Who do you think will win the 2020 US Election?

Who will win the 2020 US Election

  • Trump

    Votes: 223 84.5%
  • Biden

    Votes: 41 15.5%

  • Total voters
    264
Democrats are pushing hard for high voter turnout. Every social media app and website is making hard pushes to get people to vote. I'm getting constant ads online and on TV about voting. More than I ever saw in 2016. They are convinced that this is going to work in their favor, but it would be hilarious if it backfires and a lot of the extra turnout is for Trump. I'm not convinced one way or another though, it depends if 4-years of anti-Trump hysteria swayed voters or if it left them fed up enough to throw another middle finger to the DNC and the media.
 

Dusty

Peacock
Gold Member
Trafalgar is the most accurate pollster. They have a method for teasing out shy Trump voters.


Trafalgar has the most favorable polls now for Trump in the battle ground states.

Trafalgar vs RCP average:

MI: Trump+1, Biden +7.2
FL: Trump+2, Biden +1.4
AZ: Trump+4, Biden +4

If Trafalgar is right again, that above is enough for Trump to win.
 
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Dusty

Peacock
Gold Member
Trafalgar is the most accurate pollster. They have a method for teasing out shy Trump voters.


Trafalgar has the most favorable polls now for Trump in the battle ground states.

Trafalgar vs RCP average:

MI: Trump+1, Biden +7.2
FL: Trump+2, Biden +1.4
AZ: Trump+4, Biden +4

If Trafalgar is right again, that above is enough for Trump to win.

To be clear, this is what it looks like if Trump wins MI, FL, and AZ (which the most accurate pollster Trafalgar is predicting). Trump wins, even if Biden wins WI, MN, and PA.

Trump is ahead in the polls in Ohio, and he won it bigly in 16, so I‘m not even considering that a battleground state anymore.

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AManLikePutin

Kingfisher
This is one of the most absurd elections ever.

The Lefties I read and talk to are 100% sure of a Biden landslide (I'm talking 320+ EC). They are even flirting with the idea of winning ALASKA!

Most of us here (Trump fans), are quite confident of Trump win and potentially a landslide.

It's like we are living in two parallel worlds. Which should be impossible, because there is only one objective truth.

I was very confident of Donaldo win in 2016...but this one, can't predict really....let's wait and see.
 

n0000

Woodpecker
This is one of the most absurd elections ever.

The Lefties I read and talk to are 100% sure of a Biden landslide (I'm talking 320+ EC). They are even flirting with the idea of winning ALASKA!

Most of us here (Trump fans), are quite confident of Trump win and potentially a landslide.

It's like we are living in two parallel worlds. Which should be impossible, because there is only one objective truth.

I was very confident of Donaldo win in 2016...but this one, can't predict really....let's wait and see.

It depends on where you get your propaganda. This is also why we see such a divide in behavior between Democrats and Republicans in terms of fear of COVID.
 

Pendleton

Kingfisher
I don't know on what basis anyone could be predicting a Biden landslide. Trump won a landslide in the Electoral College last time and is polling better in 2020 than he did in 2016. He has the power of incumbency. His support within the GOP is very high. Trump is at 258 with just the states where he is leading or tied with Biden. We have had 6 months of far left riots. We had six months of leftist governors in swing states imposing crushing lockdowns. Biden is senile and has been exposed as a criminal. There are certainly scenarios where Biden could win but I don't look at the Electoral College map and see any scenario where he could get a landslide.

Longer term it seems the death of the GOP lies in those states that went red in 2016 but supported Romney more than they supported Trump - Arizona, Texas and Georgia. Given how unappealing Romney is, the demographic destruction of these states must be particularly intense if even the greater enthusiasm for Trump couldn't result in a stronger performance than Romney.
 

bucky

Ostrich
Random thought on Trump: if he wins it will be inspiring in spite of anything he may or may not accomplish because it will show that 1) there's still some "fight" left in heritage America and 2) it will be a crushing loss for the MSM after four years of devoting their miserable, traitorous existence to destroying him. I'd find both of those inspiring, even though I have serious doubts about Orangeman accomplishing much more in a second term than he did in his disappointing first term.

Also, if he wins it will at least mean some good, hilarious fun watching people lose their minds again, at least if you live in a heavily blue state surrounded by goodwhites as I do.
 

Snag87

Robin
I don't know on what basis anyone could be predicting a Biden landslide. Trump won a landslide in the Electoral College last time and is polling better in 2020 than he did in 2016. He has the power of incumbency. His support within the GOP is very high. Trump is at 258 with just the states where he is leading or tied with Biden. We have had 6 months of far left riots. We had six months of leftist governors in swing states imposing crushing lockdowns. Biden is senile and has been exposed as a criminal. There are certainly scenarios where Biden could win but I don't look at the Electoral College map and see any scenario where he could get a landslide.

Longer term it seems the death of the GOP lies in those states that went red in 2016 but supported Romney more than they supported Trump - Arizona, Texas and Georgia. Given how unappealing Romney is, the demographic destruction of these states must be particularly intense if even the greater enthusiasm for Trump couldn't result in a stronger performance than Romney.
Huh? He didn't win a landslide last time and is polling considerably worse. I think a Trump victory would be a miracle. Biden will win popular vote by 4 million+ at minimum.
 

Pendleton

Kingfisher
Huh? He didn't win a landslide last time and is polling considerably worse. I think a Trump victory would be a miracle. Biden will win popular vote by 4 million+ at minimum.

Don't know what country you're in but we don't choose the President by popular vote in the US. We use the Electoral College. Trump won 304-227. It was the best performance by the GOP since the 1980s. And the RCP polling averages show him polling higher in the battleground states than he did in 2016.
 

bucky

Ostrich
Don't know what country you're in but we don't choose the President by popular vote in the US. We use the Electoral College. Trump won 304-227. It was the best performance by the GOP since the 1980s. And the RCP polling averages show him polling higher in the battleground states than he did in 2016.

To be fair, no outcome would surprise me, except maybe Biden winning the EC and losing the popular vote. That would be hilarious though.
 

Snag87

Robin
Don't know what country you're in but we don't choose the President by popular vote in the US. We use the Electoral College. Trump won 304-227. It was the best performance by the GOP since the 1980s. And the RCP polling averages show him polling higher in the battleground states than he did in 2016.
Gee, thanks for the info. 304-227 is not a landslide. Obama vs McCain and Clinton vs Dole were landslides.

I use 538 polls, where he is performing significantly lower. If the polls were as inaccurate as they were in '16 and Trump wins over virtually every undecided voter, he still loses.
 

Dusty

Peacock
Gold Member
Huh? He didn't win a landslide last time and is polling considerably worse. I think a Trump victory would be a miracle. Biden will win popular vote by 4 million+ at minimum.

Poast your map.

The election comes down to a handful of battleground states. Which of these states will Biden win? MI, WI, PA, FL, AZ?
 

Neo

Pelican
Gold Member
Gee, thanks for the info. 304-227 is not a landslide. Obama vs McCain and Clinton vs Dole were landslides.

I use 538 polls, where he is performing significantly lower. If the polls were as inaccurate as they were in '16 and Trump wins over virtually every undecided voter, he still loses.

Bidens polling worse than Clinton in the battleground states as of today.


This election is going to be close.

If you think Trump has no chance and needs a miracle put a huge bet on Biden at PredictIt and post it here. Until then you're LARPING.
 

Snag87

Robin
Poast your map.

The election comes down to a handful of battleground states. Which of these states will Biden win? MI, WI, PA, FL, AZ?
I think he'll win all of them. If he loses any it's most likely to be FL and AZ. That won't win him the election..
 

Snag87

Robin
Bidens polling worse than Clinton in the battleground states as of today.


This election is going to be close.

If you think Trump has no chance and needs a miracle put a huge bet on Biden at PredictIt and post it here. Until then you're LARPING.
Biden is currently polling far better than Clinton was the day before election. As we both know (or should) Clinton's lead diminished significantly the week leading up to election day. What do you foresee causing Biden's lead to decrease?
 

bucky

Ostrich
Bidens polling worse than Clinton in the battleground states as of today.


This election is going to be close.

If you think Trump has no chance and needs a miracle put a huge bet on Biden at PredictIt and post it here. Until then you're LARPING.

I'm not really a gambling man, but I've considered putting some money on Biden because that way whatever happens, I'll have cause to celebrate. It would have to be with some sort of legitimate service though, because I feel like if I were to bet with any of the normie Daily Show democrats I know around here, they'd welsh in the case of Trump win and say it was all the Russians again.
 

Snag87

Robin
I'm not really a gambling man, but I've considered putting some money on Biden because that way whatever happens, I'll have cause to celebrate. It would have to be with some sort of legitimate service though, because I feel like if I were to bet with any of the normie Daily Show democrats I know around here, they'd welsh in the case of Trump win and say it was all the Russians again.
I've never bet on anything other than poker, but I'm considering putting money on Biden because I feel the odds are really good. 538 has him at 87% and he's 65 on predict it. Solid bet.
 

Dusty

Peacock
Gold Member
I think he'll win all of them. If he loses any it's most likely to be FL and AZ. That won't win him the election..

If Biden loses FL and AZ, he needs to win MI, WI, and PA. The most accurate pollster from 2016, Trafalgar has Trump ahead in MI, AZ, and, FL, and within spitting distance in PA.

You said you’re relying for 538 for your predictions. Nate got all those rust belt states and several others wrong in 2016.
Nate was wrong on FL, GA, PA, WI, MI, NC. Pretty important states to get wrong.

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