Your big bets for 2019-2020?

B

BBinger

Kingfisher
Emancipator said:
My current bet (that has paid off well for myself so far, initiated early this year) is on Axsome Therapeutics. Lots of promise on their use of DXM (recreational using it is similar to Ketamine) for MDD. Phase 3 of trials start soon I believe.

With clown world a lot of normies turn to doctors to voice their displeasure with the current world and get slapped with a psych disorder, then get hopped up on old sole SSRIs (ineffective with a bunch of negative side effects). Current trend is to develop non sole-SSRI medications, with many turning to recreational drugs for inspiration, especially with the dissociates class NMDA receptor antagonist (Eskatamine being approved this year by the FDA for example)

In general am a fan of any pharma company that turns to known recreational drugs for products then come up with a way to legally sell it to "treat" something. Often they can get away with stupid high prices as well (take for example Jazz Pharma that makes billions selling Xyrem (GHB) legally for Narcolepsy, and that's extremely niche). Often can just research user reports online on various forums.

Riding it out with house money at this point.
Click to expand...

I suspect the marijuana legalization train is a long term threat to psychiatric pharma cash cows. Psych drugs and cannabis compete for the numerous patients whose complaint takes the form "I'm miserable, and I care deeply about it." Psych drugs attack either part of that complaint with varying degrees of efficacy. Cannabis attacks the caring about it with a high degree of efficacy.

Companies working on the recreational to therapeutic niche tend to see their products hit with profound regulatory handicaps in the US. Yes, one firm got approval to market the S enantiomer of Ketamine approved for MDD, but to receive esketamine the patients have to go to an office to have it administered ensuring it will never be popular in the way blockbusters like Prozac, valproate, or Seroquel were.

If you are comfortable with the risk, keep going but do follow the news. If the Phase 3 trials are good (very probable), you may want to exit your position before approval which will likely come with absolutely oppressive rules for prescribers.
 
C

CaptainChardonnay

Ostrich
Gold Member
Stocks are down 2.8% after a 10 year bull run and all of a sudden everyone's a yield curve expert lol. Do you understand why yields are inverting? Its because a massive number of people are lining up around the block to buy long term US bonds and the supply does not equal the demand pushing the price up and thus the interest rate down. This basically means that the rate does not need to be high because higher rates are meant to entice buyers, if there are many buyers then the rate drops.

Do massive amounts of people trying to get US bonds sound like the US economy is weak or in trouble?

Right now the US economy is incredibly strong that everyone wants to purchase USD because it has the highest predicted rate of ROI.

The reason Trump wants the FED to drop interest rates is to weaken the dollar making the US more competitive against currency manipulators such as China and Europe. A strong dollar means less exports and more imports.
 
Z

zoom

Kingfisher
Catholic
Gold Member
^^ So Trump is mad that China is supposedly manipulating their currency and yet he expects the FED to manipulate the USD? The guy is a clown.

The yield-curve predicted the last 5 recessions. We're definitely due for a recession in this debt-fueled economy and the most recent jobs reports have not been good, despite how Kudlow and the Trump administration wants to spin it.
 
Kid Twist

Kid Twist

 
Banned
zoom said:
^^ So Trump is mad that China is supposedly manipulating their currency and yet he expects the FED to manipulate the USD? The guy is a clown.

The yield-curve predicted the last 5 recessions. We're definitely due for a recession in this debt-fueled economy and the most recent jobs reports have not been good, despite how Kudlow and the Trump administration wants to spin it.
Click to expand...

You aren't understanding that we haven't seen this kind of international capital flight INTO our country in memory. Why? Ask the ECB and BOJ :confused::arrow:

That's what's funny about the "this time it's different" sarcasm. Tell me the last time two major world economy banks had negative rates. And are buying up more of their broke ass assets. And the Chinese people don't even trust that game they are playing over there, so they take huge losses just for stable (real estate, bonds, etc) assets in the only safe haven = yes, the USA.

We are likely in a stagnant balance sheet type recession, without long term growth the way the leaders want or the people require, so we're now in the political game of "Let's not let this market crash on my watch, especially with all these annoying broke boomer voters who will crush me if it does"

The yield curve 24 hour news cycle scare has been tried already 3 times in the last year, and while I see a market drop of 60+% when it finally does (I've made those guesses elsewhere) it ain't happening for a while still.
 
Laurifer

Laurifer

Woodpecker
Gold Member
Hypno said:
Pot stocks.
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This. Had I gotten into Canadian pot stocks just a year earlier my portfolio balance might be a digit or two longer. Cannot wait for 2020 hype to start pumping American tickers.
 
BURNΞR

BURNΞR

Pelican
Agnostic


Got redpilled by this video.

Basically 10k cash limit is really to push negative interest rates. Based on the MSM articles pushing negative interest rates as a good idea, looking like it's a done deal.

Negatives:
-loss of freedom, need middleman (banks) to do transactions
-loss of privacy
-banks and government can shut you down easier as you are dependent on them since you are limited by how much you can transact with when it comes to cash
-you lose money if you keep it in the bank (-5%?)

Positives:
-negative interest means banks can keep lending so no problem with liquidity (and kick the can forward and cushion countries from a recession)
 
Bazzwaldo

Bazzwaldo

Woodpecker
^^^
Thanks for the link Burner, here's something you or other Aussies may be interested in
There's been a massive jump in M1 Money supply in Australia https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/money-supply-m1
"Money Supply M1 in Australia increased to 1014.60 AUD Billion in July from 360.21 AUD Billion in June of 2019."
That's a 282% increase in one month!
Back of the envelope calculation of total deposits in Australian Banks is AUD $1.8 Trillion Source: https://australia.financialadvisory.com/biggest-banks-by-deposits-australia-2016.html
M0 supply is currently AUD$ 113 Billion or about 6% of total deposits
I think there's some bad news coming and they are gearing up for it
I'm cashing out and sidelining might even top up on PM
 
A

Australia Sucks

Kingfisher
Other Christian
burner while we are on this topic of increasing government control of the financial system it should be noted that Australian government snuck in bail in provisions into some legislation it passed in 2018. Meaning the next banking crises that occurs in Australia banks can use depositors money to bail out the banks. You can read about it here:

https://cecaust.com.au/stop-bail-in-petition
 
Foolsgo1d

Foolsgo1d

Peacock
Kid Twist said:
zoom said:
^^ So Trump is mad that China is supposedly manipulating their currency and yet he expects the FED to manipulate the USD? The guy is a clown.

The yield-curve predicted the last 5 recessions. We're definitely due for a recession in this debt-fueled economy and the most recent jobs reports have not been good, despite how Kudlow and the Trump administration wants to spin it.
Click to expand...

You aren't understanding that we haven't seen this kind of international capital flight INTO our country in memory. Why? Ask the ECB and BOJ :confused::arrow:

That's what's funny about the "this time it's different" sarcasm. Tell me the last time two major world economy banks had negative rates. And are buying up more of their broke ass assets. And the Chinese people don't even trust that game they are playing over there, so they take huge losses just for stable (real estate, bonds, etc) assets in the only safe haven = yes, the USA.

We are likely in a stagnant balance sheet type recession, without long term growth the way the leaders want or the people require, so we're now in the political game of "Let's not let this market crash on my watch, especially with all these annoying broke boomer voters who will crush me if it does"

The yield curve 24 hour news cycle scare has been tried already 3 times in the last year, and while I see a market drop of 60+% when it finally does (I've made those guesses elsewhere) it ain't happening for a while still.
Click to expand...

re busted dudes said:
I’m willing to bet there’s no recession and it just keeps going up. That or the market stays sideways for years.
Click to expand...


Why would you think theres a recession when the media, banks and government are doing their best to hide the fact something very wrong is going on?

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2019...banks-on-wall-street-somebodys-got-a-problem/

According to multiple sources we queried, the New York Fed has not made the names of these banks doing the borrowing available to either the Senate or House committees. And if there is pushback from the Committees, the public is not hearing about it. It was this exact kind of complacency and lack of leadership on the part of Congress in the early days of the financial crisis in 2007 that gave the Fed the guts to press a button and electronically create trillions of dollars to bail out the worst actors on Wall Street as they used large chunks of that money to reward themselves with tens of millions of dollars in bonuses and pay billions of dollars of the bailout money to lawyers to block their being prosecuted for fraud.

Journalists also failed to properly alert the public to the impending crisis – even when warning bells were loudly clanging.

More than a full year before the worst of the crisis, on August 23, 2007 the New York Times ran the headline “4 Major Banks Tap Fed for Financing.” The correct headline should have been: “Largest Banks in U.S. Take Unprecedented Step of Borrowing from the Fed’s Discount Window.” The article should have appeared on the front page but instead was buried on page C10 of the New York print edition.

Throughout the Fed’s history, a bank that is forced to borrow at the discount window because it can’t get loans elsewhere is seen as being in deep distress. That’s why banks don’t do it. The Times did acknowledge the stigma in the eighth paragraph, writing:

“ ‘Going to the discount window is like someone on the Upper East Side being seen in a Wal-Mart,’ said Charles R. Geisst, a financial historian at Manhattan College. ‘The T-shirts may be cheap, but why would you?’ ”

Geisst added: “ ‘The banks are circling the wagons. Somebody’s got a problem.’ ”
Click to expand...


Last one that killed the system was a bottom-up crash. This will be a top-down crash that could finish off the system entirely. The repo market injection should have ended Oct 10th but ofcourse that was just a lie. November it is now. Hundreds of billions already pumped in and still more is required?

Who the hell is getting this money and how can anyone with any financial sense see this as normal? Explain why you think there is nothing to be worried about as some very smart people are saying this is going to be very bad.
 
Emancipator

Emancipator

Hummingbird
Gold Member
Emancipator said:
My current bet (that has paid off well for myself so far, initiated early this year) is on Axsome Therapeutics. Lots of promise on their use of DXM (recreational using it is similar to Ketamine) for MDD. Phase 3 of trials start soon I believe.

With clown world a lot of normies turn to doctors to voice their displeasure with the current world and get slapped with a psych disorder, then get hopped up on old sole SSRIs (ineffective with a bunch of negative side effects). Current trend is to develop non sole-SSRI medications, with many turning to recreational drugs for inspiration, especially with the dissociates class NMDA receptor antagonist (Eskatamine being approved this year by the FDA for example)

In general am a fan of any pharma company that turns to known recreational drugs for products then come up with a way to legally sell it to "treat" something. Often they can get away with stupid high prices as well (take for example Jazz Pharma that makes billions selling Xyrem (GHB) legally for Narcolepsy, and that's extremely niche). Often can just research user reports online on various forums.

Riding it out with house money at this point.
Click to expand...

Exited 80%

900% gain
 
Nolimitz

Nolimitz

Pigeon
@amancipator well done sir.

Was discussing a pharma last night, guy mentioned Amarin...said they got FDA approvals and tapping the cholesterol problem.

Still riding SHOP from IPO, average out 450 and beyond...will look at BTC at that point to flip to.

Obviously market is a charade right now w/ the what central banks are doing....
 
I

Iconoclast007

Woodpecker
I like the Crypto Monero. Physical silver and gold. Farm Land. Small busineses and their assets with recession proof cash flows that require little management. Low end rental apartments.
 
V

Vice_

Chicken
Precious metals miners. They have been able to stay afloat with the current metals prices, and when metals prices take off due to the large amount of time required between finding a new deposit to extracting the first ounce (10 years on average), you can expect a bonanza in the sector, with mergers and acquisitions occurring frequently. Companies with claims to ore that they can't extract efficiently will be absorbed by companies who can. Uneconomical deposits will become feasible as metals prices increase.

Sell when the bud light bro at the office who only talks about watching men grab each others asses (aka sportsball) starts talking about all the money he's been making because his mining company had great assay results after discovering a new vein.

My biggest bet is GORO.
 
BURNΞR

BURNΞR

Pelican
Agnostic
I'm going to retract my statement that said BTC hitting 50-100k in 2020. There will be modest gains to be had (maybe it goes to 12-16k) but the data is telling me the cycles are getting longer and therefore we won't see a huge spike in price in 2020 like we saw in 2017. Unless there is a catalyst event like a Bitcoin ETF approval or Facebook's Libra I expect the price to not go beyond 16k for the entirety of 2020. Still not a bad bet to buy in if you can get in around the 200MA which is roughly $5500.
 
Nolimitz

Nolimitz

Pigeon
Big IF on touching the 200MA. I’m of the opinion that there will be another alt season. Not to mention that S&P is in bubble territory. What a time to be alive.
 
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