This crash is definitely coming, but it's better described as a collapse since "crash" in financial terms has a temporary connotation to it. Will it happen in 2023? Maybe. What I think is going to happen in the near term is this. The fed's rate hikes are, predictably, having an adverse impact on the economy. That's not surprising, since our economy is structured such that it needs constant credit creation in order to function. Raising rates effectively reduces the rate of credit creation, therefore, aggregated economic growth slows. We're seeing that now. Technically the recession everyone seems to be expecting in 23 has already started, however, due to some good old wordsmithing/doublespeak, which redefined "recession", apparently, this hasn't begun just yet.
Our current situation is unique, the Federal Reserve is in a bind. They'll have to lower rates, pretty soon I suspect, and then inflation will get even worse. But, if they continue to raise rates or even keep them (presently) stable it will induce a deep recession and likely deep depression. So, at this point, they're just buying time by playing by the old rules. The IP of America, plus, advances in data analytics, could extend the life of this dead thing a little longer, but, the structure is broken.
Elsewhere I think the geopolitical situation ensures the end of our monetary system and, frankly, American hegemony. China's premier Xi's trip to Saudia Arabia signals a new order is arising, but we've seen this coming for some months now. Saudi Arabia was the cornerstone of the Petrodollar, which is the technical guarantor behind the Dollar's reserve currency status and American global dominance. Credit derives from the Petrodollar because it creates infinite demand for US Dollars. This is just my analysis, but, if you interrupt this system, even in the slightest, it has profound effects. Theoretically, our enormous debt levels are irrelevant so long as the rest of the world purchases our debt. But that's based on compulsive buy-in. A relatively small country, say, Iraq or Libya, that trades outside of this may seem to be de minimus, but, it's not about GDP or oil production, it's about making the demand for US dollars go from infinite to finite, which forces a repricing of the debt and that's catastrophic. That's already happened and its not small third-world economies.
As you can see, the US Dollar is now caught in an inflationary cycle with no end, which means the dollar perpetually becomes worth less. Another nation that stabilizes its currency in something fixed, such as backing it in gold, means it will retain value relative in one part due to the hard asset backing and also relative to the USD's consistent degradation in value (inflation). Russia has done this, and if these "sanctions" didn't exist, capital would flow there in great abundance because of what I described above. Sanctions may keep these effects from materializing in earnest for now, but, this is itself an induced prohibition on market forces which will in turn induce further perversion.
So, I'm not sure if it will be 2023 only because the fed pivot to a lower rate will induce a temporary "rush", which will be short-lived. By short-lived it could be 2-3 quarters, which depending on when they pivot could put us well within 2023. But this is all bandaids on a bursting dam.
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