White Russia (Belarus) 2020 elections

Mr Freedom

Sparrow
these protests need to be looked at from the geopolitical view:

B

The picture above is of the Suwalki Gap or corridor. It's the only land connection that Belarus/Russia has with the enclave of Kaliningrad. Coincidentally it's also the only land corridor between the Independent Baltic states and Poland.

There have been rumours in the past that Putin has planned to use Belarus or "little green men/unknown forces" to invade the Suwalki Gap and then have the Russian Armed forces move in as "peacekeepers" to secure the area when the fighting is over and a political agreement is made between the US/EU/NATO & Russia/Belarus on the other side over this region.

Whilst the idea of Russia invading a NATO member like Lithuania may sound unlikely and bordering on the insane when you take into account the famous Article 5 I personally would not count it out. Russian backed forces could easily take the Lithuanian side of the Suwalki gap in a 24 hour period (assuming that forces from both the Belarus and Kaliningrad are used backed up by air power and long range artillery/missiles)

I don't think European Nations would stomach a potential conflict with Russia over a small strip of land in Lithuania. Poland would be another story entirely but all eyes point to the Russians/Putin trying to secure this corridor in Lithuania itself. Lithuania has also a much smaller/weaker armed forces than Poland and would require massive assistance from other NATO member states in order to defend its territory. Again in this current climate with President Donald Trump unlikely to intervene and with negative public sentiment towards liberal governments in Western European countries it would be hard to justify a potential WW3 over a 20km wide corridor in the Baltics.

why is this important? Well today it was reported that Belarus scrambled Mi-24 Hind attack helicopters against Baloons launched from Lithuania. Could Lukashenko use these protests as a Cassius belli to declare war? This area is of great geo-strategic importance for Both Russia and the Independent Baltic states. However for Russia it serves two purposes - a physical connection with Kaliningrad and blocking off the Baltic states from the outside world via land, who have been a thorn in Russia's side ever since they joined NATO.
 
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barrythecyborg

Woodpecker
"Russia has it's SVR intelligence plants in the protests..."

And for sure theres some foreign agents behind them.

I saw a small baloclavered group, in all black flying a black flag at the protest too.

Hmmm...

But an RP guy here said;

"I'll tell you what I know... if Russia or Belarus allow rats in their country, it's so they can fuck them in the arse"

Someone else (who I'd listen to) backed that up, and warned a friend not to get too involved.
 
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gework

Ostrich
Gold Member
I am staying about 100 meters from the protest route. I wasn't sure what it was all about as my only reference to it was seeing this thread title.












I didnt want to take too many and get caught as a limey interfering in internal affairs.

When I went out to see what was going on there were about 20 guys in balaclavas shifting around. They looked like ultras - right-wing football firm and appeared to be hoping tyey could pull in one of the red and white people to give them a beating.

The military police look very intimidating. They all look like 6 ft 3 in supersoldiers. The Orange Man could do with some of these.

But seems like the Western powers can't complain too much about the situation. There was a very large and loud but peaceful protest that was allowed to go ahead unhindered. Compare that to the months of animals rioting in The US and UK, leading to billions in property damage and 100s of lives lost directly and indirectly.

 
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barrythecyborg

Woodpecker
I haven't been able to use the internet all day, until now.

That happened for a couple of days after the election, then the 'Lockdown Festival' kicked off.

Coupled with the fact that an espionage connected friend warned that protest organisers were being snatched from their beds, and Lukashenko's warriors were on the streets today, looks like the authorities are back in control, maybe...
 

barrythecyborg

Woodpecker
Crazy... so we have the grim reaper on the streets in Minsk, protesting against the army, with the army on the streets in Victoria holding down the people to pave the way for...
 
these protests need to be looked at from the geopolitical view:

B

The picture above is of the Suwalki Gap or corridor. It's the only land connection that Belarus/Russia has with the enclave of Kaliningrad. Coincidentally it's also the only land corridor between the Independent Baltic states and Poland.

There have been rumours in the past that Putin has planned to use Belarus or "little green men/unknown forces" to invade the Suwalki Gap and then have the Russian Armed forces move in as "peacekeepers" to secure the area when the fighting is over and a political agreement is made between the US/EU/NATO & Russia/Belarus on the other side over this region.

Whilst the idea of Russia invading a NATO member like Lithuania may sound unlikely and bordering on the insane when you take into account the famous Article 5 I personally would not count it out. Russian backed forces could easily take the Lithuanian side of the Suwalki gap in a 24 hour period (assuming that forces from both the Belarus and Kaliningrad are used backed up by air power and long range artillery/missiles)

I don't think European Nations would stomach a potential conflict with Russia over a small strip of land in Lithuania. Poland would be another story entirely but all eyes point to the Russians/Putin trying to secure this corridor in Lithuania itself. Lithuania has also a much smaller/weaker armed forces than Poland and would require massive assistance from other NATO member states in order to defend its territory. Again in this current climate with President Donald Trump unlikely to intervene and with negative public sentiment towards liberal governments in Western European countries it would be hard to justify a potential WW3 over a 20km wide corridor in the Baltics.

why is this important? Well today it was reported that Belarus scrambled Mi-24 Hind attack helicopters against Baloons launched from Lithuania. Could Lukashenko use these protests as a Cassius belli to declare war? This area is of great geo-strategic importance for Both Russia and the Independent Baltic states. However for Russia it serves two purposes - a physical connection with Kaliningrad and blocking off the Baltic states from the outside world via land, who have been a thorn in Russia's side ever since they joined NATO.
Very interesting , but there is absolutely no interest for Russia to control the Suwalki gap.
This would mean : War vs lithuania , the baltic states moving in , and the EU condemning.
With Nord Stream 2 going directly to Germany , and the fleet in Kaliningrad , i don't see why Russia would need the Suwalki gap.
A more intelligent approach would be to give to Russia cities populated by Russians , such as Narva in Estonia.
The same logic could be applied to the Balkans with Ulcinj given to Albania (in Montenegro) and many other examples.
The borders of Europe have to start being more ethnic , so that we can handle no war policy with hard diplomacy nation alongside nation.
 

NoFunInAus

Sparrow
How interesting all this is "happening" just before the gruelling Belarussian winter, so these "protesters" have a lot more chance against the "evil" authorities, all the while all the madness in the USA is unfolding and Australia is in lockdown. The "cases" in Belarus must be going out of control! The protests will solve themselves as they will all fall over and die from this killer virus right?

Also'; the squealing of the women in those Belarussian clips remind me of the SJW's in the USA clips; no difference.

The happenings are on another level now.
 

gework

Ostrich
Gold Member
Another large protest today; and seemingly interference with the internet. A large loud protest movement is cordoned onto a route though the center. People and police/military are relaxed.

There was a smaller protest yesterday. It seemed to be 100% women, mostly looked like students. They induce people going past in cars to honk for their cause. The honking miraculously stopped when these two started waving their banner:



A little video: https://streamable.com/aegjo4
 

La Águila Negra

Kingfisher
Power projection



High profile opposition leaders are being targeted now




 

barrythecyborg

Woodpecker
Power projection



High profile opposition leaders are being targeted now




I don't get that last post/footage with Maria Kolesnikova...

They mean she's supposedly fled to Ukraine, or she was kidnapped?
 

barrythecyborg

Woodpecker
So the EC passed some bullshit resolution, and declared they won't recognize Luka after October...

But it's down to independent European nation states to choose to follow that or not...

And Belarus isn't an EC state anyway, so they can worship President MILf all they want and go fuck themselves because Luka's got the protests under control AND Russia in his corner.

I'm not a diplomat, but that's about it, right?
 
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