I don't see AR/VR taking off. People still enjoy the exclusivity that comes with being able to travel. COVID has made things more of a pain, but it hasn't made travel impossible - you have to do actual work. In my case, I have some travel destinations planned this year: anywhere that merely requires a PCR or Antibody test.
Does that limit my options? Yes, but who would want to visit the pathetic country of the UK, Canada or Australia? I've been to none of those, and reading the news, I don't think I ever want to set foot in either.
Will it normalize? partially, yes, I would say. Anywhere that isn't the UK or EU, sure.
Those who say we're going to have soviet-style restrictions on travel, I'm not saying it's not possible, but I just don't see even the most extreme case being possible. My reason? If ONLY air freight and domestic flights are permitted, that would increase the cost of fuel, which the elites use, to fuel their rape planes. It's a two-way street, even for the elites.
You cannot end commercial air-travel, or restrict it, without not affecting the cost of operating your precious fleet of private small aircraft. The entire modern air economy is based off commercial travel, hell, even the gulf stream small jets were an off shoot of that. It's not as simple as we'd like to think.
Potential for more bullshit? yes. An entire ban? not possible. We'll probably have some form of social credit, or QR tracking, but I don't believe they would pull something that drastic in front of the peasants.
Couldn't disagree more on VR. We will be sitting our fatasses in VR chairs in the future and it will feel better than reality.
On travel you are taking a black or white view. All they have to do is discourage it. With that, economies change, towns change. If milking foreigners becomes less profitable than farming then farming is what they will do. Some tourist hot spots in certain countries will be gone. Look at Phuket now for example, 90% of businesses are gone. sure they can restart but let's see. Maybe they won't want to.
I was not saying some people wouldn't be able to put in work and make travel possible but that it will become a hassle. Also, a lot of travel is done by families which will make it a lot harder to be flexible. Try quarantining with 2 kids and a wife in a hotel room or getting stuck on vacation an extra 2 weeks because a kid gets sick. Not worth the risk.
I don't think soviet style lockdowns are coming for everyone, just that staying local will be encouraged more than globetrotting.