2 steps forward, one step back. See: How Communists Negotiate by VADM Turner Joy. Accepting a troop reduction would mean they by inference accept eastward expansion. But realistically there's nothing Russia can do in the near-term short of war to reduce US forces or NATO influence.At the same time Blinken says U.S. never promised they would not expand Eastward lol. Such conflicting, confusing messaging.
There is some suspicion that Mi6 was behind it and the U.S. is just getting up to speed on what happened. Maybe U.S. is now considered incompetent, only to be brought in when they need big guns.Here is an interesting article about the Khazakstan crisis. TLDR the crisis is front page news in Russia. Not only is their border with Khazakstan longer than the US border with Canada, but they have key nuclear resources in the country. There is suspicion that the US was behind the coup.
Russian can't afford to have crisis in the Ukraine and on the Khazak border at the same time, so it may force them to do something drastic in the Ukraine.
So its not farfetched that the US is de-escalating in the Ukraine. Or, Russia is putting out misinformation so that it can move troops from the Donbass to the Khazak border without losing face. Either is possible.
Personally I think the Khazak coup was organic. If the U.S. were behind it, there would be U.S. propoganda in the U.S. for domestic consumption but I haven't seen any yet.
U.S. embassy is urging Americans to leave Ukraine.
I get the sense that the United States wants Russia to invade Ukraine. I just don't get what their longterm rationale for that is.
Isn't the main purpose of NATO and the U.S. military budget that countries have to buy weapons? Companies give money to politicians, politicians give tax-money to companies. Do you remember when Trump was criticizing countries for not buying enough weapons that they don't need? Same business model with covid vaccines. In my town, they tear open the road every year and then repair it, because the budget has to be spend. Almost every country nowadays has a standing army...99% of them never go to war, but they all have to buy weapons.The Global Military Complex needs a new theatre of conflict to use as a trade show to sell kit.
When was the last one of any note, Arm-Azeri conflict shifted a lot of drones, no doubt, but is small beer compared to a major international conflict like Ukr-Rus would be.
Far from the sole purpose, but not an insignificant one IMHO.
Moscow will take "other measures and methods" in relation to Western partners if the US and NATO do not take into account Russian demands.So the talks have been concluded. A spectacular failure. Nothing was agreed upon and we have hit a total deadlock.
At the root of the problem lies the unwillingness of NATO/the US to address the concerns of those it considers its adversaries. There is simply no political will to come to an agreement or even understanding.
This mindset of unipolarism has been prevalent since WWll and became normalized after 1991. The US dictates, the rest of the world follows. Those who don't toe the line get either regime changed, are invaded or are strangled into poverty and desperation.
It's all fading. All the tricks up their sleeve seem to have lost their impact. These days getting an insurrection/civil war going is the best the US can do.
In the last years certain economic and military undercurrents have massively accelerated. These are tectonic shifts that are -for now- unstoppable. In those fields the US has lost its dominance, assertiveness. It's credibility and image have been tainted.
Yet it's attitude remains unchanged. They still tread around with the same aura of invincibility and chutzpah. Sometimes I wonder if this really is theater. The current class of US policy makers consists of infantile leftist ideological do-gooders, US exceptionalists, Israel First-ers and an ever declining number of relatively sane yet outdated realists. All of them compromised through Big Bizz, Big Tech, the MIC and every other trillion dollar business under the sun. But it could very well be that some of them have become so detached from reality that they are simply unaware of the discrepancy between US power projection and their loud mouths.
The Russians have called their bluff. The US have no cards to play. NATO/US can't fight a war in Eastern Europe - and if they would they'd lose. Nor can they hurt Russia by economic warfare. Imposing sanctions would mean that either half of Western Europe'd grind to an immediate standstill or the entire US position in Europe would crumble as many countries - Hungary, Germany, Bulgaria, Croatia for example - would open negotiations with Russia on their own.
The naked Emperor.
Yet the DC apparatchiks continue to talk as if in charge. During the recent talks the US refused to rule out NATO accession for Ukraine and Georgia - and as talks were prepared/underway a new 200 million USD weapon shipment for Ukraine was greenlighted, a second arms transfer consisting of Stinger MANPADS is in the making and more transfers (presumably of modern anti-air defense systems - a complete no-no for the Russians) are discussed
If this continues like this something will break. The Russians have turned up the heat and want to come to an agreement. NATO/US have promised to respond to the proposals within 7 days. If there will be no response or a response in the same evasive-sabotaging-unclear BS language we are all accustomed to negotiations will halt and Russia will take 'other measures and methods'
Moscow will take "other measures and methods" in relation to Western partners if the US and NATO do not take into account Russian demands.
What are these? My guess is that Russia will either neutralize the Ukrainian threat or potentially do exactly what they complain of the U.S. doing by placing missile systems in Venezuela or Cuba, if such a thing is possible. Basically, 1962 all over again?
I agree with all the points above. The one "card" (if you can call it that) that U.S. has is mutually assured destruction. The United States is so delusional at this point, I could see them panicking if they actually lose and then decide as a last ditch effort to go nuclear. They'd all go to their tunnels in Colorado anyways.