What to Invest in the next 3 years?

trickster

 
Banned
Yes I have. It helps to be in a career or know people in a career that do business with the elderly. Usually this means dealing with the kids or grand-kids of the people that actually own the insurance policies. There are different govt benefits for the elderly that require financial/legal planning in order to qualify. In other words, these benefits have net worth limitations (i.e. you can't have more than $XXXX.XX and still qualify). So if someone has a whole life policy with a cash surrender value of, say, $40,000 and a death benefit of $70,000, then they need to surrender the policy in order to spend-down/do planning. Or maybe the person just bought too much insurance and needs the liquidity to move into an assisted living facility or hire home care. They key point to remember is that the policy owner must be in poor health. You don't want to buy a policy from someone that is going to live for another 10 years.
 
I would invest firstly in cryptocurrencies and companies related to the blockchain business now, considered the prices going down a lot and the market being undervalued. To balance the risks of the high volatility, also I would include gold as a perfect asset to hedge.
 

bgbusiness

Kingfisher
Stocks - Tesla, Dropbox, Square
Crypto - Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP (Ripple), Binance, 0x.
Real Estate - Start from your own neighborhood and nearby cities, but right now there is a bubble, would be super careful with these.

Thank me later.
 

samifon

Pigeon
bgbusiness said:
Stocks - Tesla, Dropbox, Square
Crypto - Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP (Ripple), Binance, 0x.
Real Estate - Start from your own neighborhood and nearby cities, but right now there is a bubble, would be super careful with these.

Thank me later.

These companies have consistently lost money and already have huge market caps. What makes you think that these are good investments?
 

ChicagoFire

Kingfisher
bgbusiness said:
Stocks - Tesla, Dropbox, Square
Crypto - Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP (Ripple), Binance, 0x.
Real Estate - Start from your own neighborhood and nearby cities, but right now there is a bubble, would be super careful with these.

Thank me later.

Why would you advocate for Tesla when Elon Musk has underperformed year after year? Objectively speaking Musk is a living joke. The only thing I respect about the man is his positive and zero fucks attitude.

Crypto IMO is a libertarian's wet dream where government crashes and the 1000 or so investors rule the world with their tulip mania inspired money (not happening). FYI I do own crypto and once I go to a lower tax state I will sell or swap it for real assets.
 

Lampwick

Woodpecker
Gold Member
ChicagoFire said:
Why would you advocate for Tesla when Elon Musk has underperformed year after year? Objectively speaking Musk is a living joke. The only thing I respect about the man is his positive and zero fucks attitude.

Tesla is the canary in the coal mine. As long as people are willing and able to throw money at a company this stupid, the bull run in the stock market should continue. Once Tesla falls over, watch out.
 

bgbusiness

Kingfisher
samifon said:
bgbusiness said:
Stocks - Tesla, Dropbox, Square
Crypto - Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP (Ripple), Binance, 0x.
Real Estate - Start from your own neighborhood and nearby cities, but right now there is a bubble, would be super careful with these.

Thank me later.

These companies have consistently lost money and already have huge market caps. What makes you think that these are good investments?

Same thing over and over again. I get this comment a lot and it's super annoying how I have to answer this all the time.

Any business that are relatively new are going to have negative cash flow initially and then eventually the initial investment is going to pay off over the years as the cashflow becomes positive.

This isn't no hard asset like real estate where you need positive cash flow from Day 1. What kind of investing strategy is that? Even in real estate, you have to put 10%~25% of down payment. You LOSE MONEY FIRST.
However, you collect rent and those rents (cash flow) will eventually be more than the initial investment that you have put in...

Do you think guys at Sillicon Valley stop investing in these companies because they all lose money in the first several years?

How do you think companies like Amazon, Google, Netflix, Facebook become so BIG today? Huge initial investment and HUGE risks were taken.

I am not trying to put you on the spot, but I am not completely sure what your trying to come across. Your ignorance is bleeding through your comments...

Even humans are not able to sustain themselves and are negative ROI until they become adults.
Think of Parents = investors.
Do you think you or I had the ability to make our own income at the age of 1? NO.

Same as companies. Startups/Comapnies are basically a form of an organism just like us. Once there is enough attention and resources invested the first several years, they are able to be self-sustainable and also contribute more to the world. Just like humans turn 18, go to college or whatever and are able to sustain themselves and also have positive impact of life.

At the end of the day, do whatever you want, don't invest in companies that are LOSING money because there are millions of people who disagree with you and THESE companies will continue to raise capital from investors.
 

bgbusiness

Kingfisher
ChicagoFire said:
Why would you advocate for Tesla when Elon Musk has underperformed year after year?

How? His sales have gone up. His margins have gone up.
Where are you getting 'underperformed'?
They are at the edge of becoming cash flow positive.
Tesla's branding is strong as ever, year by year they are improving their manufacturing and have beaten quarterly financial targets.
What are you talking about? his stock is up 10x+ since year 2010/2011.

ChicagoFire said:
Crypto IMO is a libertarian's wet dream where government crashes and the 1000 or so investors rule the world with their tulip mania inspired money (not happening).

Yeah, that's your opinion as you said "IMO".
We will see in few years. I don't think you understand the basic of how technology works, you probably missed out on Amazon, Google, Facebook's uprise as missed out on the "internet"

ChicagoFire said:
FYI I do own crypto and once I go to a lower tax state I will sell or swap it for real assets.

Real assets like what, real estate? You have no idea what intangible assets are, it would be better if you just stick to laundry machine/vending machine businesses that you can actually simply understand.
You do you, but I can guarantee that real estate is in bigger bubble than crypto or any of those stocks that I have mentioned. Nothing has happened over the last 10 years since the 2008 crash.

The market is unsustainable ever where people who got of college are able to buy houses worth a quarter million with no deposit or minimum deposit.
 

ChicagoFire

Kingfisher
^^
Agreed for the most part especially using cash to buy distressed assets. The blue pilled normie crowd think the Trump rally is going to last forever. Once recession hits will be the time to swoop ;)

I heard about Tesla and Elon Musk in depth through Eric Townsend, an economist. The gist of what he said is the following:

Musk is the modern day PT Barnum
His stock isn't worth more than $20/share
With the previous points in mind Townsend made the mistake of shorting Tesla
Tesla has underperformed year after year
Musk can pick himself up failure after failure as if nothing has happened
Musk quite possibly will suffer from a mental breakdown as evidenced by some of his erratic tweets. Bankruptcy may trigger it.
Tesla's cars are inferior.

I wouldn't want to short Tesla but at the same time bankruptcy may very well cause Tesla to drop even further.

As for real estate you don't have to go all in on that there are REITs. Also if real estate is so bad the big ballers like Donald Trump would be shaking right?

Already stated my position on crypto, and will repeat it's tulip driven mania. Precious metals will appreciate as the dollar weakens.
 
Amazon and tech. It's definitely a gamble. With such high PE ratio, do you guys imagine Jeff Bezo worth 300 billion dollars in 5 years? That is insane. I might just buy another share of Amazon just for the heck of it. I already have a small position. QQQ is a tech heavy ETF. I might just bet on it slowly through dollar cost average.

The question in hand is how to invest in a market that has an imminent possibly of a large correction.

I already have a position in real estate and stocks which I have no plans to sell in the next 5-20 years. My current cash is earning 2% in CD and high yield MM, and of course I'll be making more money in the next 3 years.

I think I'll allocate 50% of my investable cash and dollar cost average into several ETFs and index fund. Of the remaining 50%, half of that will be dumped in in several tranches as the market drop 5%, 10%, 12%, 15%. If the market does not correct in 3 years, I'll have caught some more of the bull run, but still end up rather cash heavy. With that cash in had I'll bite the bullet and buy a house despite it being so expensive.

Just for fun, I'll divide between tech QQQ, high dividend VYM, and tiny bit of Amazon and see which one comes out ahead.

Our crazy stock market continues. Looking back I did not quite stick to my guns. I Originally bought Amazon at 900, then at 1800 when I thought was expensive. I didn't buy too many shares so I only made a small profit on that.

I talked about QQQ but did not get in. How I regret that. All talk no play. My VYM is barely breaking even. I did continue to buy S&P 500 ETF as it went down in March so I made a handsome profit off it.

Overall I cannot complain. I am closer to the side of Wallstreet than the main street. I continued to invest despite the 2018 highs. I have enjoyed the recovery. Would have enjoyed more if I bought QQQ haha.

But the tough question still lies ahead. With the insane PE ratio of QQQ do I still get in. Looking back at my own quote in 2018 where I thought it was not possible for Bezos to be worth $300 billion. Guess what, if wasn't for the divorce, he is almost there. WTF?

I guess I'll have to dollar cost my ass into the market - QQQ, S&P 500, EVT.
 
Wow, almost a year since my last update. I was still too cautious to invest in QQQ, but I kept dollar cost average into S & P 500, and bought some EVT. This crazy market just keep going up. Do I wish I had invested more, earlier? Of course. Just like I wished I had listened to the forum members and bought bitcoins 3 years ago. I do still have considerable cash on the sideline, and I do fear inflation, but overall I am satisfied and grateful with my investment portfolio.

Just for fun, I am predicting S&P at 4400 at the end of the year, and bitcoin at 2800. I have nothing to back up my prediction :) it's just fun to predict and put my money where my mouth is. I'll continue my small s&p contribution.
 

Dilated

Woodpecker
Other Christian
You want income not growth. Intelligently leveraged, established, dividend-generating CEF’s carefully picked for excellent fund managers and large portfolios. With growth funds you’re at the mercy of the market. You want to get paid no matter what the market does- welfare for white guys.

Set up a mix of munis and corps for tax mitigation.

My CEF portfolio has been through 2 of the 3 worst economic catastrophies in the last 200 hundred years with little to no negative impact.

Added bonus- you can day trade these funds as they can sell at a discount.
 
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I'm just doing what I've been doing for the last 8 years. S&P500 and a very low cost local ETF I'm investing in that spans around 3000 companies

Not as fast as a yolololo meme stock but as I'm actively try to avoid anything to do with clown world, it's not hard either.

I don't really understand crypto but I'm toying with a crypto ETF. I believe I did read something about one.
 

Knight.of.Logos

Woodpecker
Orthodox
(1) There will be stock options at my upcoming job, so that covers that.

(2) I will try to get more precious metals, especially silver.

(3) Then I will DCA more into crypto.

I'd love to get into real estate, but I don't have that kind of money to invest and likely won't anytime soon.
 
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