What will major Western cities look like in 3-5-10+ years time?

jordypip23

Ostrich
Gold Member
Not an expert on the subject by any means, but I believe theres a huge exodus of youtube creators etc. because of the new tax proposals by california and knowing california they will probably pass, so they figured better leave before the calendar year date so that they are completely off the hook for those new taxes.

Graham Stephan (30 year old real estate agent and investor from YouTube) just moved outta LA to the Las Vegas area in a similar fashion.
 

Hypno

Crow
SpaceX's (Elon Musk company) Starlink broadband internet service may be a game changer. For a little over 100 watts of power and $99 a monthy, it can deliver internet to off grid locations. Internet speeds are sufficient for a Zoom call. Think about that - you could work or run your business from anywhere on the planet with a line of sight to the sky.

 

Laner

Hummingbird
Gold Member
Good cities will always be in demand, but poorly run cities will become traps.

I know most people do not really understand just how shitty the internet can be in smaller, rural areas of north America. But it can be pretty shocking, especially coming from a pretty high tech city like Vancouver.

All those top 20 cities will be fine. In fact I feel they will thrive. I would even say the top 50 - 100 will do better in the coming decades. Allowing for some fluidity up and down that list as cities double down on wokeness, but expect a lot of investment into sane cities. The hivemind of advancement just does not work yet through a place like fucking zoom.

Zoom offices might be just enough to keep the lights on, but its certainly not enough to keep us moving forward.
 

NoMoreTO

Ostrich
Mass migration will destabilize large cities. The multi ethnic environment will make them hotbeds for crime and civil unrest.

Real Estate will still likely go up, but not as much as the burbs and the country. It will be just because of the sheer population influx.

I've noticed immigrants taking a liking to 2nd tier cities recently.
 

Laner

Hummingbird
Gold Member
My internet out here hits a faster download speed than it did in my NYC borogh.

Yeah the upgrades in rural communities can feel better than cities when they do happen. Less stress on the lines I guess.

I live a block from some pretty big gaming labs and two blocks from an Amazon web HQ and when everyone is at home and mouth breathing through some netflix garbage I notice the internet is not the greatest. But hey! For an extra $135 a month we can fix that for you!
 

NoMoreTO

Ostrich
Here's a list of 100 American cities with the most people currently in financial distress. These are the places that will collapse first.

https://wallethub.com/edu/cities-financial-distress/79863

The top ten are:
  1. Las Vegas
  2. Chicago
  3. Houston
  4. San Antonio
  5. Dallas
  6. Phoenix
  7. Los Angeles
  8. Austin, TX
  9. Miami
  10. Fort Worth

I don't see how Texas could be in the worst position. 5/10 top cities are in texas. The real estate there is relatively cheap from what I remember, so their loans should be more manageable. And their homes are homes, not condos.

Maybe I'm missing something...
 

username

Ostrich
Gold Member
Maybe I'm missing something...
Their methodology..
1) Credit Score, 2) People with Accounts in Distress, 3) Average Number of Accounts in Distress, 4) Change in Number of Bankruptcy Filings - June 2020 vs. June 2019, 5) “Debt” Search Interest Index and 6) “Loans” Search Interest Index.
The loan search is flawed, I know many people who searched for home loans to refi with the lower rates.
 
I live in Canada eh, so this is my take on it.

  1. Toronto: Has been on the decline in years. How to they mask this decline? By throwing up a plethora of overpriced built like crap (Unless it's Tridel) condos and then have some lame slogan attached to them "Work to live not live to work". Crime has been on the increase with shootings and stabbings and the police are to afraid of being "racist". The mayor is a joke and a fraud and champions idiotic behaviour or a monthly if not more basis. Immigrants. . . They are everywhere and the sad part is majority bring nothing to the table, just cheap labour sheep who can barely converse in English. It's sad to see the decline of white coloured people in the city and the suburbs, places like Mississauga, Brampton, Scarborough, Richmond Hill, Markham and soon to be Vaughan have been overtaken by "diversity". No I'm not racist, I'm brown (lightest shade possible lol) and was born to a Indian family. What made this city (Toronto) great is long gone. Housing is not affordable, things are overpriced, lack of sophistication and the list goes on. Future? More un affordable housing, higher immigration with nothing to show, more crime, more dirt and grime and more politically correct b.s.
  2. Vancouver: Oh man and you thought Toronto was overpriced. At least you get mountains and some beautiful scenery when you buy that crap shack for 1.2 million. "Safe" injection centers are rising in numbers and it's already visible that the Chinese and Indians are increasing their "territories" outside of Richmond Hill and Surrey. Highways will not be able to withstand population growth to come that's for sure. The NDP government has and will continue to destroy this province. Gangs here are a bit more, how do I say, "agile" because of the port that's here and can distribute guns and drugs much quicker.
  3. Calgary: Trudeau has raped this city, let alone province. Loss of jobs = increase in poverty. This city will be hit hard in the future to come unless they can make a shift from oil into something else. If I were them I would empasizr being the next tax haven for corps and big tech, they can do it but they need to do it right.
  4. Montreal: I have a soft spot for this city. Great party scene and night life which have been decimated due to the plandemic. There is a sizeable muslim arab pop there but they seem much more lax than your average Muslim Arabs say in Toronto and or Calgary. Not sure why, something must be in the St.Laurent River or it's the fact Quebec doesn't take no b.s from minorities. Immigration will increase here since things are more affordable compared to Toronto and Vancouver. However the infrastructure is pretty poor here, roads specifically. However, with the low quality of immigration occurring here, expect to see crime increases and so forth. Also, gang activity is present here as well, more so due to also having access to a port.
 

FullThrottleTX

Woodpecker
I don't see how Texas could be in the worst position. 5/10 top cities are in texas. The real estate there is relatively cheap from what I remember, so their loans should be more manageable. And their homes are homes, not condos.

Maybe I'm missing something...

Texas cities are not representative of Texas as a whole.
We're largely a suburban state and that's where a lot of the jobs are. When you look at relocations, the North Dallas burbs are at the top of the list, Frisco in particular. Austin burbs too, which are getting a lot of Californians.

Houston is genuinely not doing well due to the oil glut though.

Texas in general has a bright future.
I'd worry more about New York State or California.
 

Pendleton

Pelican
Here's a list of 100 American cities with the most people currently in financial distress. These are the places that will collapse first.

https://wallethub.com/edu/cities-financial-distress/79863

The top ten are:
  1. Las Vegas - 47% white
  2. Chicago - 31% white
  3. Houston - 25% white
  4. San Antonio - 26% white
  5. Dallas - 29% white
  6. Phoenix - 46% white
  7. Los Angeles - 29% white
  8. Austin, TX - 49% white
  9. Miami - 12% white
  10. Fort Worth - 42% white

And the above numbers are 10 years old. The future of these cities is whatever future is produced by the combination of a 3rd world population and authoritarian hard left governments. Those expecting continued first world amenities, finances, etc. are likely to be disappointed.
 

Handsome Creepy Eel

Owl
Gold Member
Here's a list of 100 American cities with the most people currently in financial distress. These are the places that will collapse first.

https://wallethub.com/edu/cities-financial-distress/79863

The top ten are:
  1. Las Vegas
  2. Chicago
  3. Houston
  4. San Antonio
  5. Dallas
  6. Phoenix
  7. Los Angeles
  8. Austin, TX
  9. Miami
  10. Fort Worth

How is it possible that this list doesn't include the chronic clusterf***s like Baltimore, Chicago, San Francisco, New York, etc.?
 

Garuda

Kingfisher
Baltimore is #40, San Fran is #83 and NYC is #12.

I don't see how Texas could be in the worst position. 5/10 top cities are in texas. The real estate there is relatively cheap from what I remember, so their loans should be more manageable. And their homes are homes, not condos.

Maybe I'm missing something...
It's probably due to the large increase in unemployment among the urban Hispanic population as the travel and hospitality industry continues to shrink due to covid.
 

Foolsgo1d

Peacock
You couldn't predict what a town or city will look like 5 years from now let alone 10. Immigration has accelerated in the past 5-10 years and add in the next generation of migrant children on top. You have a large % of the young being completely alien to the hosts culture and filled with anger towards it.

Now mix in the rapid economic decline which will stay with us for many years and the overall decline in mental well being of the populace and you have a potent mixture for not just civic decline but urban decay.

The broken window syndrome will be on steroids.

As this decline consumes the major cities those with the economic ability (for now) will move. London and the South has seen a lot of movement North, especially to the Manchester area where property prices are ballooning.

The crime will follow.
 

Nada

Chicken
If we take the gloomer view here, what do you think major Western cities look like in 3-5-10+ years time? (if a major economic collapse takes place)

I'm talking about LA, NYC, Sydney, Melbourne, London, Paris, Rome, Berlin, Madrid, Vancouver, Auckland, Stockholm, etc.

My best guess. We can already predict some things as some of these cities are more advanced than others. I'm expecting some combination of the following (and at varying levels of intensity):
  • Wider and wider rich and poor gap (and even if you earn 250k today, you still won't be in the rich club). $1M minimum for a house, gated communities with private security, private clubs/bars/restaurants that require $$$ membership to enter
  • Higher cost of living (vast majority cannot eat out or afford cars, for example)
  • Working harder for less money, higher taxes
  • Less Churches
  • The continued mass migration of the third world (China, India, Africa each have over 1B people)
  • More speed cameras, police drones, CCTV, tracking (and maybe cashless or near cashless)
  • Higher number of homeless
  • Many no go zone or slum areas (favelas/ghettos)
  • Higher crime
  • More people on prescription meds, more divorce, more single people, lower native birth rates
  • More general despair and higher suicide rate
  • Smaller, nosier and lower quality housing
  • Poorer quality air and water
  • More degeneracy (prostitution, many all weekend long clubs, bars, sex parties - think Berlin today)

Would they resemble something like a Sao Paulo or Johannesburg? As in livable (you'd stay if you had family) but you wouldn't choose to move there.

And further to that, would our secondary cities, regional and rural areas be a big steps down from that, only trailing behind by 10+ years or so?

Mainly interested to know if people think this will happen, how long it might take and are the less populated areas somewhat sheltered or not.
"$250K?" What's that? The fiat currency will have already failed. Might as well call it, "Quatloos." If you don't have items or a skill to barter or at least some gold and silver, you're coming out the other side a poor bastard.
 

Jack Bauer

Sparrow
I think you are going to see white flight and brain drain from large cities. Its already starting to happen, and is a trend that will acclerate.

Personally I will probably move to a gated community in the exurbs. My job is 99% remote these days so living further away makes sense from a value perspective - no reason to pay up for higher priced, cramped real estate close to the city center. Not in the U.S. anyway with cars and roads.
Keep in mind, the average gated community is one Trayvon lawsuit away from financial trouble. Making an HOA the centerpiece of one's planning is probably not a good idea.

I too believe that, win or lose this time around, Trump is the last Republican president. I've brought up this idea around normies several times and they're invariably shocked and incredulous. They have not the slightest clue how many immigrants we take in yearly, or how those immigrants vote once they're granted citizenship.

Then again, these are people who think everything will be back normal soon, probably sometime next year.
People told us Bush 43 would be the last GOP president after Obama won. The GOP is pure trash and not worth caring about in its current form, but there's a big difference between "last Republican" and "last non-Dem." Trump might be the former but he's definitely not the latter.

Good cities will always be in demand, but poorly run cities will become traps.

I know most people do not really understand just how shitty the internet can be in smaller, rural areas of north America. But it can be pretty shocking, especially coming from a pretty high tech city like Vancouver.

All those top 20 cities will be fine. In fact I feel they will thrive. I would even say the top 50 - 100 will do better in the coming decades. Allowing for some fluidity up and down that list as cities double down on wokeness, but expect a lot of investment into sane cities. The hivemind of advancement just does not work yet through a place like fucking zoom.

Zoom offices might be just enough to keep the lights on, but its certainly not enough to keep us moving forward.
This is incredibly optimistic given current demographic trends, unless 50 of those 100 cities are in Texas and Florida.
 

Hypno

Crow
Keep in mind, the average gated community is one Trayvon lawsuit away from financial trouble. Making an HOA the centerpiece of one's planning is probably not a good idea.

No one said I was outsourcing my security to a HOA. And Trayvon was shot in a "gated community" of 1400 sft townhouses.

George Zimmerman moved to the community in 2009. At that time, the United States was experiencing the Great Recession. This caused a "demographic transformation" of the gated community, where 1,400-square-foot (130 m²) townhouses had once sold on average for $250,000. However, by February 2012, that value "...had fallen below $100,000." With the change came a "spate of burglaries" which were largely due to the "...large-scale foreclosures in the wake of the housing crash led investors to rent, rather than sell, the spaces, which brought a new, transient type of resident."
 

Jack Bauer

Sparrow
No one said I was outsourcing my security to a HOA. And Trayvon was shot in a "gated community" of 1400 sft townhouses.

George Zimmerman moved to the community in 2009. At that time, the United States was experiencing the Great Recession. This caused a "demographic transformation" of the gated community, where 1,400-square-foot (130 m²) townhouses had once sold on average for $250,000. However, by February 2012, that value "...had fallen below $100,000." With the change came a "spate of burglaries" which were largely due to the "...large-scale foreclosures in the wake of the housing crash led investors to rent, rather than sell, the spaces, which brought a new, transient type of resident."
My comment was just a general reminder.

I don't see how the size of the homes matters. If anything, gated communities with bigger homes would be bigger targets if the crap hits the fan.
 

Hypno

Crow
My comment was just a general reminder.

I don't see how the size of the homes matters. If anything, gated communities with bigger homes would be bigger targets if the crap hits the fan.
You would think so but it turns out that there is less crime in neighborhoods with expensive homes. And they are less accessible to the people who fling crap at fans
 
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