Your big bets for 2019-2020?
- Thread starter Nolimitz
- Start date
If I can only change one, Bitcoin. Probably goes to 50-100k before end of 2020. That's a much better theoretical return than gold or silver. Altcoins may get better returns better than Bitcoin but difficult to predict. Altcoins might be dead or come back alive when Bitcoin goes over 20k.
godzilla
Pelican
I think we on the verge of something worse than the 2007 crisis. Might take a little time to play out. Best to stay diversified at all times. You never really know what central banks will.
These are my investments in a nutshell.
Horrible long term bet, but if we are just talking the next year, I've been long treasuries for a few weeks now, working pretty well. Think this trade will work until the fed drops rates to zero. Like I said ONLY a trade. Yields are fucking terrible.
I own a little gold as well. Central banks all over the world having been cutting rates too. A lot of buying in gold so far this year.
Best to own some stock too, you never know what central banks will do. A big slice is dedicated KO and very little is in smaller tech company.
Always have CASH. You'll need to buy assets on sale.
I don't own Bitcoin but I think Bitcoin will do well. It's starting to best seen as store of value for many and not a speculative investment. On the other hand, I'm super negative on many of these altcoins. Many of them are vastly under-performing Bitcoin over the last year. I don't think there is enough room for this many non-asset backed coins on internet. Like a lot of new industries, (think tech in 2000) there is usually a big wash out of some of the weak players before the rest of the industry takes off. Many of the best/first coins will survive and will do ok.
Keep in mind, in 2008, the only investment that really went up was treasuries, even though the US Debt is horrible, it is a safety trade. During a liquidity crisis, people will sell assets to raise cash, so even Gold and Crypto might go down for at least a little while. I expect everything to do down during the next crisis
These are my investments in a nutshell.
Horrible long term bet, but if we are just talking the next year, I've been long treasuries for a few weeks now, working pretty well. Think this trade will work until the fed drops rates to zero. Like I said ONLY a trade. Yields are fucking terrible.
I own a little gold as well. Central banks all over the world having been cutting rates too. A lot of buying in gold so far this year.
Best to own some stock too, you never know what central banks will do. A big slice is dedicated KO and very little is in smaller tech company.
Always have CASH. You'll need to buy assets on sale.
I don't own Bitcoin but I think Bitcoin will do well. It's starting to best seen as store of value for many and not a speculative investment. On the other hand, I'm super negative on many of these altcoins. Many of them are vastly under-performing Bitcoin over the last year. I don't think there is enough room for this many non-asset backed coins on internet. Like a lot of new industries, (think tech in 2000) there is usually a big wash out of some of the weak players before the rest of the industry takes off. Many of the best/first coins will survive and will do ok.
Keep in mind, in 2008, the only investment that really went up was treasuries, even though the US Debt is horrible, it is a safety trade. During a liquidity crisis, people will sell assets to raise cash, so even Gold and Crypto might go down for at least a little while. I expect everything to do down during the next crisis
The Yield Curve has been an accurate predictor of a recession for a long time now. Everyone can see its inverted and a recession will come in the very close future (within 12 months?).
In 2008 gold went to $1162 in March then dropped to $864 by October. By Feb 2009 the price recovered to $1150. By Nov 2009 price was $1392.
It's all here:
https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart
Gold may repeat the same pattern and some notable technical analysts have suggested Bitcoin will behave similarly. I like gold but the gains have not been as good as Bitcoin and evidence suggest to me that Bitcoin is eating gold's lunch and may continue to do so.
In 2008 gold went to $1162 in March then dropped to $864 by October. By Feb 2009 the price recovered to $1150. By Nov 2009 price was $1392.
It's all here:
https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart
Gold may repeat the same pattern and some notable technical analysts have suggested Bitcoin will behave similarly. I like gold but the gains have not been as good as Bitcoin and evidence suggest to me that Bitcoin is eating gold's lunch and may continue to do so.
My plan is simple take intraday profits out of the S&P Futures until the market changes trend to a point where the Fed and PPT can no longer support the markets and then go short once the trend changes from UP to Down (Crosses the 200 Week Moving Average like 2008/09 - diversifying into Gold, Silver (Been Buying pre-1964 Silver circulated for Silver Content Value and then some Mint and Proof Sets and Brilliant Uncirculated 1oz US Silver Eagles and Can/Oz 1oz .999 and .9999 content silver coins and a few 1 oz .999 blanks and ingots about $10K worth which can easily be sold on ebay etc via paypal when $$$ value continues to rise), TIAAbank Baskets of Commodity Currencies, some of Schiffs emerging markets funds, a small Organic Farm and desirable AirBnB Ocean or Lake community rentals as the Boomers who everyone loves to hate on here are benefitting from their massive wealth inheritances from the Greatest Generation - so Boomer Vacation and even better 2nd Home Hot Spots in New England like the Maine/NH Coastline, Maine and NH Lakes, Mountains, Cape Ann, Cape Cod, and the Islands will provide a lucrative quality of life in retirement, perhaps rent a monthly AirBnB snow bird rental in different parts of Florida until I can find a spot not overrun by Northern liberals and low IQ invaders.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ES1!/0biTkkM8-Mar-2009-Low-to-ATH-3029-50-5-Wave/
The past week's so-called CNBC China Currency Devaluation Panic was an expected simple short term A-B-C wave retracement from the 10 year long 5 Wave All Time High at 3029.50... Still in a 10 Year Bull Market.
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https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ES1!/0biTkkM8-Mar-2009-Low-to-ATH-3029-50-5-Wave/
The past week's so-called CNBC China Currency Devaluation Panic was an expected simple short term A-B-C wave retracement from the 10 year long 5 Wave All Time High at 3029.50... Still in a 10 Year Bull Market.
###
[email protected] said:
There have been 2 "yield curve" moments screamed from the rooftops since last year --- late March of this year, early December of last. I can't seem to make sense of which they want to use though, the 3 month and 10 year or the 2 year and 10 year. Oh yeah, we've never done this worldwide MMT thing either, have we? Ahh, I see. Yes, a recession is coming but this yield business means nothing. I don't see any economic indicators showing that the US will hit a recession, still. I give it at least another couple of years, but then again, what are we defining as recession? A market drop of 20% right now would still be thousands over the market level when Trump won the election in 2016, around 19k. Even if this does mean something, it still fits with my post Trump term 2 election hiccup.
Capital flight is continuing into the US. The Fed will worry people with more rate cuts, from a debt and recession inducing point of view, and they can't win = they lose "fix-it" power by lowering rates when we haven't hit the recession yet (less bullets in the chamber) and if they raise rates the media will go crazy on why raising rates into this type of MMT environment will CAUSE a recession.
I see dollar rising, gold rising, BTC really rising, and stocks super volatile but reaching 29k before they lose more than 10% from today's levels.
OP, yes, my play of all those choices would be BTC by far. But I'd have an exit strategy in mind since it is so volatile and exuberant.
godzilla
Pelican
Deepdiver said:
I hope no here buys any of Schiff's emerging markets fund. The guy was right about the housing crisis but if he wasn't popular he'd be one of the biggest snake oil salesman in the planet.
His EM funds are garbage. Some have LOST money over the last years and have the HIGH fees.
Don't trust me, just see for yourself.
He's outperform the index here only because the index is the MSCI EM Index which is weighted toward large cap companies
Small Cap EM
Both have LOST money
International Dividend
International Value
Jaydublin
Pelican
godzilla said:
You're too kind.
Yea he called the housing crisis but his clients lost a ton of money in the process. Most lost more than anybody invested in the USA and he didn't catch the recovery outside of the 2010-2011 precious metals boom which i highly doubt he sold into. Quite a few of the companies he pushed on clients went bankrupt int he 2008 crash.
I had a small 5 figure account with him back then. I was in my early 20s. The 4 positions they had me in all either went bankrupt or are still lower today than they were when we bought in... in early 2008.
Regardless, I still like to listen to this quack. He is entertaining and I think he is correct with many things but I don't usually pay attention to his investment advice.
You're thinking too much about making money whereas instead you should be thinking about how best to not loose any of your capital.
If you want to roll the dice then go to the casino, you'll get an answer a lot faster and more of a thrill out of the experience.
Are you serious about making money or are you just looking for an emotional rush?
A lot of hype around silver? Why? What moves silver? What moves gold? Ask yourself theses questions and come to a logical conclusion. Base your actions on your logical conclusions surrounding which ever instrument you are most interested in. Start with a demo account. Using your conclusions and see how the market reacted and then adjust accordingly.
Also remember to do the exact opposite of what everyone else is thinking.
If you want to roll the dice then go to the casino, you'll get an answer a lot faster and more of a thrill out of the experience.
Are you serious about making money or are you just looking for an emotional rush?
A lot of hype around silver? Why? What moves silver? What moves gold? Ask yourself theses questions and come to a logical conclusion. Base your actions on your logical conclusions surrounding which ever instrument you are most interested in. Start with a demo account. Using your conclusions and see how the market reacted and then adjust accordingly.
Also remember to do the exact opposite of what everyone else is thinking.
lunchmoney
Woodpecker
I'm going to stick with what worked for me in 2010-11, Real Estate.
Saving money to buy up inventory and homes being purchased by first time homeowners who cant afford them once again.
Saving money to buy up inventory and homes being purchased by first time homeowners who cant afford them once again.
[email protected]
Chicken
If I had to make the bet right now, I'd go with gold. It's the major (i.e. high per-unit price, as opposed to silver) physical asset that remains relatively stable over time.
But then once the economy recesses again, as it very likely will in the next few months, I'll liquidate and move it all into stocks.
"Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful." - Warren Buffet.
But then once the economy recesses again, as it very likely will in the next few months, I'll liquidate and move it all into stocks.
"Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful." - Warren Buffet.
My big bet is keeping my money liquid for the next crash.
The bull market won't last forever...
The bull market won't last forever...
My current bet (that has paid off well for myself so far, initiated early this year) is on Axsome Therapeutics. Lots of promise on their use of DXM (recreational using it is similar to Ketamine) for MDD. Phase 3 of trials start soon I believe.
With clown world a lot of normies turn to doctors to voice their displeasure with the current world and get slapped with a psych disorder, then get hopped up on old sole SSRIs (ineffective with a bunch of negative side effects). Current trend is to develop non sole-SSRI medications, with many turning to recreational drugs for inspiration, especially with the dissociates class NMDA receptor antagonist (Eskatamine being approved this year by the FDA for example)
In general am a fan of any pharma company that turns to known recreational drugs for products then come up with a way to legally sell it to "treat" something. Often they can get away with stupid high prices as well (take for example Jazz Pharma that makes billions selling Xyrem (GHB) legally for Narcolepsy, and that's extremely niche). Often can just research user reports online on various forums.
Riding it out with house money at this point.
With clown world a lot of normies turn to doctors to voice their displeasure with the current world and get slapped with a psych disorder, then get hopped up on old sole SSRIs (ineffective with a bunch of negative side effects). Current trend is to develop non sole-SSRI medications, with many turning to recreational drugs for inspiration, especially with the dissociates class NMDA receptor antagonist (Eskatamine being approved this year by the FDA for example)
In general am a fan of any pharma company that turns to known recreational drugs for products then come up with a way to legally sell it to "treat" something. Often they can get away with stupid high prices as well (take for example Jazz Pharma that makes billions selling Xyrem (GHB) legally for Narcolepsy, and that's extremely niche). Often can just research user reports online on various forums.
Riding it out with house money at this point.