What will major Western cities look like in 3-5-10+ years time?

eradicator

Peacock
Gold Member
You are 20 years early, and most of your predictions won't happen in any case. 2025 AI this, AI that, lol

Futurists are embarrassingly bad in their predictions.
i don’t think you understand how many billions Tesla, google abd uber are throwing at robot driving cars. I’m being conservative by guessing robot cars by 2025.

We have robot driving ubers on the roads right now in places like Carnegie Melon and Arizona. We have had robot driving cars on the roads for a couple of years already. Saying they will get to major cities by 2025 is not really much of a prediction
Maybe not nyc, here the pedestrians are too out of control and the robots will sit in midtown for hours waiting for the j walkers to stop or they just are not allowed
 

infowarrior1

Hummingbird
I think that major cities will basically cease to exist in their current form.

When you consider what a rich person will do, take into account that no amount of money, gated communities and private memberships can save a rich person from 1000+ strong bloodthirsty roving mobs. What we consider upped middle and upper class will simply disappear as their jobs start being slashed, their livelihoods are deconstructed piece by piece, and their nice skyscrapers and urban villas are turned into elite deathtraps.

This will inevitably result in the cities turning into giant slums filled with crime and despair, with a few upscale but still dangerous areas, while the rich will live on luxury ranches and resorts far away in the countryside, since those areas are very easy to supply and defend, and luxuries can easily be imported. Since the economy will be mostly digital by that point, they will be able to exert their influence from there just as easily.

For an example, think how Mexican drug lords live on enormous haciendas in the rural areas, with multiple layers of private security forces controlling access. This allows them to resist intrusions by even professional military forces, let alone ragtag SJW bandits.





To sum up, given the tremendous chaos and violence the western countries are headed towards, I don't see them turning into dangerous and stratified, but still stable and livable places like in South America, Africa or Asia; instead, I see something with far more inequality and physical distance between the haves and the have-nots than what we've experienced recently. Perhaps something akin to a tightly controlled feudal society.
Drug Lords are modern Feudal Lords ruling their respective territories with terror. No doubt anyone who would have a problem with them end up dead.

Therefore they effectively crush rebellion in their own territories like the terrible Lords of old.

Many of them Tyrants that hold those within their territories in submission.

Warlords who by their very existence challenge the entire Nation-State. And have already taken away territories from their respective governments.

Democracy in Mexico for example is a farce due to this reason:

What are elections if you as a Petty Warlord simply slaughter the political party that doesn't submit. Kill all members of every political party that won't get with the program.

What are elections when every viable candidate is dead.

Try holding an election in a low-trust drug cartel infested society. I guarantee that said democracy will be very bloody with the deaths of people of every respective political party. Or that voters will be intimidated to vote a certain way or they also die.

If candidates are against one faction or another they die anyway. If they try to remain neutral they are likewise killed.

Try imagining a US or Australian election. But this time Liberals, Labor and Republicans get outright killed in key districts by local drug Lords leaving no one to elect.
 
Last edited:

Easy_C

Crow
i don’t think you understand how many billions Tesla, google abd uber are throwing at robot driving cars. I’m being conservative by guessing robot cars by 2025.
I don’t think so l. Even in a good economic climate it takes a few years to ramp up the infrastructure for this kind of thing. And that’s IF you have a fast, agile, company in a stable geopolitical situation. Among auto manufacturers that’s only Tesla and the others are massive, slogging bureaucies(I worked on a consulting engagement at one. They’re almost government bad and are still using a tech back-end from the 70s). Even if everything keeps going perfectly (it’s not) it would be 2025 when you see the mass production and distribution capability come online. It would take some time past that for market penetration.
 

Hypno

Crow
I think that even if the elites lighten up on the whole covid-19 thing the toothpaste is out of the tube when it comes to remote working. I could have told you that most jobs were remote worthy years ago, but, sometimes these disruptions need a catalyst of sorts to get going. Enter Covid-19. I do believe there is something to having your people in one place in order to manage and supervise them, but, that argument rings a bit arcane and will never hold a candle to the counter argument of all the money saved from not renting very expensive CBD real estate. For instance, Boston and New York...the prices are staggering and landlords demand and get long term lease commitments. A CFO from a few years ago would wet himself if he could cut out a line item as big and juicy as rent. Plus you'll have top talent start to ask for this and all the job postings I've seen lately have been either remote only or remote option.

No one likes to commute, although I do hear it sometimes. Indeed, getting out of the house matters and is appealing to many, but, making the argument that commuting is fun sounds like some brainwashed feminista talking smack about how she's a workaholic and loves working on the weekends. Its all bull. People are lazy, especially the feminists types.

For this reason, I see the central business district in a sharp secular decline. Major changes are coming as a result of that. One thing is the dispersions of population to the suburbs. And that means their politics too, so, this is not all that good. Cities will decay as a result. Without industry, places like New York will become hellish and likely worse that they were in the 70s. Because even in the 70s you had Wall Street to carry the water. Not so going forward. And maybe Goldman and Morgan never actually leave the city. So long as most of a large percentage of their staff are remote the effect will be the same. Millions of people commute into the city and pay for parking, hot dogs, cocktails and steak dinners. Not so much any longer.
I complete agree. James Altucher wrote an essay "New York is Dead" about a month ago that elaborates on your points. He received a lot of criticism from "New Yorkers," including Jerry Seinfeld, but none of his critics still live in NYC (Seinfeld lives out in the Hamptons, lol).

A couple of other factors:
- increased bandwith the last few years makes this all possible.
- workers don't want to commute, let alone bathe.
- workers don't want to live in high cost areas just to have a high pay job.
- big companies have figured out that they can pay less to a high pay worker who is working from Austin than working in person in New York or San Fran. Next, they'll figure out that they don't need H1-B visas, they'll just employ people overseas without making them immigrate.
 

Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
In the near future 5G/6G wireless unlimited wireless broadband or next unlimited wireless bandwidth low earth orbit satellites will drastically impact remote work patterns and real estate values. Desirable so called Vacation home communities like Lake and Ocean vacation areas will boom as more people are enabled to live there full time enabled via technology. I believe the 100% robotic trucks tech cos underestimate the power of Dem affiliated Unions to impact their rosy scenario biz and tech adoption forecasts... Truckers and Teamsters can bring Cities to their knees in a few days of strikes when no food is available at markets or restaurants. When set ablaze by angry Unions trucks and cargo and either diesel or battery banks burn in spectacular fashion.
So I see AI more like auto pilot in planes than a 100% replacement of human drivers.

In the very near future I expect severe civil unrest when on October 31st eviction and foreclosure moratoriums end. The Governor Charlie Milquetoast Baker of Massachusetts who stood down the National Guard during the May BLM organized looting and arson riots the devastated the high end retail business streets and who has now announced Eviction and Foreclosure moratoriums in Boston and the State of MA will end October 31st. The banks and landlords are clearly ready to challenge in courts their 10 Months of no rents or mortgages income.

Now that Trump has recovered from Covid so quickly and even the WHO strongly urging no more draconian lockdowns the Banks, REITS, and PE Corporations boards and stakeholders are no longer willing to absorb losses now that team Pelosi Mafiosi refuses to approve a further Federal funding of Covid-19 relief to hurt Trump's reelection chances. The backlash among those desperate for housing likely to trigger the full range of violent Socialist BLM Antifa civil unrest.
 
Last edited:
I wonder if this Schwab character came up with this sophisticated reset idea on his own, or merely wrote down what he knew his masters wanted to hear. I also don't see perma-WFH arrangements because there's definitely a huge productivity loss that companies will feel (and are probably actively trying to measure right now). The major problem is the (((central banks)))/ governments active intervening role in the economy, It's just a giant casino wheel where the demigods decide which corpo lives and which doesn't. Who's essential and who isn't. what a mess of shit
 

Dr Mantis Toboggan

Kingfisher
Gold Member
I wonder if this Schwab character came up with this sophisticated reset idea on his own, or merely wrote down what he knew his masters wanted to hear. I also don't see perma-WFH arrangements because there's definitely a huge productivity loss that companies will feel (and are probably actively trying to measure right now). The major problem is the (((central banks)))/ governments active intervening role in the economy, It's just a giant casino wheel where the demigods decide which corpo lives and which doesn't. Who's essential and who isn't. what a mess of shit
Not sure, I'm a desk jockey at a major globohomo company and definitely more productive working from home than I was in the office, mainly because I don't have people bugging me with nonsense every 10 minutes (at least not in person). My bet is a lot of companies will go to a hybrid model where people come in to the office 1-3 days a week and WFH the rest of the time.
 
Not sure, I'm a desk jockey at a major globohomo company and definitely more productive working from home than I was in the office, mainly because I don't have people bugging me with nonsense every 10 minutes (at least not in person). My bet is a lot of companies will go to a hybrid model where people come in to the office 1-3 days a week and WFH the rest of the time.
Better hope that in-person work will be required otherwise you're competing against a global workforce if WFH is here to stay....
 

Alpone

Woodpecker
I'm still bullish on major western cities. People have lived in cities for 1000s of years. They're not going away. Even if more jobs go remote, people still want to be near other people for social life, arts, culture, dating, etc. There's also the issue of household sizes becoming smaller and fewer people getting married and having kids. And even when couples have kids, they're having far less of them than their parents and grandparents. Do you really need a big house in the suburbs with a giant front lawn just for 2 people? I know a few people in that living situation and they say the cons outweight the pros.

Crime will probably increase in U.S. cities, but European cities like London always seemed to have higher crime rates than the U.S. due to lower incarceration rates. But London didn't collapse because of it. Just like random knife attacks have been pretty common in London for decades, there's going to be more random violence even in good parts of U.S. cities. It's a calculated risk one will need to take based on your lifestyle choices.

As far as antifa-BLM riots, these have political ends and aren't that grassroots and spontaneous. The powers that be *let* them happen when they need to happen to serve a political purpose. If that political purpose should dry up because of how the election plays out, you may see the end of riots for the foreseeable future.
 

Blade Runner

Kingfisher
As far as antifa-BLM riots, these have political ends and aren't that grassroots and spontaneous. The powers that be *let* them happen when they need to happen to serve a political purpose. If that political purpose should dry up because of how the election plays out, you may see the end of riots for the foreseeable future.
The more I researched and thought about this, it is absolutely the case and it is impossible to predict to what extent they return, or if they do at all. It was an interesting revelation (most of it turns out to be ruining areas to be able to pick real estate up on the cheap in the coming 5-10 years). You are spot on.
 
i don’t think you understand how many billions Tesla, google abd uber are throwing at robot driving cars. I’m being conservative by guessing robot cars by 2025.

We have robot driving ubers on the roads right now in places like Carnegie Melon and Arizona. We have had robot driving cars on the roads for a couple of years already. Saying they will get to major cities by 2025 is not really much of a prediction
Maybe not nyc, here the pedestrians are too out of control and the robots will sit in midtown for hours waiting for the j walkers to stop or they just are not allowed
Multi billion dollar companies can’t even get machines in geo fenced areas to complete tasks reliably and you think there will be a wave of automated cars by 2025. Yeah no...

you sound like one of the people in the 1930s that thought we would be driving flying cars by now. Is it possible, probably. Is it financially feasible no... there isn’t enough money in it and culture hasn’t caught up, maybe when the boomers die off.
 

eradicator

Peacock
Gold Member
Multi billion dollar companies can’t even get machines in geo fenced areas to complete tasks reliably and you think there will be a wave of automated cars by 2025. Yeah no...

you sound like one of the people in the 1930s that thought we would be driving flying cars by now. Is it possible, probably. Is it financially feasible no... there isn’t enough money in it and culture hasn’t caught up, maybe when the boomers die off.
Funny, we do have flying cars..,

 

TheMaleBrain

Kingfisher
Gold Member
Here is my prediction, and I'm in Smart Cities business:
1. Short term 3-5 years
More surveillance and attempts to reduce operational expenses. This will be in the form of adopting sensor-computer models to enhance performances.
Example - trying to predict garbage removal from homes by way of using both past data and sensors on the bins.
Most likely will be focused on traffic and cleaning.
Sensors will be mostly based on 5G (where deployment exists) or incumbent network (either by municipality or cooperation with operators).

2. Longer term - 10 years
Way more sensors and software to manage day to day operations.
5G as the basis for sensor connectivity.

However
One must consider the "Diffusion of innovation"- meaning that not everyone adopts it at once:


So there will be several municipalities taking it on "big time"(those will be the innovators and early adopters), yet there will be others that because of lack of funding or plain "Let's wait and see" attitude (Late majority and Conscientious Rejectors) will not to a damn thing (and sometimes for good reasons).

Can't say much about "Civil Unrest", but from my point of view it is here for the next few years.
 
Top