Will there be a financial crash in 2023?

[Gimlet]

Jyst fyi, I do not know if there will be a crash and neither does anybody else...

But but I am smart and see the signs you say...ok...but no...just your pride and ego talking. The people who predict a crash, schiff, others, say the same thing every year...just like psychics count the hits, don't count the misses...and they pump their own investments...buy gold schiff screams from the heavens, heres my gold fund see?? Looks nice??? Buy from me.

They are no better than psychics with their guesses, go ahead and call miss cleo and youll get the same result...50/50 it will crash or it won't...and what did the bible say about sorcery or divination??

The system is way too complex for any person or even AI to predict with long term accuracy...

But but again I'm smart and know the signs...pure astrology my friend...get out your dowsing rod...lets search for water in the desert.

Have you made multi millions with stocks from nothing?? Most people over 90% cant beat an index fund with their own picks.

Now my opinion only...SCHD is a good dividend ETF, but dont listen to me study yourself.

Your take is incredibly naïve. Many people know if and when there will be a crash. (Sadly, I personally am not a part of The Club who knows anything.) They are the ones who get rich when it happens. Do you really think the folks who got out of the market in Feb 2020 and reentered in April were simply lucky? I don't know the when, but I do know that institutional investors - the folks smarter than me - started selling off early to mid 2022 and keep selling every time the market pumps and retail jumps back in. Do you really think Musk dumped Tesla stock because he needed the $$$? He will come back in later at a discount, after the flush. That's what they all do.

 

[faithlifter]

Your take is incredibly naïve. Many people know if and when there will be a crash. (Sadly, I personally am not a part of The Club who knows anything.) They are the ones who get rich when it happens. Do you really think the folks who got out of the market in Feb 2020 and reentered in April were simply lucky? I don't know the when, but I do know that institutional investors - the folks smarter than me - started selling off early to mid 2022 and keep selling every time the market pumps and retail jumps back in. Do you really think Musk dumped Tesla stock because he needed the $$$? He will come back in later at a discount, after the flush. That's what they all do.

yeah and those who did nothing in feb 2020 with their long term funds made back all.the gains and then some. Please post a screenshot of your impressive portfolio with your gains or losses. Its easily done w most bank or investment sites show us how you successfully timed the market w proof then ill take you seriously

 

[Chains of Peter]

Every year this question gets asked, and every year it never happens.
Been hearing this for over 15 years now.

Even when it does happen, life goes on.

I started my career in the beginning of a recession and looking back on those days, the only thing holding me back was my complacency. I'm having a wedding in an era of hyperinflation, but what that is teaching me is not to put my trust in worldly goods, which are no real security anyway.

 

[Gimlet]

yeah and those who did nothing in feb 2020 with their long term funds made back all.the gains and then some. Please post a screenshot of your impressive portfolio with your gains or losses. Its easily done w most bank or investment sites show us how you successfully timed the market w proof then ill take you seriously

I very clearly stated that I am not of the club who knows anything about the future. I can however plainly see that the gains people made after the March 2020 flush are almost all gone.

What is wrong with you? If you think the thread topic is not relevant, why are you here? You should get control of your emotions. You have joined the wrong forum, we don't behave like this here.

 

[faithlifter]

I very clearly stated that I am not of the club who knows anything about the future. I can however plainly see that the gains people made after the March 2020 flush are almost all gone.

What is wrong with you? If you think the thread topic is not relevant, why are you here? You should get control of your emotions. You have joined the wrong forum, we don't behave like this here.

One of my accounts is showing a +42000 gain in the past two years i can pm you the screenshot if youd like??

it seems i indeed have i mean some of you make claims with no evidemce and ridicule me for what reason?

 

[Blade Runner]

If @faithlifter is amazing like this, let's rock and roll, what are his positions or predictions for this year?

I'll take all the knowledge and smarts I can get!

 

[sea_pilgrim]

A painful lesson for me to learn in 2020 was that the unvirtuous corporations (airlines, hotels, etc operating with no cash cushion) and unvirtous hordes / herds (similarly operating with no savings cushion) always end up getting bailed out via money printing, borrowing, and other forms of inter-generational theft. As someone that's studied the markets for 15+ years, there'd be nothing that would make me happier than a permanent reset to an environment of normalized interest rates and higher volatility, where traders are rewarded on their risk management instead of their over-leveredness. Instead of investing based on what I wish would happen, I need to start investing based on what's likely: I think they're going to be successful at engineering a relatively soft landing and propping up assets. To the extent that they fail, they'll use it as an excuse to usher in the CBDC. As a nomad-trader, this means that I need to hold my nose and focus on increasing my notional exposure to the markets, invent some new risk management metrics (since the "sharpe ratio" has become next to meaningless), and figure out how to own some real assets that will be harder to comfiscate during the transition to CBDCs.

 

[Blade Runner]

I think they're going to be successful at engineering a relatively soft landing and propping up assets.

Why?

and figure out how to own some real assets that will be harder to comfiscate during the transition to CBDCs.

Yes, this is going to be as important as anything since markets will be trade-able, but not "set it and forget it."

 

[sea_pilgrim]

Why?

I think that Powell understands that the US Treasury has a cliff of debt to refinance in a couple of years, and needs to get inflation and yields down before that. As the market expects, he'll likely keep the fed funds up around 5% as long as possible before bringing it down prior to the issuance cliff, in order to minimize the chance of exploding the deficit. If this plays out according to plan, a grinding bear market will continue for a while, but given the buy side's bearish sentiment and light positioning, I guess I just don't see a short term catalyst for the bottom to fall out...who's going to be the marginal seller?

Of course if they aren't able to redefine the CPI baskets and definition of inflation before the refinancing issue rears its head, it could be uglier. Do you think that inflation will prove too sticky for them to handle in the next couple of years? The sad thing is that the damage is already done, in terms of the upwards stair step to the overall price level.

 

[Blade Runner]

Do you think that inflation will prove too sticky for them to handle in the next couple of years? The sad thing is that the damage is already done, in terms of the upwards stair step to the overall price level.

Yes, going from 9 to 7% is fairly easy, but getting this bad boy below 5% becomes exponentially hard. It's not like supply chains are going to get all that much better, or oil will suddenly drop and remain at a low price, or productivity has a great future (efficiency and production will be down for a long time).

Worse than that, it takes quite a while for the rate hikes to actually phase in and integrate, and this was one of the fastest (perhaps the fastest) hiking cycles ever ... into a crap economy with huge debt and boomers with still tons of money worried about living much longer ... get ready for a wild ride, Mr. Toad

 

[chance vought]

A painful lesson for me to learn in 2020 was that the unvirtuous corporations (airlines, hotels, etc operating with no cash cushion) and unvirtous hordes / herds (similarly operating with no savings cushion) always end up getting bailed out via money printing, borrowing, and other forms of inter-generational theft.

This is simply outcomes following incentives...it has nothing to do with virtue. Savers have their wealth transferred to debtors, via inflation. An individual, organization or company that saves will cease to exist under the fiat, debt based monetary system. Taking on as much debt as possible to grow as fast as possible is how you survive in fiat world. Saving (in fiat money) is slowly starving yourself. Government benefits the most, since it is by far the largest debtor. Corporations that support government benefit nearly as much, as they buy regulators, they get vast amounts of debt at rates below inflation, which makes the debt growth and money management more profitable than the actual business of providing goods and services. Auto manufacturers lose money on the vehicles they sell, but make huge profits on the loans to buy those vehicles (they are like banks...except instead of creating new money, they can take money at negative real interest rates and make money by charging interest...banks are even more profitable because they can create the money.)

As someone that's studied the markets for 15+ years, there'd be nothing that would make me happier than a permanent reset to an environment of normalized interest rates and higher volatility, where traders are rewarded on their risk management instead of their over-leveredness. Instead of investing based on what I wish would happen, I need to start investing based on what's likely: I think they're going to be successful at engineering a relatively soft landing and propping up assets. To the extent that they fail, they'll use it as an excuse to usher in the CBDC. As a nomad-trader, this means that I need to hold my nose and focus on increasing my notional exposure to the markets, invent some new risk management metrics (since the "sharpe ratio" has become next to meaningless), and figure out how to own some real assets that will be harder to comfiscate during the transition to CBDCs.

I agree, and there is one asset that has a sharpe ratio that blows everything else away, and can't be confiscated.

 

[sea_pilgrim]

Taking on as much debt as possible to grow as fast as possible is how you survive in fiat world.

I agree, and there is one asset that has a sharpe ratio that blows everything else away, and can't be confiscated.

I agree with your diagnosis that the 'fiat world' is generally what is driving the existence of so much moral hazard, which seems unvirtuous on the part of both donors and recipients.

While bitcoin currently trades more like a risk asset (plummeting along with gold during the market panic), I'm generally onboard and share your hope that it will someday be the solution.

 

[Blade Runner]

What's our definition of "crash" here again? I am saying something big happens March/April, September/October or July. In that order. So ... coming soon to a theater near you! Ha

 

[Dilated]

What's our definition of "crash" here again? I am saying something big happens March/April, September/October or July. In that order. So ... coming soon to a theater near you! Ha

Feels like a big leg down coming soon (3,400-3,500) similar to last September. Watch for the Fed to hike rates by more than 25 basis points early Feb. Very near term they seem committed to fighting inflation at all costs. Long term (2nd half 2023) the markets will dictate otherwise.

 

[Ironclad]

Feels like a big leg down coming soon (3,400-3,500) similar to last September. Watch for the Fed to hike rates by more than 25 basis points early Feb. Very near term they seem committed to fighting inflation at all costs. Long term (2nd half 2023) the markets will dictate otherwise.

How long before the FED is forced to reverse course like the BOJ did recently, and start revving up the printing press for QE?

 

[Ironclad]

 

[chance vought]

How long before the FED is forced to reverse course like the BOJ did recently, and start revving up the printing press for QE?

QE is dead...there is too much already, and the Fed is losing so much money paying reverse repo interest rates, QE only exacerbates that problem.

I think the course reversal will be more helicopter money: it will look like student loan forgiveness, something to make it politically palatable. Maybe bigger welfare checks or some new welfare program.

The welfare state will expand in the rest of the world as well, with low income "subsidies" for food and energy; there will be no austerity -- more money will be transferred from workers and savers to debtors: the state will double down on current policy, more bread and circuses, leading to more inflation.

OR -- there is low inflation/low growth like post GFC. I think this is a possible outcome, but less likely than the above for a few reasons:
1) post GFC, we had the fracking boom, which kept energy prices very low, which is the second biggest input cost for business besides labor: there isn't likely to be a windfall energy boom because there has not been any capital investment in that area

2) post GFC, the excess debt that built up in the banking system was transferred to the sovereigns. The only place for the sovereigns to send that debt is nowhere. Sure, Brazil, Turkey, and Mexico can just get an IMF loan and pile on more debt to pay off the old, but the US, Germany, France, Switzerland, and Japan are basically Bernie Madoff at the top of the IMF ponzi...they can't just give themselves loans out of the IMF when there is nothing to loan (its a ponzi). There isn't really anything there...just wall street banks making loans (loans are money creation) to the IMF who makes loans to the 3rd world and takes the spread. When the 3rd world can't pay up, they give them a bigger loan to pay off the old one, collecting even more rent, under the condition that the slave country allow even more resource extraction and exploitation. El Salvador is the first country to give the IMF the middle finger on this. I predict president Bukele will be dead by the CIA in 4 years. Every African president that tried have their own currency and leave the colonial french franc (CFA) plantation ended up dead. Qaddafi who tried to sell oil for gold, dead. Sadaam who tried to sell oil for Euros, dead. If they don't kill him, other countries will follow suit.

When the state is at the top of a literal ponzi scheme, there is no way out, the G5 and IMF are the top of the ponzi. They will have to either: create the money that doesn't exist, high inflation and chaos, or let the system collapse in even more chaos.

 

[Ironclad]

QE is dead...there is too much already, and the Fed is losing so much money paying reverse repo interest rates, QE only exacerbates that problem.

I think the course reversal will be more helicopter money: it will look like student loan forgiveness, something to make it politically palatable. Maybe bigger welfare checks or some new welfare program.

The welfare state will expand in the rest of the world as well, with low income "subsidies" for food and energy; there will be no austerity -- more money will be transferred from workers and savers to debtors: the state will double down on current policy, more bread and circuses, leading to more inflation.

OR -- there is low inflation/low growth like post GFC. I think this is a possible outcome, but less likely than the above for a few reasons:
1) post GFC, we had the fracking boom, which kept energy prices very low, which is the second biggest input cost for business besides labor: there isn't likely to be a windfall energy boom because there has not been any capital investment in that area

2) post GFC, the excess debt that built up in the banking system was transferred to the sovereigns. The only place for the sovereigns to send that debt is nowhere. Sure, Brazil, Turkey, and Mexico can just get an IMF loan and pile on more debt to pay off the old, but the US, Germany, France, Switzerland, and Japan are basically Bernie Madoff at the top of the IMF ponzi...they can't just give themselves loans out of the IMF when there is nothing to loan (its a ponzi). There isn't really anything there...just wall street banks making loans (loans are money creation) to the IMF who makes loans to the 3rd world and takes the spread. When the 3rd world can't pay up, they give them a bigger loan to pay off the old one, collecting even more rent, under the condition that the slave country allow even more resource extraction and exploitation. El Salvador is the first country to give the IMF the middle finger on this. I predict president Bukele will be dead by the CIA in 4 years. Every African president that tried have their own currency and leave the colonial french franc (CFA) plantation ended up dead. Qaddafi who tried to sell oil for gold, dead. Sadaam who tried to sell oil for Euros, dead. If they don't kill him, other countries will follow suit.

When the state is at the top of a literal ponzi scheme, there is no way out, the G5 and IMF are the top of the ponzi. They will have to either: create the money that doesn't exist, high inflation and chaos, or let the system collapse in even more chaos.

You are correct that helicopter money is definitely on the way.

 

[chance vought]

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/25/business/british-pound-drops-record-low-intl-hnk/index.html

 

[Dilated]

How long before the FED is forced to reverse course like the BOJ did recently, and start revving up the printing press for QE?

Fed saying they won’t but my guess is early Fall