What will major Western cities look like in 3-5-10+ years time?

PixelFree

Kingfisher
If we take the gloomer view here, what do you think major Western cities look like in 3-5-10+ years time? (if a major economic collapse takes place)

I'm talking about LA, NYC, Sydney, Melbourne, London, Paris, Rome, Berlin, Madrid, Vancouver, Auckland, Stockholm, etc.

My best guess. We can already predict some things as some of these cities are more advanced than others. I'm expecting some combination of the following (and at varying levels of intensity):
  • Wider and wider rich and poor gap (and even if you earn 250k today, you still won't be in the rich club). $1M minimum for a house, gated communities with private security, private clubs/bars/restaurants that require $$$ membership to enter
  • Higher cost of living (vast majority cannot eat out or afford cars, for example)
  • Working harder for less money, higher taxes
  • Less Churches
  • The continued mass migration of the third world (China, India, Africa each have over 1B people)
  • More speed cameras, police drones, CCTV, tracking (and maybe cashless or near cashless)
  • Higher number of homeless
  • Many no go zone or slum areas (favelas/ghettos)
  • Higher crime
  • More people on prescription meds, more divorce, more single people, lower native birth rates
  • More general despair and higher suicide rate
  • Smaller, nosier and lower quality housing
  • Poorer quality air and water
  • More degeneracy (prostitution, many all weekend long clubs, bars, sex parties - think Berlin today)

Would they resemble something like a Sao Paulo or Johannesburg? As in livable (you'd stay if you had family) but you wouldn't choose to move there.

And further to that, would our secondary cities, regional and rural areas be a big steps down from that, only trailing behind by 10+ years or so?

Mainly interested to know if people think this will happen, how long it might take and are the less populated areas somewhat sheltered or not.
 

kel

Pelican
Brazilification, basically what you describe, is my bet.

The thing about "collapse" is that the oligarch class will still be able to do what they do - even moreso in fact - and there will be a sizeable (though smaller than now perhaps) middle manager class who support them and will be offered relatively cushy lives for doing it.
 

Speculation

Kingfisher
Besides the widening income disparity, I think the worst thing about future Western cities will be the social alienation and feeling of disconnection from the broader community. The internet has had a devastating effect of national cohesion, particularly in the West where there is a strong cultural trend of individualism over collectivism. You can spend your time building a community with your online niche identity group of choice, but then you've distanced yourself from the majority of fellow citizens. When I leave my apartment in Australia I feel like I have nothing in common with the majority of people I see or talk to until I get home. Multiculturalism is only accelerating this effect. Despite government efforts to promote civic nationalism, it seems to be just a bandaid over the deep divides between the silo-ed ethnic and political communities.

This social disconnect is what will make the future in the West a true dystopia. I've already figured out that after 20 years of dopamine dispensing technological distractions that I've wasted time in building a life of meaning (family, community, God). When I do build those things I fully expect the majority of citizens around me to consider me some sort of traditionalist crazy man.

But getting back on topic, yes I think the cities of the future are heading towards Bladerunner more than Star Trek.

I think the best plan is to piggyback off of this new remote working revolution and move to a regional area. The mass exodus from cities has already begun. People in Victoria are buying regional properties sight unseen in many cases and I expect this will continue. The regional areas should be more sheltered as some of the worst decadence and decay in western cities is due to a concentration of particular groups (politic/ideological) which would be impossible to sustain over the whole country.
 

animum-rege

Sparrow
Since you have done a nice job covering the poor outcome (which unfortunately I think is likely), I will say that there is cause for optimism. The number one factor that has driven city growth is the need for physical proximity. In just the last few years, that need no longer exists for a great many jobs due to significantly faster internet bandwidth. (Altucher said in his NYC piece- we are “AB,” after bandwidth).

We have already seen impacts of this. If you wanted to work in finance or advertising 50 years ago, you HAD to be in Manhattan. Same for tech and SF 20 years ago. Now, there are so many options you can choose where to work. City living is a luxury good, not a necessity. (Note how rapidly the “value” of city living collapsed — because it is all perception).

Thus, as big cities collapse, it is my fervent hope that a blossoming of “second” and “third tier” cities takes place. Essentially the return of the prosperous town vs the monolithic city. Supported by a core of decentralized creative professionals who take root and then support the local/physical service businesses around them.

Small cities are more conducive to community and shared values. They are also more resistant to the policies that ruin large cities, such as unregulated immigration and permitting vast sections of the town to lapse into slums.

Unfortunately, I do believe your outcome is more likely. This is just a potential outcome that I find more appealing, although unlikely.
 

EndlessGravity

Woodpecker
if a major economic collapse takes place
One has already taken place. Search for the data and spend some time with it. There's lots of it, some complex in context, but the number of people who are not paying their rent or mortgage is the only number you need pay attention to. The economy is broken, probably beyond comprehension, let alone repair. They can't keep the shell game going on for too much longer. Maybe it'll be this year or next but the effects are already here.

Official documents on military-like police right out of a sci-fi movie to control New York are probably not coincidence. They expect a high-tech-driven version of Brazil, as @kel states. Brazilification is the future of 1st, 2nd, and 3rd-tier cities, at best.

However your question about smaller or more rural areas is interesting. We've been looking for a new property and it's a constant conversation about "methheads" and what will happen as the economy unravels. Leonard D Neubache's old recommendations will probably prove reliable on what to expect: towns with no more than 3,000 people, demographically similar, few roads in and out, some walled-defense, a small internal economy, and nearby farmland will fair best.
 

Handsome Creepy Eel

Owl
Gold Member
I think that major cities will basically cease to exist in their current form.

When you consider what a rich person will do, take into account that no amount of money, gated communities and private memberships can save a rich person from 1000+ strong bloodthirsty roving mobs. What we consider upped middle and upper class will simply disappear as their jobs start being slashed, their livelihoods are deconstructed piece by piece, and their nice skyscrapers and urban villas are turned into elite deathtraps.

This will inevitably result in the cities turning into giant slums filled with crime and despair, with a few upscale but still dangerous areas, while the rich will live on luxury ranches and resorts far away in the countryside, since those areas are very easy to supply and defend, and luxuries can easily be imported. Since the economy will be mostly digital by that point, they will be able to exert their influence from there just as easily.

For an example, think how Mexican drug lords live on enormous haciendas in the rural areas, with multiple layers of private security forces controlling access. This allows them to resist intrusions by even professional military forces, let alone ragtag SJW bandits.





To sum up, given the tremendous chaos and violence the western countries are headed towards, I don't see them turning into dangerous and stratified, but still stable and livable places like in South America, Africa or Asia; instead, I see something with far more inequality and physical distance between the haves and the have-nots than what we've experienced recently. Perhaps something akin to a tightly controlled feudal society.
 

bucky

Pelican
Brazilification, basically what you describe, is my bet.

The thing about "collapse" is that the oligarch class will still be able to do what they do - even moreso in fact - and there will be a sizeable (though smaller than now perhaps) middle manager class who support them and will be offered relatively cushy lives for doing it.
This. The only thing I'd add that is that parallel to the middle managers there will also be a skilled technician class (engineers, programmers, maybe skilled trades like plumbers and electricians) who will be useful to the elites and, therefore, offered the same relatively high living standard. I'm shooting for being a part of that class.
 

kel

Pelican
I'm shooting to be out of the rat race and cities as much as possible by then, though it seems to be coming even quicker than a quasi-doomer like me was predicting. But, I'm glad I'm a programmer and will be relatively job secure (and able to keep doing it remotely) if needed.
 

animum-rege

Sparrow
One has already taken place. Search for the data and spend some time with it. There's lots of it, some complex in context, but the number of people who are not paying their rent or mortgage is the only number you need pay attention to. The economy is broken, probably beyond comprehension, let alone repair. They can't keep the shell game going on for too much longer. Maybe it'll be this year or next but the effects are already here.
Reminds me of a guy I knew who was a long-time LEO & SWAT officer. He told me about responding to a call years ago. A guy holding a knife charged an LEO; LEO puts a few rounds in his chest. The guy drops the knife, holds his hands up, says "I surrender," calmly walks over the squad car, bends over and puts his hands behind his back, knowing that the officer would want him in that position to arrest him. He then falls over and dies.

I feel like the economy is that perp. The fatal shots have been fired; we're just walking around like normal because we haven't yet realized we're dead.

And as the "protestors" evolve from well-fed, iPhone-equipped college grads to people with nothing to lose who are hungry, broke, and armed — well, she'll get hot RIGHT quick.
 
Here is my best guess of what the Western Cities will look like in 5-10 years time.

Keep in mind however, that many countries are all unique and have different situations. Most of what I am describing here will be the United States, although shittier European countries like France will also be in this camp.

  • Complete lack of meaningful organization. Just getting your driver's license will be akin to getting one in Peru. Not hating on Peru, it's a great country, but America and eventually Europe will start falling into 2nd and 3rd world inefficiency. Things will take forever for little to no reason. Roads are already falling into disrepair in the city I am from (Atlanta.) Justice system will become even more ineffective. Internet will start to get spotty, expect the speeds to drop even with 5G. Loadshedding for power and water will be implemented, and already has in California. California is the future of the West, and especially America. You will no longer be living in the country your ancestors built, white man.
  • A further separation from the Haves and Have nots, as another poster alluded to earlier. The white middle class will be extinct very shortly. You will either be well off, or live in somewhat of a Favela, hood type situation. I expect South Africa style private security, gated walls and cameras for the rich neighborhoods.
  • After Texas flips blue in 2024, the United States will never again elect a Republican President or government, and not that it really matters anyway. Millions (Probably 25-30 million) illegal immigrants will be granted YOUR citizenship, and will proceed to tax out the social security, welfare, and any public services system completely. This means that they will cease to exist, and thus the entire point of even living in the United States (Social safety net and high wages) will be completely negated.
  • The lock-downs will be a permanent part of life for the retarded American slave. Most of the world, especially Tier 1 Asian countries are efficient and will be able to move forward from this pandemic, however the US will not. This year, 2020, will be remembered as the year that America never recovered. America will never be the same, that country is completely dead and gone at this point I'm afraid. Expect to be tightly controlled, and forced to take a Vaccine if you live in a large american city, want to fly on an american airline, or want to work for an american corporation.
  • Forced de-gentrification. White hipsters and the like the gentrified areas will be legally forced to move because of "white privilege" and muh oppression. This means that blacks will be given free reign to completely destroy society, which will not take them long. They've already destroyed the capital of the South, Atlanta. Expect Raleigh NC, Nashville TN to be completely wrecked by 2030. The south has fallen.

I have high regard and respect for patriots who decide to stay and fight. However I'm 21, and have zero intention of actually living in the country for another 12 months. This may be even worse of a move, however I have made peace with my decision.
 

scotian

Crow
Gold Member
I moved to one of the cities on OP’s list last week, Vancouver (live downtown, for now) and I think it will be fine in years to come. It’s a fairly pleasant place to live, it’s safe and there’s no-go zones don’t exist. Multiculturalism seems to work here but it’s heavy on the Chinese, Indians and other Asians. I would say that the two biggest concerns are the amount of drug addicts and expensive cost of living for regular folks. I make ok money but can only afford to buy a condo here, a house would be impossible.
 

Lionheart

Pigeon
A
Here is my best guess of what the Western Cities will look like in 5-10 years time.

Keep in mind however, that many countries are all unique and have different situations. Most of what I am describing here will be the United States, although shittier European countries like France will also be in this camp.

  • Complete lack of meaningful organization. Just getting your driver's license will be akin to getting one in Peru. Not hating on Peru, it's a great country, but America and eventually Europe will start falling into 2nd and 3rd world inefficiency. Things will take forever for little to no reason. Roads are already falling into disrepair in the city I am from (Atlanta.) Justice system will become even more ineffective. Internet will start to get spotty, expect the speeds to drop even with 5G. Loadshedding for power and water will be implemented, and already has in California. California is the future of the West, and especially America. You will no longer be living in the country your ancestors built, white man.
  • A further separation from the Haves and Have nots, as another poster alluded to earlier. The white middle class will be extinct very shortly. You will either be well off, or live in somewhat of a Favela, hood type situation. I expect South Africa style private security, gated walls and cameras for the rich neighborhoods.
  • After Texas flips blue in 2024, the United States will never again elect a Republican President or government, and not that it really matters anyway. Millions (Probably 25-30 million) illegal immigrants will be granted YOUR citizenship, and will proceed to tax out the social security, welfare, and any public services system completely. This means that they will cease to exist, and thus the entire point of even living in the United States (Social safety net and high wages) will be completely negated.
  • The lock-downs will be a permanent part of life for the retarded American slave. Most of the world, especially Tier 1 Asian countries are efficient and will be able to move forward from this pandemic, however the US will not. This year, 2020, will be remembered as the year that America never recovered. America will never be the same, that country is completely dead and gone at this point I'm afraid. Expect to be tightly controlled, and forced to take a Vaccine if you live in a large american city, want to fly on an american airline, or want to work for an american corporation.
  • Forced de-gentrification. White hipsters and the like the gentrified areas will be legally forced to move because of "white privilege" and muh oppression. This means that blacks will be given free reign to completely destroy society, which will not take them long. They've already destroyed the capital of the South, Atlanta. Expect Raleigh NC, Nashville TN to be completely wrecked by 2030. The south has fallen.

I have high regard and respect for patriots who decide to stay and fight. However I'm 21, and have zero intention of actually living in the country for another 12 months. This may be even worse of a move, however I have made peace with my decision.
All very depressing but probably true of our future.
 

Laner

Hummingbird
Gold Member
I will add to Vancouver.

- Two blocks from my home is a sea wall that rims the whole city. One of the largest urban parks in the world with world class beaches are just a quick bike ride away. Along the sea wall I pass parks, restaurants, casinos, beaches, schools, marinas, grocery stores, pubs; Essentially tiny villages at the bottoms of high quality high rises. This is the whole downtown of Vancouver.

- An automated train runs all over the metro area, with expansions constantly being built. Inter urban automated trains are back in the conversation in order to reach further out valley exurbs as young people leave the city and work from home is normalized.

- The unchecked progressives left is in its final form. A demand for a return to law and order is incoming. Vancouver and its surrounding islands and mountain communities instill fierce pride in their images. Vancouver island, the Gulf Islands, Whistler, etc are all loved and protected. We all know this place is worth protecting, and are keen to share it with more people. As long as those people learn to love and respect it as we do.

- Saying that, there is a growing anti immigration sentiment growing among residents here. Too much immigration too fast has put a lot of strain on the things we hold dear. So I expect push backs from voters here on unchecked immigration for the next 10 or 15 years. This will give people here time to catch up. Similar to the way the Cantonese from the 90's have caught up culturally, are now hollering for Mandarin immigrant quotas to be established.

- The tech companies here see Vancouver as a good place to try out urban projects. Tap and go cars and bikes. Automated taxis. Drone package delivery are all concepts that are being proven here. We have been getting rid of parking lots with little to know adverse effects. This will continue to grow and many people here will not see a need for personal cars. Teslas and electric vehicles are more common here than any city I have ever visited save Tokyo.

- Dating and relationships will continue to trend down. But already covid has shown that taking away the clubs has already calmed girls down. More polygamy is probably going to continue to rise. Clubs have moved into luxury homes, and those in that scene will experience even more of the already willing grey area prostitution, while the middle road club girls are instead staying among friends and doing more wholesome activities. Vancouver is the biggest city in Canada's west, and many high quality girls make their way here and stay. Spending less time among the degeneracy has had a positive effect to counteract the bombardments from all fronts for things like Pride, BLM, Greta, etc.

- Real estate will continue to be strong here. Perhaps not going up 5-20% a year like the past 10, but stable enough to attract buyers. Investment condo's will slowly die down as buyers see a better home rather than a shrewd investment. Buildings with great amenities will continue to be in demand as more families, work from homers, etc see their buildings as a community ( I live in one of these).

- Healthcare will be a big growth sector. St Paul's Hospital just sold their current property in Vancouver's West End for $1 billion. They are now set to break ground in my Downtown East Side neighborhood next year. Estimated project cost is over $2 billion, but the hospital will have massive research campus and a medical conference hotel. All connected to Vancouver's #1 in North America airport by way of automated train.

- Vancouver International Airport (YVR) is getting a whole new Terminal, bringing the total up to three. Already the #1 rated airport in North America for years upon end, this new expansion is set to bring YVR onto the level of Singapore. We are now in contention for best in the world. Its already a steady stream of gleaming 787's and Gulfstreams (into the VIP south terminal), expect airlines to continue to covet the top departure times at YVR.

Now for the downsides.

- Vancouver is a dumping ground for addicts. Little to no consequences for hard drug users, Vancouver continues to tear at itself with these little paper cuts. Open drug use. Needles everywhere. Tents where ever. Open camping in city parks. Violent outbursts. Garbage. Anti Social behavior. The provincial government courts are stacked with progressives who still hold the sentiment that Vancouver is still in the 90's. The progressives in city council continue to dominate, which leaves the police hamstrung.

- Detachment among immigration communities. High rates of immigration in short time frames have created ethnic enclaves. The only thing saving Vancouver from these being violent ghettos were the difficult immigration policies implemented by past governments. We were lucky to brain drain from less violent countries. But this is changing.

- Current federal government is importing untold numbers of immigrants from actual violent places. Its shadow immigration, and for the past 5 years that number is unknown. Perhaps hundreds of thousands. Perhaps more. Actual violent enclaves are starting to happen now, and will continue.

I am bullish on Vancouver. And judging by the amount of tower cranes I can see from my window, others also feel the same. Its a logical city, with cooler heads. A favorite Sunday activity here is walking in a rain forest - accessible in the center of the city - and just enjoying nature. While this might not be the most religious city, a forest and mountain cathedral does help people cool down and put perspective on life.
 
  • Wider and wider rich and poor gap (and even if you earn 250k today, you still won't be in the rich club). $1M minimum for a house, gated communities with private security, private clubs/bars/restaurants that require $$$ membership to enter
  • Higher cost of living (vast majority cannot eat out or afford cars, for example)
  • Working harder for less money, higher taxes
  • Less Churches
  • The continued mass migration of the third world (China, India, Africa each have over 1B people)
  • More speed cameras, police drones, CCTV, tracking (and maybe cashless or near cashless)
  • Higher number of homeless
  • Many no go zone or slum areas (favelas/ghettos)
  • Higher crime
  • More people on prescription meds, more divorce, more single people, lower native birth rates
  • More general despair and higher suicide rate
  • Smaller, nosier and lower quality housing
  • Poorer quality air and water
  • More degeneracy (prostitution, many all weekend long clubs, bars, sex parties - think Berlin today)
Good list. What will also disappear are middle class homes single and multi family - either ghetto or super tower with high security- Real estate developers actually LOVE this, because it leads to large swathes of property - often historic and protected becoming available for super towers. If you're a real estate developer you love super towers and hate low density housing (That's why the left is pushing it as well) .

Right about churches - Real estate developers love knocking those down too, especially the developers that hate Christianity..

so I would add:
  • super-tower gated self contained communities.
  • For the wealthy but not super wealthy who don't have full time bodyguards: a high end 'armed uber' like service with licensed private security and armored cars.
 
Something makes the ol' spidey sense tingle when im hearing about droves of people purchasing suburban/rural property on the basis of this new 'work from home revolution'. What if the elites simply flip the switch, "find" a (((cure))) for corona, then employers decide too much productivity is lost by work from home employees and force everyone to come into the office again (with forced vaccinations, LOL). What happens to all of those new suburban (inflated cost and over-leveraged) mortgage holders when they realize all the jobs are still in the major cities? home loan defaults and marched back into the agenda 21 green new deal smart city gulags?

what if the work from home revolution simply depresses wages further as your job is up for grabs to anyone with an internet connection, which means you're competing in a global labour market.... i hope you're able to take a 20% paycut and still make those payments..... im expecting to see another fleecing
 
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