossiers for Russian military strategists. Kaliningrad and Crimea are due to their location targets for enemy military movements.

In case of escalation Ukrainian military can easily target and destroy the Kerch Bridge after which Crimea would be practically under a land siege, submarine warfare could make naval resupply a hindrance.

Putin has never been interested in a Russian-Chinese alliance. He was instead pushed towards the East.

Putin is the architect of the Greater Eurasian Initiative, a policy that he fully or partly pursued up until very recently (April 2021?). It explains the abusive West vs. Russia relationship. I think it boils down to personal preferences. Putin, like many of his predecessors is a great fan of European culture (especially German culture) and considers Russia to be part of Europe. We also shouldn't forget that Russia facing East would mean a break with 300 years of Russian focus on the West, starting with Peter the Great. Putin has always tried to come to some sort of West- Russia co-existence, thereby positioning Russia in between the Rising East and the (relatively declining) West. Up until recently the Russians only mentioned a possible Russian- Chinese rapprochement as a way to increase their value to the West when at the negotiating table.

The unofficial Russia-China alliance that is now emerging is not something that you can credit Putin for. It is instead the result of decades of aggressive Western Russophobia. Putin came to that conclusion fairly late, and it remains to be seen what this 'alliance' will bring. From first hand experience I can tell that many ordinary Russians are happy that Russia is now able to assert itself more with this powerful friend, but that they don't trust the Chinese for one bit.

That's an excellent analysis. Do you write a blog on this? Where do you get your info?
 

Easy_C

Peacock
Russia was in a much weaker position in 2014. Had Putin started a hot conflagration with the US back then, Russian forces in Syria would have been completely routed, the US would have taken over their naval base along with hundreds of Russian prisoners, it would have been a disaster of huge proportion for Putin. Instead he ended up winning the Syrian war, Russia now has the upper hand, Assad is there to stay, and the US is on the way out. Putin's patience paid off.

And the US military is now exponentially less competent.
 

El Draque

Pelican
Orthodox
I speak with many Russians for my work. Normal Russians who live in Russia, and who are neither political spergs, or Westernised leftists, just normal everyday Russians.

Not one of them likes Putin. They talk about how low and base the propaganda is, and how Putin now plays for the lowest common denominator crowd. Old people who still get off on the fake and tired Strong Like Bear playbook. They talk about how corrupt he and his cronies are, and how paranoic he has become, and how egotistical and obsessed with his legacy he is.

It seems that he might be entered the cornered rat years in his office, where he clearly cannot retire, as whomever takes over will hang him out to dry for his corruption, or just bump him off, wherever in the world he scurries off too. So he has to hold onto power, simply as a survival mechanism.

This is what makes him dangerous and unpredictable IMHO. If he feels he has little to lose in throwing a hail mary for his legacy, amidst falling popularity at home, and a future of rivals sizing him up and plotting against him, then that does not bode well for hopes of peace.
 

Feyoder

Pelican
Exactly. That's why it felt like they were talking past one another. If this is really how the conversation went. How does it make sense that Biden says "we won't put weapons in Ukraine," and Putin responds with "I am going to take Ukraine and you will not give me financial sanctions." Seems like Putin is not talking to Biden, he is addressing those behind Biden. He knows that anything Biden says is probably not legitimate or credible. And Biden, by talking about nukes, seems to just be repeating what he's told by his handlers. At least that's the sense I get. It all seems weird and disjointed.

Yes well said. It was obvious, from day one, that biden is not in charge or commander of anything. How can he be?

Brother, I get your point. But if it happens, then it happens with nuke warfare involved. The lightweights and confused geriatrics running US policy would just hit the SHTF button. It is simply above their maturity/comprehensive level. Then it is "game on."

The current Nuclear Countdown clock is at 100 seconds. They haven't moved the time since 2020 - not that I put much stock in it. US and Russia have talks scheduled for January 10, 2022. Surely, calm heads can prevail until that time at least.


Nuclear war is a distraction for boomers and normies. It's theater. It'll never happen so it's a waste of time to even discuss it as a legitimate prospect vs as more circus in the bread and circus model (or some kind of narrative shaping).

This is what makes him dangerous and unpredictable IMHO. If he feels he has little to lose in throwing a hail mary for his legacy, amidst falling popularity at home, and a future of rivals sizing him up and plotting against him, then that does not bode well for hopes of peace.

Buying totally into the corona crap might have been when he unwittingly wrecked himself politically. It's obvious to everyone that it's an oligarchic power grab (no matter where you live), and the oligarchs in russia have already grabbed so much.

This then resulted in nearly a decade of economic stagnation [in ukraine]

Hugely appreciate your posts. Thanks. 8, and soon more, years lost economically:

1641105262321.png
 
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Thomas More

Hummingbird
Yes well said. It was obvious, from day one, that biden is not in charge or commander of anything. How can he be?



Nuclear war is a distraction for boomers and normies. It's theater. It'll never happen so it's a waste of time to even discuss it as a legitimate prospect vs as more circus in the bread and circus model (or some kind of narrative shaping).
You have more faith in humanity than me. I can easily see the military and politicians feeling forced to make a first strike, which obviously would be followed by retaliatory strikes.
 

Talus

Robin
Other Christian
Russian military tech is pretty clearly outpacing US military tech. @La Águila Negra posted a podcast with Andrei Martyanov, where he pretty clearly lays it out. Russia has already developed hypersonic missles that can travel at speeds in excess of mach 8. This makes them extremely difficult to be picked up by radar, and uninterceptable by known US missile defence systems. Russia doesn't need to ratchet this conflict up to a nuclear conflagration to come out on top. The idea that the US can compete with a country that still has a strong internal, national industry is a joke. Our country has been sold out and neutered by the Oligarchs, and now they're try to put our empty shell of a military on the Russian border. Lets hope they have the sense enough not to lead us into the fray.
 

Handsome Creepy Eel

Owl
Catholic
Gold Member
I speak with many Russians for my work. Normal Russians who live in Russia, and who are neither political spergs, or Westernised leftists, just normal everyday Russians.

Not one of them likes Putin. They talk about how low and base the propaganda is, and how Putin now plays for the lowest common denominator crowd. Old people who still get off on the fake and tired Strong Like Bear playbook. They talk about how corrupt he and his cronies are, and how paranoic he has become, and how egotistical and obsessed with his legacy he is.

It seems that he might be entered the cornered rat years in his office, where he clearly cannot retire, as whomever takes over will hang him out to dry for his corruption, or just bump him off, wherever in the world he scurries off too. So he has to hold onto power, simply as a survival mechanism.

This is what makes him dangerous and unpredictable IMHO. If he feels he has little to lose in throwing a hail mary for his legacy, amidst falling popularity at home, and a future of rivals sizing him up and plotting against him, then that does not bode well for hopes of peace.
Pretty sad to see that average Russians are that cucked. I guess if they had some satanic public child rape festivals (sorry, gay pride parades), but Putin was a bit more refined and cultured with his messaging, it would make them happier?

Morons.
 

El Draque

Pelican
Orthodox
Pretty sad to see that average Russians are that cucked. I guess if they had some satanic public child rape festivals (sorry, gay pride parades), but Putin was a bit more refined and cultured with his messaging, it would make them happier?

Morons.

Maybe they live there, are intelligent, balanced individuals that dont draw their entire political viewpoint from a succession of memes, rather their day to day lives within Russia.
 

bucky

Ostrich
Other Christian
Russian military tech is pretty clearly outpacing US military tech. @La Águila Negra posted a podcast with Andrei Martyanov, where he pretty clearly lays it out. Russia has already developed hypersonic missles that can travel at speeds in excess of mach 8. This makes them extremely difficult to be picked up by radar, and uninterceptable by known US missile defence systems. Russia doesn't need to ratchet this conflict up to a nuclear conflagration to come out on top. The idea that the US can compete with a country that still has a strong internal, national industry is a joke. Our country has been sold out and neutered by the Oligarchs, and now they're try to put our empty shell of a military on the Russian border. Lets hope they have the sense enough not to lead us into the fray.
I have no idea who to believe about supposed Russian military technical superiority or lack thereof, but one thing Russia's got is that it's full of of actual Russians who love Russia. Contrast that with the US and how fake paper Americans who wouldn't dream of dying for the US probably outnumber those who would. Just based on that alone it's pretty clear that trying to fight the Russians is a very bad idea.
 

911

Peacock
Gold Member
Maybe they live there, are intelligent, balanced individuals that dont draw their entire political viewpoint from a succession of memes, rather their day to day lives within Russia.

These guys are well-meaning, but pretty naive, they lack perspective on geopolitics, history and the Gramscian dynamics of cultural takeover and planned degeneracy. They tend to have neoliberal tendencies that idealize anything western, and have virtually no understanding of the cultural and social trajectory in the West, because they've never known what the West was like 40-60 years ago.

You have exactly the same mindset with most Iranian expats and urban types, 80%-90% of them want regime change in Iran, naively believing that the next government that ZOG will set up for them will have their country flourishing.

Fact is, Putin saved Russia from the 1990s liberal dystopia, that country's worst period since the Bolshevik terror of the 1920s-30s, when young women had to prostitute themselves to eat, old people literally withered on the streets, throngs of orphans roamed the streets like packs of wild dogs and young men in despair drank themselves to death by the million.

https://paullikoudis.wordpress.com/2011/03/24/the-plunder-of-russia-in-the-1990s/

Objectively speaking, Putin righted the ship, taking back the country's assets, rebuilding its infrastructure, paying off Russia's debt while building up huge gold and currency reserves. He turned Russia from a Weimar-level failed state into the world's 6th largest economy, poised to surpass Germany as the leading European economic power, while restoring its military strength.

He turned a starving country, that had to import cereals from the West in order not to starve (both under the Soviet regime and in the neoliberal 90s dystopia) into the world's leading exporter of cereals, a global food superpower, while maintaining the ban on GMOs and checking the excessive power of global big agrobusiness, who have been taking over the agriculture sector across the EU and in countries like India and Argentina.

DWKkmx2WkAEEFwM.jpg



Urban Russians have always had an inferiority complex towards the West, dating back to the Russian Revolution and much before that. This dynamic is very much present today among them, they will believe Putin is a monster while thinking that people like Obama, Trudeau or Macron are great forward-looking humanitarians instead of globalists tools that hate their populace and are actively destroying their countries.
 

911

Peacock
Gold Member
I have no idea who to believe about supposed Russian military technical superiority or lack thereof, but one thing Russia's got is that it's full of of actual Russians who love Russia. Contrast that with the US and how fake paper Americans who wouldn't dream of dying for the US probably outnumber those who would. Just based on that alone it's pretty clear that trying to fight the Russians is a very bad idea.

The notion that western countries like France, Germany or even the US are going to put boots on the ground that will die by the thousands in order to "save" Estonia or western Ukraine is ridiculous (or Taiwan for that matter), and at some level NATO brass understands that. They can however throw 1,500+ fighter jets into the fray, but basically Russia, like China, have been planning for that kind of scenario for decades, putting in place the tools for a successful area denial strategy.

Russia's new generation of weapons is designed to implement that strategy, for example they have modernized their fleet of Mach3 Mig31 interceptors and equipped them with Mach10 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles that can take out tankers and AWACS planes from 1,000mi out, effectively denying access to most of the NATO jet fleet to the frontlines.

The US is still by a wide margin the world's greatest military power, but Russia is stronger in terms of fighting the kind of small-scale or bigger war that would take place at its border, their whole military philosophy has been geared towards that goal, while US military doctrine has been shaped by the mission to dominate large swaths of the third world (Mideast, Africa etc). At the same time the US MIC has gotten lazier, fatter and more corrupt than ever, so the armed forces have been getting less and less value for their buck, while the opposite is true for Russia, and for China, which relies on, among other things, an effective spy network to cut down its research costs (with Israel being the main broker here).

This reality is the reason why Russia and China have been getting bolder today, they no longer fear a military engagement on their borders andtheir terms with the US/NATO.
 

Going strong

Crow
Trad Catholic
Gold Member
I speak with many Russians for my work. Normal Russians who live in Russia, and who are neither political spergs, or Westernised leftists, just normal everyday Russians.

I speak, and have been speaking for many years, with many "normal Russians", too.

And so, I disagree with what you are saying. Most of the (male or female) Russians I speak to, like (a lot) Vladimir Putin.

For example, each time I went on holiday to Crimea and spoke (or drank!) with many middle-class Russians, who came by train, car or plane, they clearly loved Putin. 95% like Putin, I'd say.

The thing is, I speak with regular normal Russians, whereas you yourself said that you speak with Russians linked to your work. So, probably (no offense meant) some Moscovite snobby types, with fancy (liberal?) university degrees or some. Not really representative of the great tough Russian people.

Regarding Putin now, well... I used to consider he was a great patriotic genius. Nowadays, I still respect him a lot, but I partially agree with parts of the post from Aguila Negra above... and matter of fact I several times wrote here about how Putin is so cautious ("risk-adverse") that it has become very easy to guess his moves. He always goes for the safe bet (setting apart his one-shot great genius operation in Crimea), which served Russia well during decades, but which is now about to do a disservice to Russia. Because this year, Russia needs a big bold move, it's now or never if Putin wants to push NATO back.
 
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Don Quixote

Pelican
Orthodox Inquirer
Russian military tech is pretty clearly outpacing US military tech. @La Águila Negra posted a podcast with Andrei Martyanov, where he pretty clearly lays it out. Russia has already developed hypersonic missles that can travel at speeds in excess of mach 8. This makes them extremely difficult to be picked up by radar, and uninterceptable by known US missile defence systems. Russia doesn't need to ratchet this conflict up to a nuclear conflagration to come out on top. The idea that the US can compete with a country that still has a strong internal, national industry is a joke. Our country has been sold out and neutered by the Oligarchs, and now they're try to put our empty shell of a military on the Russian border. Lets hope they have the sense enough not to lead us into the fray.
This is why Biden is throwing out the term "nuclear" a lot as its the only thing that as absurd as it sounds can be used as a bargaining chip.
 

El Draque

Pelican
Orthodox
The thing is, I speak with regular normal Russians, whereas you yourself said that you speak with Russians linked to your work. So, probably (no offense meant) some Moscovite snobby types, with fancy (liberal?) university degrees or some. Not really representative of the great tough Russian people.

I speak with russians from all over. They are clients of mine, and nothing like you suggest. Of my regulars, two in Kazan one in Bezaristan (sp), two in moscow. Most work IT jobs. None of them rail or obsess about him, they just see him through their lives, and are sick of all the propaganda, narcissism and corruption

The cognitive bias to Putin on here is so tired. People portray him as they want him to be. Fine, have your hero, whilst sitting in your western countries, watching on from distorted lenses.

Reality for vast majority of Russians that dont just soak up the propaganda is different.
 

El Draque

Pelican
Orthodox
You have exactly the same mindset with most Iranian expats and urban types, 80%-90% of them want regime change in Iran, naively believing that the next government that ZOG will set up for them will have their country flourishing.


What an absurd, innacurate and frankly insulting statement.
 

Feyoder

Pelican
I speak with russians from all over. They are clients of mine, and nothing like you suggest. Of my regulars, two in Kazan one in Bezaristan (sp), two in moscow. Most work IT jobs. None of them rail or obsess about him, they just see him through their lives, and are sick of all the propaganda, narcissism and corruption

The cognitive bias to Putin on here is so tired. People portray him as they want him to be. Fine, have your hero, whilst sitting in your western countries, watching on from distorted lenses.

Reality for vast majority of Russians that dont just soak up the propaganda is different.

Forget it man many have been take in by the POOOTIN BASED?!? meme.

He’s a globalist lackey as we’ve seen from the corona virus, and the leader, and maybe chief criminal, of a mafia state.

Good example: you will go to jail in Russia for posting anything merely questioning mass Muslim immigration from the caucas states (these people also rape and commit crimes in Russia at a hugely disproportionate rate). You’re not allowed to question the cheap labor source Russian oligarchs are using to undermine the wages of native born people. Just one example.

That said, yes the gay law stuff is great. But Putin himself signalled at the time to the oligarchs the he’s cool with gays. Also, the law was pushed on him by more conservative members of the party.
 
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