Who do you think will win the 2020 US Election?

Who will win the 2020 US Election

  • Trump

    Votes: 145 82.4%
  • Biden

    Votes: 31 17.6%

  • Total voters
    176
Trump will win as long as he doesn't fold on the election fraud stuff and stays ahead of the coup.

However, he might have to go pretty far to solidify his win and that's where the risk of him losing power is.

I'm talking things like marital law/insurrection act, arresting democrats/swamp elected officials, and other fairly extreme actions. It's possible the democrats will back off if Trump wins in overwhelming fashion but I doubt it. They lost the plot long ago and will justify any action to remove Trump despite objective evidence. If you ever have dealt with mentally ill people, force is sometimes all that works in the end. There is no reasoning with the unreasonable.

The main risk is that we know from history that Trump talks a big game but doesn't follow through more often than not when dealing with real deal stuff. Birthright citizen, the shutdown over the wall, declassification (he authorized vs ordered - big difference), fixing healthcare, tech censorship, etc. Lots of tweets talking big game but little to no follow-up.

The whitepill on that is Trump's life is probably on the line if he loses and he has been legit screwed over so he has a lot of self-interested motivation to win and eliminate the threat. Unfortunately, he constantly surrounds himself with turncoats who give bad advice and so, it's very hard to say what Trump will ultimately do when face with the crucible event of his life. There is indications he is about to clean house post-election but I'll believe when I see it.

Bottom line: Trump will win legit but if he folds in the post-election chaos, it's game over for the USA as we all know it.
 
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Athanasius

Kingfisher
The fallacy many are making in this election is similar to 2016. Only making the assumption that polls (which are inherently inaccurate based of flawed methods of collection as in 2016....discussed heavily by Richard Burris AKA Peoples Pundit) are the metric to go off is incorrect.

We have to look at several factors :
1) Voter Registration in Key States. Republicans gaining steam in PA. Florida has ended a cut off for registration (a move that counteracts Jewmberg's 100Million plan to get convicted fellows bail and create a way for them to register to vote.)
2) Incumbency. There have only been 3 incumbents in modern times not to have won re-eleciton. Ford (who was never actually elected to the Presidency and had the fall out of the Nixon/Watergate issue then lost to Carter) Jimmy Carter (disaster on multiple fronts) G. HW Bush (3rd Party Ross Pero and Bush tax hikes destroyed him) Trump has extremely high enthusiasm among his base. Biden has mediocre enthusiasm. In circumstances like this, the base always goes out to support their man.
3) Trump V Biden internal actions. For instance Biden is moving to distance himself from a possible Nevada loss, a must win where there has been significant tomfoolery with mail in ballots, even so, they are going to spend 2.3 million in TV adds as Trump/Pence are gaining Latino support and campaiging actively in person there. After the Debate he didn't even campaign in Ohio, so clearly he knows that he isnt winning that state. PA is his must win state, and even then, its iffy considering that he has almost no support out of Alleganey County and liberal areas in the center of the state.
4) MOST IMPORTANTLY: the 3 to 1 voter turnout on election day at the polling center. While there will be lawfare being conducted to months after the fact. There is going to be significant challenges to the mail in ballot system by Republicans who are going to cast every bit of doubt possible on the scammed mail in vote by the pallet. This has gotten Bernie to go out campaigning and say as much about the importance of going to vote in person. That is why the Supreme Court Justice appointment is crucial to Trump.

This is going to be a dog fight, by ultimately the Donald is going to pull this one out.
This is a good summary of why I think things are headed toward a clear Trump win. In addition, the enthusiasm gap tilts decidedly toward Trump and that has long been a harbinger of who is going to win. He's also polling better among Hispanics than in 2016. Also, everyone I know on the right who voted third party or didn't vote for either candidate last time is going Trump this time. I just think his voters are going to show up more than Biden's.
 
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Dusty

Peacock
Gold Member
Biden is ahead in the poll averages in AZ (though Trafalgar has T leading by 4) yet, both he and Kornholio go to Arizona together, and no one shows up. Looks like it was just Biden/Harris staff, media, and very few others.


If T takes AZ and FL, Biden has to win every one of the rust belt states: PA, WI, MI, MN.
 
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Dilated

Robin
Biden is ahead in the poll averages in AZ (though Trafalgar has T leading by 4) yet, both he and Kornholio go to Arizona together, and no one shows up. Looks like it was just Biden/Harris staff, media, and very few others.


If T takes AZ and FL, Biden has to win every one of the rust belt states: PA, WI, MI, MN.
Yup and he’s not winning all 4. Two max- MI and MN.
 

Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member

Summary:

Trump wins with 275 to 320 Electoral College votes.

Which brings us to the punchline, and what Trafalgar sees as the outcome on Nov 3. In a nutshell, based on Trafalgar swing state polls, Trumps wins with 275 electoral votes.

Or;

What about the the "winner" in the 2016 polling fiasco, the Democracy Institute, and its Latest Poll for September:

Only asks likely voters, and asks about so-called ‘shy votes’.
Trump leads Biden 46%-45%, nationally.
Trump leads in swing states (FL, IA, MI, MN, PA, WI) 47% to 43%.
Trump’s swing state leads would give him 320 electoral votes, and Biden 218.
77% of Trump voters would not admit to friends and family.
Amy Coney Barrett nomination has little impact on approximately 8 in 10 voters.
Law and order is top issue (32%). Economy is second (30%).
Voters trust Trump more on economy than Biden: 60% to 40%, respectively
But wait, there's more shocks, because according to Camelot, Republicans are also likely to retain their control of the Senate.

Current Senate makeup is 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats and Independents.
35 Senate seats up for grabs.
23 seats are held by Republicans; 12 held by Democrats.
 

perros

Woodpecker
Just like Yang was gonna be the Democrat nominee. I guaranteed he wouldn't be, and I remember your stupid posts then, too.

GTFO with that crap

Trump will win and it will be so decisive on election day, the (after-the-fact) mail in BS attempts will be shut down within 10 days of the failed, subsequent attempt of coup (number 5 at that point?).
Please quote me where I predicted Andrew Yang was going to win. I never said such a thing.

The guy I predicted to win the primary was Bernie Sanders, but like Dusty correctly pointed out earlier in this thread, it took all the king's horses and all the king's men, the weight of the whole establishment, the help of Obama making some phone calls (convincing Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, and Mike Bloomberg to drop out two days before Super Tuesday) which was never before seen in the history of primaries, which ultimately squashed that populist blue wave that was coming. Had Obama never made those phone calls and those candidates never dropped out before super Tuesday, it would have been a whole different race. Even Trump acknowledges that and told Joe Biden to his face in the last debate

Also, as far as Trump vs. Joe Biden, I think Joe Biden is going to win because I think Trump is a terrible candidate this time around. But that is just my opinion, you don't have to agree. So chill out bro! Take a chill pill.
 

perros

Woodpecker
I'm leaning with Biden:

1. Biden doesn't have the pure hateability that Hillary did. The pure revulsion of a bitchy feminist warmonger politician drove enough votes for Trump to win narrowly. An old affable white male just doesn't inspire the same revulsion that Hillary did. I can't help but like Uncle Joe.

2. The country is in much worse shape than we were a couple years ago. 210k dead, economy in tatters. It's too easy to blame this all on Trump.
Thank you. This is exactly my point. I totally agree with this post.
 

paninaro

Kingfisher
Biden has dementia. He is not generating any excitement, nor is Kamala Harris-- not that VPs impact much anyway. With Hillary, you had more enthusiasm among the harpies and soys for the "1st woman president." There is simply no positive energy for this ticket and the enthusiasm gap reflects it.
I agree Biden/Harris are generating little excitement, but I don't see the the pro-Hillary harpies and soys voting for Trump. They'll vote for Biden, even if they aren't excited about it.
 

Athanasius

Kingfisher
I agree Biden/Harris are generating little excitement, but I don't see the the pro-Hillary harpies and soys voting for Trump. They'll vote for Biden, even if they aren't excited about it.
It's all about which side turns out their voters, especially in the battleground states. Enthusiastic voters are more likely to turn out. A good example is Zero. In 2008, riding all the "hope and change" enthusiasm, he scored 69.5M votes. In 2012, the bloom off the rose, he received around 3.5M fewer votes than in 2008 (about the same as what Hillary got), but the the weak sauce challenger, Mitt Romney, only added 1M from McCain's 2008 totals. Lot of people stayed home.
 

Blade Runner

Kingfisher
It's all about which side turns out their voters, especially in the battleground states. Enthusiastic voters are more likely to turn out. A good example is Zero. In 2008, riding all the "hope and change" enthusiasm, he scored 69.5M votes. In 2012, the bloom off the rose, he received around 3.5M fewer votes than in 2008 (about the same as what Hillary got), but the the weak sauce challenger, Mitt Romney, only added 1M from McCain's 2008 totals. Lot of people stayed home.
Yes, and those are trump voters. This is always the case. It's sorta like saying, "Whoever ends up with the most points wins the game."
 

Blade Runner

Kingfisher
Please quote me where I predicted Andrew Yang was going to win. I never said such a thing.

The guy I predicted to win the primary was Bernie Sanders, but like Dusty correctly pointed out earlier in this thread, it took all the king's horses and all the king's men, the weight of the whole establishment, the help of Obama making some phone calls (convincing Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, and Mike Bloomberg to drop out two days before Super Tuesday) which was never before seen in the history of primaries, which ultimately squashed that populist blue wave that was coming. Had Obama never made those phone calls and those candidates never dropped out before super Tuesday, it would have been a whole different race. Even Trump acknowledges that and told Joe Biden to his face in the last debate

Also, as far as Trump vs. Joe Biden, I think Joe Biden is going to win because I think Trump is a terrible candidate this time around. But that is just my opinion, you don't have to agree. So chill out bro! Take a chill pill.
Forgive me if I confused you with It is my time or the other anti-Trump posters. They all run together with the asinine stuff they proclaim. Maybe you'll finally be humbled when Trump wins and stop posting silly stuff over and over.
 

Chrome

Sparrow
The electoral votes in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are going to matter. Lines will be long, slow, and unwieldy as everyone needs their mandated six foot bubble. Will Democrats stand in line, in the cold, for hours on end to cast a vote for their uninspiring candidate? All the polls show he's "up" over Trump anyway, so why stand there all diaper-faced, just waiting for the COVID to get ya and kill your grandma too when you can just stay home and watch Maddow's platitudes while waiting for victory without any personal contribution? After all, that's the liberal way.

Meanwhile, Trump voters know this is the last stand for our republic, and have the foresight to know things will be much more painful if they don't cast their vote. Also, "independent" voters who opted not to vote for Trump in 2016 because he was an outsider, a wildcard, with unknown political prospects now have a 3+ year record of "promises made, promises kept", along with a media metastasized with obvious bias and overbearing propaganda, prompting natural human aversion, skepticism, and pushback from anyone with a pulse and an I.Q. higher than their temperature.
 
Forgive me if I confused you with It is my time or the other anti-Trump posters. They all run together with the asinine stuff they proclaim. Maybe you'll finally be humbled when Trump wins and stop posting silly stuff over and over.
I never predicted Yang would win the Democrat nomination either. Way, way, way back when it was 16 candidates I predicted Warren because she was starting to pool Wall Street support. But she was so unlikeable it didn't matter.
 
The electoral votes in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are going to matter. Lines will be long, slow, and unwieldy as everyone needs their mandated six foot bubble. Will Democrats stand in line, in the cold, for hours on end to cast a vote for their uninspiring candidate? All the polls show he's "up" over Trump anyway, so why stand there all diaper-faced, just waiting for the COVID to get ya and kill your grandma too when you can just stay home and watch Maddow's platitudes while waiting for victory without any personal contribution? After all, that's the liberal way.

Meanwhile, Trump voters know this is the last stand for our republic, and have the foresight to know things will be much more painful if they don't cast their vote. Also, "independent" voters who opted not to vote for Trump in 2016 because he was an outsider, a wildcard, with unknown political prospects now have a 3+ year record of "promises made, promises kept", along with a media metastasized with obvious bias and overbearing propaganda, prompting natural human aversion, skepticism, and pushback from anyone with a pulse and an I.Q. higher than their temperature.
I just thought about this myself. I wonder if the polling will not hurt Biden. If the polls show he is comfortably in front of Trump, then how many of his supporters will pass on waiting out in the cold to vote for him when they think he already has it in the bag.
 

Blade Runner

Kingfisher
All the polls show he's "up" over Trump anyway, so why stand there all diaper-faced, just waiting for the COVID to get ya and kill your grandma too when you can just stay home and watch Maddow's platitudes while waiting for victory without any personal contribution? After all, that's the liberal way.
It's always funny how they don't see this side of the propaganda ledger. I think being dishonest about how close it is, is a yuge win for Trump. As you state, their chaos again bites them in the ass.
 
Well, that’s what happens when you don’t lift one single finger, at any point in your entire four-year term, to actually do anything about the media and its paid liars.
 
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