Who do you think will win the 2020 US Election?

Who will win the 2020 US Election

  • Trump

    Votes: 223 84.5%
  • Biden

    Votes: 41 15.5%

  • Total voters
    264

Pendleton

Kingfisher
Looking at the poll averages on RealClearPolitics, Trump is at 259 if he wins every state where he is currently ahead or where Biden leads him but is within the margin of error. He needs either Michigan or Pennsylvania to get to 270.

The national polls would be meaningless even if they weren't fraudulent. Hillary beat Trump in the popular vote by 2.5% and lost in a landslide in the Electoral College. We added 7-8 million migrants who will be voting for Biden but they are mainly in blue states he would have won anyway. If you factor in the margin of error, Biden could easily poll up 5-7% and just equal Hillary's performance. And that would be a poll that isn't obviously fraudulent.
 

Hell_Is_Like_Newark

Kingfisher
Gold Member
My $0.02 worth:

The feeling I have for Biden is the same I had for Romney when he ran against Obama and for Bob Dole when he ran against Clinton: In both cases, the conventional wisdom was the incumbents were hated and were going to lose badly at the polls.

I live in a Deep Blue area. When Obama was running for re-election you would think he was being deified given the amount of pro-Obama stuff plastered all over cars, homes, apartments, etc. This wasn't campaign people posting this stuff.. it was supporters posting this stuff on their own. When I went to the polls, the turn out was huge (and not for Romney). Similar observations when Bob Dole ran.

Romney and Dole both ran on a platform of "I am not the other guy", depending on an anti Obama and Clinton vote respectively. Neither candidate gave a reason to vote FOR them. Reasons that would motivate Joe average to get off his ass and go to the polls to vote again. in 2016 Trump gave reasons: border enforcement, trade, and policies that would raise people wages. First item has been implemented far from perfect, but the last item, until Chinese Bat AIDS hit, was happening.

Biden (in reality Harris because Biden isn't going to make it all four years mentally), is running on an "Orange Man Bad" platform.. the anti-Trump. Can anyone point out a clear message that Biden is running on to get Joe average to get out and vote for him instead of against Trump?

Outside of non-Orthodox Jews (I am in NYC metro area.. so heavy concentration here), old hippies, and your blue-hair highlighted SJW fat loser, there really isn't anger towards Trump. From what I can see, Blacks, Hispanic (in particular the non-Mestizo variety), really don't have an issue with the guy and some even openly support him. My wife would tell you the Thais living in the US (citizens who vote) love the guy due to the wage increases pre WuFlu.

When I walk around my area, I see only one.. ONE.. Biden-Harris sign and an occasional bumper sticker. Is my area going to vote Red? Hell no.. but from what I see, I just don't see the Obama supporters heading to the polls in great numbers. Who knows, Trump may even pick up 15% or more of the Black vote. Bottom line.. I see far less enthusiasm here for Biden that I did for Hillary in 2016.

Now compare this to the enthusiasm for Trump. Even the Amish are having Trump parades! When did that group get political about anything?

Based on my observations, Trump will face two hurdles:
1. Voter fraud
2. Losing the Senate as voters pull the D level down ballot.

If Trump loses the Senate, I am convinced RINOs will partner with Dems to remove Trump from office either via the 25th Amendment or having the House impeach him again. Doesn't matter the charge.. at this point the Left is so bold and without restraint, they would impeach Trump for jay walking at this point.

If this happens.. I think we will descend into Civil War. Not like the last one with State sponsored armies, but something more on the order that happened in Venezuela, French Revolution reign of terror, Bolshevik takeover of Russia, and Communist & Nazi terror waves Weimar Republic of Germany.
 

Blade Runner

Kingfisher
Looking at the poll averages on RealClearPolitics, Trump is at 259 if he wins every state where he is currently ahead or where Biden leads him but is within the margin of error. He needs either Michigan or Pennsylvania to get to 270.

The national polls would be meaningless even if they weren't fraudulent. Hillary beat Trump in the popular vote by 2.5% and lost in a landslide in the Electoral College. We added 7-8 million migrants who will be voting for Biden but they are mainly in blue states he would have won anyway. If you factor in the margin of error, Biden could easily poll up 5-7% and just equal Hillary's performance. And that would be a poll that isn't obviously fraudulent.

Do you think he will not flip NV, MN, or NH?
 

Blade Runner

Kingfisher
I'm going to take a stab right now at the electoral college map. Here we go:



I couldn't easily choose between PA or MI this time so I guessed Michigan would flip. I could see a broader sweep; maybe I'll also post the election scenario where Trump still wins, but it's really really close. That would also be an interesting map (if for example he got 270 exactly, lol).
 

jarlo

Robin
I expect Biden to win. I don't think it's as lopsided as the polls are making it out to be, but Biden is still a favorite.

This prediction market is giving Biden a 2/3 chance, and Trump a 1/3 chance.

However, I don't expect Biden to be president for long. Democrats are pushing a new bill which would allow a task force along with the vice president to decide whether a president is no longer fit to serve. We'll probably have President Harris within a year.

 
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