Who do you think will win the 2020 US Election?

Who will win the 2020 US Election

  • Trump

    Votes: 145 82.4%
  • Biden

    Votes: 31 17.6%

  • Total voters
    176

Blade Runner

Kingfisher
Yes, in Pendleton's EC map tie before, it still wouldn't likely be Maine with all 4 to Biden, so Trump would win with like 271. LOL

And by the way, I just went back to predictit.org in November 2016. About 10 days before the election, Clinton was 81, then with 5 days til the election, she was 68. Biden is 68 currently.

There are as many, or more, reasons to believe currently that the polls are equally as wrong again - if not more.

From the above tie map, if Trump wins WI/NC/FL, it seems like he can't lose. And I think he will win those states, or a state just like WI (MI or PA) which makes the win pretty foreseeable. Especially since WI is much smaller with only 10 EC voters.
 

jarlo

Sparrow
From the above tie map, if Trump wins WI/NC/FL, it seems like he can't lose. And I think he will win those states, or a state just like WI (MI or PA) which makes the win pretty foreseeable. Especially since WI is much smaller with only 10 EC voters.
The problem is that even states which most of us would think us as strongly conservative - e.g. Texas and Georgia - are at risk. Last election black people wouldn't come out to vote, because everyone loathes Hilary Clinton and there wasn't a sufficiently concerted media effort to label Trump a racist. Now, we've had the combination of the China flu, BLM, and the media whipping black people into a frenzy in which Trump is some Neo-Nazi white supremacist, and Biden has a sufficiently unobjectionable personality that they'll vote for him.
 

stugatz

Kingfisher
I've been saying to people to not get overconfident. These four years were a delay we weren't expecting, and I admit I got complacent and didn't do enough to better myself during this time just in case he got removed from office, killed, whatever. I'm out of shape and still carrying a lot of debt, and financial independence would make me a lot less invested in what happens this election.

Yes, the impossible happened four years ago and Trump actually got elected despite what the polls consistently said. Yes, we have a lot of shy and afraid Trump voters who wouldn't dare voice their opinions in public, and regularly lie to pollsters and their friends. (More so than four years ago.) And yes, Trump doesn't really lose supporters once they come over to his side - at least he didn't four years ago, and any conservative NeverTrumpers are a small sliver of the right that never got huge.

However, keep in mind that we likely have a good number of people who impulsively voted for Trump that don't like this new normal, and look back on the Obama years fondly in comparison. I hated every minute of the Obama years as I'm sure most of you did...but I eat, sleep, and breathe politics as do you guys.

Trump could well lose enough voters to lose the whole election. As far as I can tell, he's really not polling well with the elderly, and that's a very important voting base to start losing. Will he make up the difference through pickups of blacks, hispanics, and all of this? I wouldn't place a bet on that.

What really frightened me were the polls after the Pence-Harris debate - Pence clearly won that, and anyone with even a little objectivity would agree. Four years ago, the liberals would admit if someone on their side made a mistake or obviously lost a debate. This time, it seems that every major news network was invested in pushing the narrative that Harris stomped Pence, even if focus groups and online polls said differently.
 

JayR

Woodpecker
I was new to the forum and therefore restricted from posting in politics-related threads at the time, but mashing F5 in the Trump thread on November 8, 2016 was the most fun I've ever had on the internet. I recall Roosh posting "the servers are overheating!" but I kept refreshing non-stop as results came in. Good times.

Looking forward to doing it again in a few weeks!

 

paninaro

Kingfisher
Biden (in reality Harris because Biden isn't going to make it all four years mentally), is running on an "Orange Man Bad" platform.. the anti-Trump. Can anyone point out a clear message that Biden is running on to get Joe average to get out and vote for him instead of against Trump?
This is the first election I can remember where both candidates seem to be running solely on they aren't the other guy, not on their plans. Biden is definitely the "Orange Man Bad" platform and not much else. But same with Trump. What has he said he'll do if re-elected? He has mentioned law and order (a good issue), but since he's already president, why not solve the law and order problem now instead of waiting to be re-elected?

Someone else mentioned Pennsylvania. They've hit a record number of registered voters:

As of Wednesday, 9,908,777 people are registered to vote in Pennsylvania: 4,175,532 Democrats, 3,459,627 Republicans, and 875,191 of other parties or no affiliation. Boockvar said nearly 2.5 million people have already requested mail-in ballots, the overwhelming majority of those requests coming from Democrats. By Wednesday, 1,628,401 Democrats had requested ballots, compared with 600,487 Republicans and 259,480 voters of other parties.
This shows people are really interested in the election and voting this time. I think in 2016, many people were apathetic or just felt the result was pre-ordained and sat it out.

But look at the numbers there -- how many Democrats vs Republicans have requested mail-in ballots in PA. I guess those Republican voters are planning to vote in person. Trump's people must be hoping they really do turn out. It's a lot easier to fill out a ballot that showed up at home and drop it in the mail, than to stand in long lines for hours waiting to vote. What if it's cold, rainy, or snowing on election day? I imagine some voters would just give up and not go to the polls.
 

Dusty

Peacock
Gold Member
If T holds Arizona, and Arizona is looking pretty good, Biden needs to win MN, WI, MI, and PA. Biden losses one of them , he’s done. This assume there’s no flip of a traditional red state like GA.


Edit: forgot about Florida. If Biden wins Florida, he can lose more than one of those rust belt states. But Florida is a toss up now, and I feel good about Fl.
 
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I've been saying to people to not get overconfident. These four years were a delay we weren't expecting, and I admit I got complacent and didn't do enough to better myself during this time just in case he got removed from office, killed, whatever. I'm out of shape and still carrying a lot of debt, and financial independence would make me a lot less invested in what happens this election.
This time around, I think many more people will be looking at another Trump term as breathing room and time to make themselves more self-sufficient rather than the start of a movement to take back the country. In 2016 many projected their unrealistic hopes on to Trump and became complacent.
 

JohnKreese

Pelican
If T holds Arizona, and Arizona is looking pretty good, Biden needs to win MN, WI, MI, and PA. Biden losses one of them , he’s done. This assume there’s no flip of a traditional red state like GA.


Edit: forgot about Florida. If Biden wins Florida, he can lose more than one of those rust belt states. But Florida is a toss up now, and I feel good about Fl.
Those Telemundo polls (obviously not the most accurate, but whatever) after the debates (especially the VP debate) make me feel better about Florida. Trump has been polling well with hispanics, especially in Florida and they might just take him home.

Bonus! If Trump REALLY wants to take a chance in Florida, he should bring up Andrew Gillum. Like, "you came THIS close to flipping blue in the gubernatorial race and look what THAT would have gotten you!"
 

perros

Woodpecker
Joe Biden


Here are my reasons why

1) Trump Kills Stimulus talks this week(Bad Move)

So in the midst of the pandemic, where millions of Americans are getting laid-off and losing their jobs left and right, where millions are struggling to put food on the table, over 30% of Americans can't pay their rent and 28 million people are on the brink of homelessness, you decide to cut their life line for what exactly? This is absolutely stunning, and it goes to show you how out of touch Donald Trump is from average Americans. Its no surprise to me that Joe Biden is leading in every single poll imaginable, you want to know why? Because there is a pandemic, a depression, and numb nuts (Trump) just shut the door on anymore help before the election. Congratulations Donnie, you just lost yourself the election.


2) Trump's Political Instincts from 2016 are gone

In 2016, Trump ran an anti-establishment populist campaign. He ripped Hillary for taking corporate money, being bought by wall street, and listening to the special interests. He stood up for American workers and hammered Hillary on NAFTA and being for TPP. He was out there calling for draining the swamp and became the outsider candidate that was going to shake up the political establishment in Washington. He ran a near perfect and superb campaign.

^^^ What happened? Where is this Donald Trump in 2020? You know what happened? He became the ultimate insider once he became president. He became corrupt just like them and surrounded himself with wall street and the big banks, the very people he railed against in 2016, because deep down he always wanted to be accepted by them, and being patted on the back by them. He literally became the ultimate establishment president. Doing huge tax breaks for the corporations while giving the American people crumbs. He got sucked in too much into that Fox News bubble and has become what I call the Fox News grandpa you have on Facebook and twitter that just blurrs nonsense things like obamagate, antifa, "radical left", etc.. There are no more normie issues that he's focusing on anymore, its just pure Fox News talking points, and that in itself will not win you an election, which leads to my number 3.

3) Trying to paint Biden as a Marxist, BLM, and Antifa (News Flash, its not going to work)

Trump's strategy this time around is to try to paint Biden as some kind of communist radical socialist when he's pretty much a corporate centrist. Why in the hell would you run a campaign trying to say that your opponent really wants to change stuff, IN THE MIDDLE OF A PANDEMIC!!. You are helping him when you say that. When things are going miserable and going terribly, the first thing people want is change! "I need help now, the system as it is isn't working, I want change". Well congratulations Donnie for doing the work for Biden "he's going to do radical change", well how does that sound for an American who just lost his job and his life is in the dumpster, he will probably go "sure sign me up, that's exactly what I want right now".

Trump is too much into that Fox News bubble and lost all his political instincts he had. He was suppose to be the change candidate, what happened? Trump is so bad right now that he is making Joe Biden look like FDR which is laughable.

4) Trump trying to override the virus with sheer marketing and bravado

Trump: "A lot of people are saying I did a phenomenal job, a tremendous job"

Well the country does not feel that way, your numbers are really low on COVID, and Biden is winning on the issue and the death toll is rising. Some 210,000 Americans have lost their lives on your watch, and instead of taking steps to try to unify the country and easing their concerns, he just pretends like they are doing a good job. "Things are awesome, don't worry about it, the virus isn't even that deadly". That's not going to work dude, its not going to work. People see right through it and they see that death count rising. He also looks like a giant idiot saying that masks don't work and making fun of Biden for always wearing a mask, especially now that he got bit.

5) Trump focusing wayyyy too much on "Law and Order" and not nearly enough on the economy, jobs, and COVID-19

Trump: "Joe Biden and the radical left will destroy the suburbs and burn down cities and incite violence"

What's the death count from leftist protests?.....I'll wait. 1? Maybe 2 deaths?

What's the death count as a result from COVID-19?... Exactly! approximately 210,000 deaths.

This is not in the top 5 of things the country cares for right now and Trump decides to put it front and center. The funny thing is that Joe Biden is actually seen as better in "law and order" than Trump is. Go figure.

Link: Majority Favor Biden Over Trump on Law and Order, Poll indicates



To conclude,

This is not 2016! I repeat, this is not 2016! We have a pandemic now with 210,000 of our fellow Americans dead because of it. We have an economic recession and massive unemployment something we didn't have in 2016. Trump lost his mojo and has become the ultimate insider and the epitome of the establishment, there is no populism left in him whatsoever and all his political instincts are gone. He has no normie issues he's focusing on to speak of other than how the left is bad and "antifa". This is too easy. Biden will win this election hands down. His poll numbers keep increasing by the day while Trump's keeps decreasing. Trump's lax attitude about the virus when millions are suffering and hundreds of thousands of lives are lost and his inability to give aid to the American people during this pandemic will result in him losing. I just don't see him winning to be honest with you.

Biden will be our next president in 2021.
 

therajraj

Sparrow
Joe Biden


Here are my reasons why

1) Trump Kills Stimulus talks this week(Bad Move)

So in the midst of the pandemic, where millions of Americans are getting laid-off and losing their jobs left and right, where millions are struggling to put food on the table, over 30% of Americans can't pay their rent and 28 million people are on the brink of homelessness, you decide to cut their life line for what exactly? This is absolutely stunning, and it goes to show you how out of touch Donald Trump is from average Americans. Its no surprise to me that Joe Biden is leading in every single poll imaginable, you want to know why? Because there is a pandemic, a depression, and numb nuts (Trump) just shut the door on anymore help before the election. Congratulations Donnie, you just lost yourself the election.


2) Trump's Political Instincts from 2016 are gone

In 2016, Trump ran an anti-establishment populist campaign. He ripped Hillary for taking corporate money, being bought by wall street, and listening to the special interests. He stood up for American workers and hammered Hillary on NAFTA and being for TPP. He was out there calling for draining the swamp and became the outsider candidate that was going to shake up the political establishment in Washington. He ran a near perfect and superb campaign.

^^^ What happened? Where is this Donald Trump in 2020? You know what happened? He became the ultimate insider once he became president. He became corrupt just like them and surrounded himself with wall street and the big banks, the very people he railed against in 2016, because deep down he always wanted to be accepted by them, and being patted on the back by them. He literally became the ultimate establishment president. Doing huge tax breaks for the corporations while giving the American people crumbs. He got sucked in too much into that Fox News bubble and has become what I call the Fox News grandpa you have on Facebook and twitter that just blurrs nonsense things like obamagate, antifa, "radical left", etc.. There are no more normie issues that he's focusing on anymore, its just pure Fox News talking points, and that in itself will not win you an election, which leads to my number 3.

3) Trying to paint Biden as a Marxist, BLM, and Antifa (News Flash, its not going to work)

Trump's strategy this time around is to try to paint Biden as some kind of communist radical socialist when he's pretty much a corporate centrist. Why in the hell would you run a campaign trying to say that your opponent really wants to change stuff, IN THE MIDDLE OF A PANDEMIC!!. You are helping him when you say that. When things are going miserable and going terribly, the first thing people want is change! "I need help now, the system as it is isn't working, I want change". Well congratulations Donnie for doing the work for Biden "he's going to do radical change", well how does that sound for an American who just lost his job and his life is in the dumpster, he will probably go "sure sign me up, that's exactly what I want right now".

Trump is too much into that Fox News bubble and lost all his political instincts he had. He was suppose to be the change candidate, what happened? Trump is so bad right now that he is making Joe Biden look like FDR which is laughable.

4) Trump trying to override the virus with sheer marketing and bravado

Trump: "A lot of people are saying I did a phenomenal job, a tremendous job"

Well the country does not feel that way, your numbers are really low on COVID, and Biden is winning on the issue and the death toll is rising. Some 210,000 Americans have lost their lives on your watch, and instead of taking steps to try to unify the country and easing their concerns, he just pretends like they are doing a good job. "Things are awesome, don't worry about it, the virus isn't even that deadly". That's not going to work dude, its not going to work. People see right through it and they see that death count rising. He also looks like a giant idiot saying that masks don't work and making fun of Biden for always wearing a mask, especially now that he got bit.

5) Trump focusing wayyyy too much on "Law and Order" and not nearly enough on the economy, jobs, and COVID-19

Trump: "Joe Biden and the radical left will destroy the suburbs and burn down cities and incite violence"

What's the death count from leftist protests?.....I'll wait. 1? Maybe 2 deaths?

What's the death count as a result from COVID-19?... Exactly! approximately 210,000 deaths.

This is not in the top 5 of things the country cares for right now and Trump decides to put it front and center. The funny thing is that Joe Biden is actually seen as better in "law and order" than Trump is. Go figure.

Link: Majority Favor Biden Over Trump on Law and Order, Poll indicates



To conclude,

This is not 2016! I repeat, this is not 2016! We have a pandemic now with 210,000 of our fellow Americans dead because of it. We have an economic recession and massive unemployment something we didn't have in 2016. Trump lost his mojo and has become the ultimate insider and the epitome of the establishment, there is no populism left in him whatsoever and all his political instincts are gone. He has no normie issues he's focusing on to speak of other than how the left is bad and "antifa". This is too easy. Biden will win this election hands down. His poll numbers keep increasing by the day while Trump's keeps decreasing. Trump's lax attitude about the virus when millions are suffering and hundreds of thousands of lives are lost and his inability to give aid to the American people during this pandemic will result in him losing. I just don't see him winning to be honest with you.

Biden will be our next president in 2021.
Yes exactly, I've been saying this for a while.

He's no longer the candidate of change that he was billed as in 2016. He's a typical conservative president with a twitter account you either love or hate
 

Panzerhund

Sparrow
Either way it's going to be an absolute disaster. Both sides are going to be denying the others validity of winning the election.

The antifa attack on the White House a few months ago was just a probe to see how far they could push the limits. They actually got pretty far TBH. The president was evacuated to the bunker two nights in a row.

If Trump wins the left will let loose a revolution that will make the last five months look like a nursery school playground. They intend to bring hell upon the country and all that arent lock step with them.
 

Lovinglife

Woodpecker
So you are saying the 2020 US Election will be mail in votes this election? I won't waste my money betting on Trump then cause the Left will clearly cheat.
 
I think there are important ques other than polls to look at....

-Tucker Carlson has been getting 5 million nightly views

-NBA/NFL TV ratings crashing.

-Ballots being thrown out (they wouldn't be trying this hard if there wasn't a legit chance for Trump)

-The attendance at Trump's rallies

If it's a fair election (dubious).....I think Trump wins by a nice margin.
 

Neo

Pelican
Gold Member
Trump will win Florida, Ohio, and I believe Wisconsin as well. I don't know about the other states. PA is a wild card and NH and NV are going to be tight. Going to be close either way.

I see some troubling trends and also good trends like new Republicans registering over Dems by a wide margin.

If Trump does lose, it will be a sad day for America, but life will go on.

I bet many of the hopeless naysayers will stop posting here if he does lose, considering they were infiltrators all long trying to demoralize the base.
 
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