People's Pundit (Epoch Times Pollster) always provides excellent analysis.
He breaks down how polling actually works and what factors matter in a poll. He is predicting a Trump win.
The problem is that even states which most of us would think us as strongly conservative - e.g. Texas and Georgia - are at risk. Last election black people wouldn't come out to vote, because everyone loathes Hilary Clinton and there wasn't a sufficiently concerted media effort to label Trump a racist. Now, we've had the combination of the China flu, BLM, and the media whipping black people into a frenzy in which Trump is some Neo-Nazi white supremacist, and Biden has a sufficiently unobjectionable personality that they'll vote for him.From the above tie map, if Trump wins WI/NC/FL, it seems like he can't lose. And I think he will win those states, or a state just like WI (MI or PA) which makes the win pretty foreseeable. Especially since WI is much smaller with only 10 EC voters.
This is the first election I can remember where both candidates seem to be running solely on they aren't the other guy, not on their plans. Biden is definitely the "Orange Man Bad" platform and not much else. But same with Trump. What has he said he'll do if re-elected? He has mentioned law and order (a good issue), but since he's already president, why not solve the law and order problem now instead of waiting to be re-elected?Biden (in reality Harris because Biden isn't going to make it all four years mentally), is running on an "Orange Man Bad" platform.. the anti-Trump. Can anyone point out a clear message that Biden is running on to get Joe average to get out and vote for him instead of against Trump?
This shows people are really interested in the election and voting this time. I think in 2016, many people were apathetic or just felt the result was pre-ordained and sat it out.As of Wednesday, 9,908,777 people are registered to vote in Pennsylvania: 4,175,532 Democrats, 3,459,627 Republicans, and 875,191 of other parties or no affiliation. Boockvar said nearly 2.5 million people have already requested mail-in ballots, the overwhelming majority of those requests coming from Democrats. By Wednesday, 1,628,401 Democrats had requested ballots, compared with 600,487 Republicans and 259,480 voters of other parties.
This time around, I think many more people will be looking at another Trump term as breathing room and time to make themselves more self-sufficient rather than the start of a movement to take back the country. In 2016 many projected their unrealistic hopes on to Trump and became complacent.I've been saying to people to not get overconfident. These four years were a delay we weren't expecting, and I admit I got complacent and didn't do enough to better myself during this time just in case he got removed from office, killed, whatever. I'm out of shape and still carrying a lot of debt, and financial independence would make me a lot less invested in what happens this election.
Those Telemundo polls (obviously not the most accurate, but whatever) after the debates (especially the VP debate) make me feel better about Florida. Trump has been polling well with hispanics, especially in Florida and they might just take him home.If T holds Arizona, and Arizona is looking pretty good, Biden needs to win MN, WI, MI, and PA. Biden losses one of them , he’s done. This assume there’s no flip of a traditional red state like GA.
Edit: forgot about Florida. If Biden wins Florida, he can lose more than one of those rust belt states. But Florida is a toss up now, and I feel good about Fl.
Yes exactly, I've been saying this for a while.Joe Biden
Here are my reasons why
1) Trump Kills Stimulus talks this week(Bad Move)
So in the midst of the pandemic, where millions of Americans are getting laid-off and losing their jobs left and right, where millions are struggling to put food on the table, over 30% of Americans can't pay their rent and 28 million people are on the brink of homelessness, you decide to cut their life line for what exactly? This is absolutely stunning, and it goes to show you how out of touch Donald Trump is from average Americans. Its no surprise to me that Joe Biden is leading in every single poll imaginable, you want to know why? Because there is a pandemic, a depression, and numb nuts (Trump) just shut the door on anymore help before the election. Congratulations Donnie, you just lost yourself the election.
2) Trump's Political Instincts from 2016 are gone
In 2016, Trump ran an anti-establishment populist campaign. He ripped Hillary for taking corporate money, being bought by wall street, and listening to the special interests. He stood up for American workers and hammered Hillary on NAFTA and being for TPP. He was out there calling for draining the swamp and became the outsider candidate that was going to shake up the political establishment in Washington. He ran a near perfect and superb campaign.
^^^ What happened? Where is this Donald Trump in 2020? You know what happened? He became the ultimate insider once he became president. He became corrupt just like them and surrounded himself with wall street and the big banks, the very people he railed against in 2016, because deep down he always wanted to be accepted by them, and being patted on the back by them. He literally became the ultimate establishment president. Doing huge tax breaks for the corporations while giving the American people crumbs. He got sucked in too much into that Fox News bubble and has become what I call the Fox News grandpa you have on Facebook and twitter that just blurrs nonsense things like obamagate, antifa, "radical left", etc.. There are no more normie issues that he's focusing on anymore, its just pure Fox News talking points, and that in itself will not win you an election, which leads to my number 3.
3) Trying to paint Biden as a Marxist, BLM, and Antifa (News Flash, its not going to work)
Trump's strategy this time around is to try to paint Biden as some kind of communist radical socialist when he's pretty much a corporate centrist. Why in the hell would you run a campaign trying to say that your opponent really wants to change stuff, IN THE MIDDLE OF A PANDEMIC!!. You are helping him when you say that. When things are going miserable and going terribly, the first thing people want is change! "I need help now, the system as it is isn't working, I want change". Well congratulations Donnie for doing the work for Biden "he's going to do radical change", well how does that sound for an American who just lost his job and his life is in the dumpster, he will probably go "sure sign me up, that's exactly what I want right now".
Trump is too much into that Fox News bubble and lost all his political instincts he had. He was suppose to be the change candidate, what happened? Trump is so bad right now that he is making Joe Biden look like FDR which is laughable.
4) Trump trying to override the virus with sheer marketing and bravado
Trump: "A lot of people are saying I did a phenomenal job, a tremendous job"
Well the country does not feel that way, your numbers are really low on COVID, and Biden is winning on the issue and the death toll is rising. Some 210,000 Americans have lost their lives on your watch, and instead of taking steps to try to unify the country and easing their concerns, he just pretends like they are doing a good job. "Things are awesome, don't worry about it, the virus isn't even that deadly". That's not going to work dude, its not going to work. People see right through it and they see that death count rising. He also looks like a giant idiot saying that masks don't work and making fun of Biden for always wearing a mask, especially now that he got bit.
5) Trump focusing wayyyy too much on "Law and Order" and not nearly enough on the economy, jobs, and COVID-19
Trump: "Joe Biden and the radical left will destroy the suburbs and burn down cities and incite violence"
What's the death count from leftist protests?.....I'll wait. 1? Maybe 2 deaths?
What's the death count as a result from COVID-19?... Exactly! approximately 210,000 deaths.
This is not in the top 5 of things the country cares for right now and Trump decides to put it front and center. The funny thing is that Joe Biden is actually seen as better in "law and order" than Trump is. Go figure.
Link: Majority Favor Biden Over Trump on Law and Order, Poll indicates
This is not 2016! I repeat, this is not 2016! We have a pandemic now with 210,000 of our fellow Americans dead because of it. We have an economic recession and massive unemployment something we didn't have in 2016. Trump lost his mojo and has become the ultimate insider and the epitome of the establishment, there is no populism left in him whatsoever and all his political instincts are gone. He has no normie issues he's focusing on to speak of other than how the left is bad and "antifa". This is too easy. Biden will win this election hands down. His poll numbers keep increasing by the day while Trump's keeps decreasing. Trump's lax attitude about the virus when millions are suffering and hundreds of thousands of lives are lost and his inability to give aid to the American people during this pandemic will result in him losing. I just don't see him winning to be honest with you.
Biden will be our next president in 2021.